Vivid Examples of Successes and Failures. And a post 12 years Old Standing Taller than Ever!

Morning Folks!!


In the days ahead the new .whatevers will be revealed. Many of you will have domains that are instantly worth millions more than they are today. Millions. Now that does not mean they will recognize that fact. But water runs downhill no matter what some might believe or want to believe.


So a Huge Pizza Place opens on 59 Atlantic STREET. But you own a tiny hole in the wall pizza place at 59 Atlantic AVENUE. He advertises, you grow. He advertises more, you grow more. He gets pissed, you laugh your ass off. He gets more pissed, you laugh harder and harder and make more and more. You laugh because you know you never did anything wrong and while the other guy is pissed and it is directed at you, he should be pissed at his own actions. Not you, who did nothing and was just the beneficiary of life. You got lucky! You were then smart enough to capitalize on it. That's what you do in a capitalistic system.


You expand your business because you are doing so well and the other guy is barely surviving. The last thing you want to do is see that guy go out of business. On the other hand, if he does go out of business, he has built an incredible business for you. Maybe you will even take over his location because he never understood that he may have been able to buy your little hole in the wall before he built his place and avoided all this. Maybe it never crossed his mind. Maybe he did not know. Maybe this or maybe that. But if he could rewind, maybe that would have been the best decision. Maybe that would have made a difference and a different outcome. Maybe?? BULLSHIT! As I have stated over and over and over again, success or failure comes at the very start of any journey. Here is a perfect illustration of a guy sailing from New York to London and ending up in Africa then blaming some third party not even on the ship or connected in any way, shape or form.


Gotta love what is to come. Many are going to get angry when they discover how it really works. Whether online or in the real world. If you want to have a really good chance of success in the real world, build a hamburger stand next to the steak house. You'll do just fine.


But this is nothing new as I showed above and how about 800 numbers and 855 numbers. 800 is the .com equivalent. This is not the most vivid comparison. But if one guy is 800-OIL-CANS and the other guy is 855-OIL-CANS, the 855 guy is going to lose a percentage of traffic not only to the 800 number but in this case, his competitor.


.whatever without the dotcom will make some folks instantly rich. It truly is a lottery. Not one any of us knew would be this big or uncontrolled. But the sanctioned 'Clusterf*ck' is coming. .Property increases the value of Property.com. Period! How much? Well that depends on may factors. First whether the .Property will even become a viable extension. Of the 2000 +/- extensions coming online, I don't see more than a handful enjoying much success and I predict rapid and massive consolidation as some of these folks collapse under their own overheads.


Now let me be clear, there is always money to be made with things that don’t work. There will be a market and an aftermarket. The argument is the size and importance of that market. The viability and the longevity. The profitability and all the rest.


You can be certain that the majority of extensions will fail. That does not mean those that survive will be meaningful. I would be thrilled beyond belief to even see a potential candidate to rival .com. Possibly .web or some other generic extension that makes sense and has something to offer. But that is a tall task and you would have to have one hell of a marketing plan to pull it off. That said, you can never predict what the consumer will REJECT! I mean without some compelling original content, most folks will quickly realize that the .whatever is just another backdoor to .com and it will be over before it starts.


I know several folks we all know are going after hundreds of extensions. I don't wish any of them ill and I hope they prove me wrong. If I can identify any that I think could work or have a reason to work or a plan to work I will speak out in support. But when I have facts that say 61% leakage, I will point to that as well. To me it is a poison pill to those that don't know better. But hey, that's business. People have the freedom to make mistakes.


I always look to the history of radio, TV, AM, FM, Stereo, Telephone, Cell Phone etc. There will always be parallels.


Here is a post I made on Thanksgiving Day of 2000. An ancient post in domain years. This would be BD. Before Domaining. See if that compass lines up today. See if I could have written that post this morning. But it was clear to my eyes 12 years ago and before then. I always knew there would be great expansion. But what does it mean? That is the question and my answer then is the same as it is today.


“For those that think there are no more GOOD .coms......then the chances are you couldn't get laid in a whorehouse. :-) Just means you are not creative enough or have given up too early. :-(


For ANY other .whatever, the ONLY thing that will make it prominent is heavy advertising by MANY different companies. So far TRILLIONS have been spent on .com. Let us project .com spending for 2001. TRILLIONS!!! .net......maybe a few million, .org..............maybe $50 million On the others, your guess is as good as mine but I don't see MILLIONS. Even down the road.....they will ALWAYS want their .com version of whatever they end up with.


The more extensions that come out, the more valuable .com will be.


Look at it this way. porno.com does well. Let's say porno.tv comes along. If he spends millions on advertising........don't I benefit as the .com owner? And if he becomes big enough he may WANT if not NEED the .com version. However the reverse is not true because the value of the .tv has a much lower value than the .com. And for VERY good reason imho.


Oh well.....enough spewing for today. lol


Have a happy and safe holiday for us Pilgrims!!


Rick Schwartz


Thu Nov 23 09:53:48 2000 - 172.168.217.164 - message #7503


Folks, I see this as a straight line with detours that some take. Detours with cliffs. Detours without the .com foundation and highway to insure and protect them. The first decision is always the biggest and not having the .com of anything is a costly mistake that is a lifetime bill. So I will look at .whatever success as those limited to owners of the .com. That would make it useful for brands. I am sure .Apple will be picked up by Apple. When and if they use it or not is another story. But that has nothing to do with domainers. Apple won't be selling domains and domainers won't be investing in them. None of the brands will. So take that group right off the table.


The geo .whatevers may have the best chance. But even they might be limited to the worlds top destinations and none will be immune from traffic leakage. NONE! The only question becomes does it leak back into your business by owning the .com and being able to reclaim that traffic or does it leak to your #1 competitor as I have described above? Those that won't even address that, won't even talk about that, won't even consider that are doomed because almost all success or failure happens RIGHT NOW! The first steps. When everyone is in a rush to make decisions without considering all ramifications and that is where they crash. Then 'I' can come along and point out how one bad call brought the whole project down before it was even launched and much time, dollars and months or years of energy and life were wasted.


Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

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31 thoughts on “Vivid Examples of Successes and Failures. And a post 12 years Old Standing Taller than Ever!

  1. Mr.T

    “I would be thrilled beyond belief to even see a potential candidate to rival .com. Possibly .web or some other generic extension that makes sense and has something to offer.”
    .TV may still be a little too much of a niche extension, and it’ll probably never compete with .com directly, but it surely has picked up speed this year in terms of sales and end-user development.

    Reply
  2. Mike

    You sound like a broken record man.
    So you think .com is better than .whatever. We get it now.
    Try and come up with a new topic in the next post will you…

    Reply
  3. Ian

    The only thing that will rivial the .com is something that becomes the standard. No geo extension will have sufficient generic capability that it will be adopted across the world.
    The biggest threat to .com is apps connected to private networks. But even then they still need an initial doorway.
    There is one extension that I would have gone after and it will be interesting to see whether it is allocated.

    Reply
  4. Kevin

    In real estate, it’s Location Location Location
    In domaining, it’s .Com .Com .Com
    and that ain’t gonna change anytime soon.

    Reply
  5. Warren Royal

    Wow, your clarity on the TLD issue all the way back in 2000 is amazing. Thank you, Rick, for continuing to share your insights with us.

    Reply
  6. rob sequin

    “As I have stated over and over and over again, success or failure comes at the very start of any journey.”
    I still like your”ladder against the right wall” comment suggesting people make sure the ladder is leaning against the right wall before you start climbing it.
    If you haven’t read Sun Tzu’s Art of War http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Art_of_War you should read it.
    “Every battle is won before it is fought”
    Same concept as your journey and ladder concepts… each side possesses certain resources, abilities, knowledge etc that, when coordinated properly, can predict the outcome.

    Reply
  7. Anunt

    Dot com is ancient history. There is a whole new shift coming but domainers are too blind and ignorant to see this. If u live in a small world where there are less than 10 new gTLDs, then yes, dot com would still remain king…BUT there are thousands of new gTLDs coming that make much more sense because they are actual words with meaning instead of just a dot com which means nothing to the average Joe.
    Technology moves very fast…dot com will be lost in this new shift. Millions and millions of dollars are being invested by huge corporations.
    To understand all this, you have to first stop thinking like domainers and put yourself in average Joe’s shoes.
    When you see John Jones thru John Jones eyes, you will sell John Jones what John Jones buys.

    Reply
  8. TLD Inferno

    This should be required reading at Harvard Business School. I’m not joking.
    This post might be your legacy. It might not be recognized any time soon, but one day it will be resurrected and shown off as very ahead of it’s time.
    Nobody really appreciates a real domainer’s knowledge base, and in fact it is not appreciated at all, but those of that are schooled in domains have a knowledge set that is unparalleled, and therefor have insights others don’t.
    Your vision will unfold EXACTLY as you say. I’ve thought about this a lot and came to the same conclusion.
    I wish I could see everyone’s face that buys a TLD when they have that light bulb moment realizing the grave error they have made. It really is sad they don’t better.
    It is going to be a brutal, cold lesson. Even some schooled domainers will go down that rabbit hole and will get burnt, others will make some quick money before the”word” gets out about traffic leakage.
    I bet the lawyers are tickled pink. :(

    Reply
  9. Scott Neuman

    Mike, I personally enjoy reading someone that is successful (more so then myself) at what he does. I’m reminded of what my communications professor told me. Regardless of how good or bad Barbara Streisands music will be, someone will also buy it. Because you’ll always find gems when you listen. It’s when you stop listening, that you stop learning.

    Reply
  10. @Domains

    I agree 100% with your post predictions on the new gtld’s.
    If there was no .us extension, most would think it would be a natural and used heavily by people in the USA. But it has been around for many years and still has only minor acceptance.
    How will new gtld’s expand in a world that has already accepted other extensions? Most will reach or fall short of the status of .info and .biz which are the preview of these new gtlds.
    There will be some big single name sales here and there, a few will have moderate success, but i don’t see anything bigger beyond that.

    Reply
  11. Emma

    Rick! I know you hate me because I speak the truth. When you talk about leakage(traffic from other extensions leaking to .com), can you clear quantify the approximate percentage of type-in traffic versus the the traffic through search engine? This way we will know if leaking to .com is so serious that you can’t do business with other extension. In other words, can’t someone be successful with just through-search engine traffic?

    Reply
  12. Elon

    You guys watch out!!
    There are meaningful, impacful extensions coming down the pipeline…
    .jobs
    .travel
    .TV
    .mobile
    .me
    .xxx
    .pro
    .info
    Oh wait? …
    for the last 5-10 years these have already been pushed, shoved, and marketed down our collective throats by billionaires and well-known brands…results… immaterial impact
    “immaterial impact” from 25 existing gtlds multiplied by 100+ = small impact from 2,500 future gtlds

    Reply
  13. TLDTornado

    In addition to web leakage, there will be email leakage and interception. Say, for example, you own bank.com. How many people will send emails to name@blahblah.bank.com instead of name@blahblah.bank? It may be 1%, it may be 5% — but the security implications of knowing the companion dotcom domain WILL be reading some % of your email, inaddition to getting the leakage traffic… the well funded .whatever’s will likely wind up buying the whatever.com’s, or, like Rick says, possibly even the other way around once the dust settles.

    Reply
  14. Donny M

    The trust factor with a .com will never go away. Never.
    If your advertising on adwords/or any other ppc service and you put two names or campaigns side by side, such as 123johndoe.com vs 123johndoe.info your click conversion will be higher with .com.
    Even if your conversion rate was 2% compared to 1.5% for .info how much are you losing? on that campaign.
    Millions are lost each year because companies don’t own the .com.
    I think the comparison that Rick mentioned about 1800 numbers relates the same way but in a different way.
    But with the next extensions money is to made so it will be very exciting. >.web makes sense to me not sure about anything else.
    Donny M
    idomainmedia.com

    Reply
  15. M

    @TLDTornado
    “In addition to web leakage, there will be email leakage and interception. Say, for example, you own bank.com. How many people will send emails to name@blahblah.bank.com instead of name@blahblah.bank? It may be 1%, it may be 5% — but the security implications of knowing the companion dotcom domain WILL be reading some % of your email, inaddition to getting the leakage traffic… the well funded .whatever’s will likely wind up buying the whatever.com’s, or, like Rick says, possibly even the other way around once the dust settles.”
    This is SO important. WTF are they going to do when people inevitably add .COM to the end of an email ? It WILL happen and it will be a disaster for the new gTLD’s. EMAILS being sent to the wrong person or just never being received. Oh boy.

    Reply
  16. BullS

    Right ON…Sir
    The folks who know the truth aren’t talking. The ones who don’t have a clue, you can’t shut them up

    Reply
  17. Altaf

    @Owen & @ Rob:
    Thanks for the great stuff. But IMO they should have included one more chapter- sources of funds, budget or resources, required for winning the war.

    Reply
  18. Jeff Schneider

    Hello Rick,
    All extensions outside the superior dotCOM extension, act as water floating the superior,”Virtual Business Foundations” found only in the dotCom Brand, to the top of the pyramid. GREAT Visionary posts both of them!
    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)

    Reply
  19. Jorge Ramirez

    I sent you an email few months back but perhaps you missed it.
    I always wonder why do I have to get my domain appraised in order to be able to sell it through sedo, flippa or similar places? I’ve had a few domains for a few years, first one still since 99′, and have not sold any or have even tried because of that reason, I want what I want not what a company or person tells me I should ask or will get. I think like in real estate if a buyer wants to pay 10 times for that house because he wants it then who cares what the city or an appraiser says. An example is my neighbor recently over paid for an empty small house lot he wanted because he was going to build his dream house. Sure he over paid but that was his choice. I think like this and like you on domains too and I have been following you for few years now so I guess I am not wrong in some of my thinking. I value my domains and appraise them at what I think it is worth to a potential ‘end user’ not sedo or others. I do have a few parked at sedo now and with a ‘make an offer’ just to test, but I am not going to sell it for less than what I want or think it is worth to an end user.
    I want to start selling a few now but for example, I have entiresky.com on sedo and received an offer few a weeks back but according to sedo I cannot list it for more than 10k unless sedo appraises it and not that I mind the fee, but then I am sure once sedo does this they may come back and say it is really only worth 10k or 100k because it has no traffic or content or too new or whatever reason they have. But I don’t care what sedo says ( not complaining about sedo just using them as an example ), so I want to offer it for no less that 1Million and willing to wait 10 more years or for Nasa, Google or that end user that is willing to pay me that now because they know what they will do with it and has the funds to make it worth 100Million in a few years.
    I am still confused on this and wonder if there is a site/place out there where I can park my domains, list the price at whatever price I want and wait, and then raise or lower the price when I want. Even if I have to pay the person, company or the site where I parked it and selling though a percentage, I would not mind but is there a site? If there is NO such place then I guess I will create my own site just to list my own domains. Just like you and a few others here already do this I know, but pros like you I usually read that you will not take domains unless you think it is worth what you think it is worth, and not list or promote what I would want, but perhaps I am missing something LOL
    I hope you don’t mind this long rant/question here or if you or other experts here that I follow too, can help me figure this out or you or anyone can reply or even email me jrami12 at gmail.com
    BTW, I’m right here in Miami and will try this year to go attend T.R.A.F.F.I.C, just hopefully if I can sell at least one domain by then.
    Thanks,
    Jorge

    Reply
  20. domain guy

    consistant,precise and accurate…however with google using right of the dot in search and top domainers diveric,schilling involved in the tld process change is coming.yes there will be leakage,
    many new tlds will die on the vine,few will renew their 185k application and the public will take notice to right of the dot.
    with so much public awareness and money flowing into the space their will be 31 flavors.and new oppertunities
    I think one of the next things to watch for is the value corrulation between the .com and the viable .whatever comparable.the aftermarket
    will highlight the values.and the benchmarking will be in the appraisals.and this will be one of your future posts.
    franks vision is perfect and the best article I have seen on the issue.and the correct call on missing the dot.like a lazer through a peephole!

    Reply
  21. L

    I totally agree with Ricks insight here. There will be a lot of money made in ‘getting ahead of potential change’, but my money’s on the paradigm until I see it’s foundation crack.
    One thing that isn’t getting enough discussion is that even if the paradigm is destined to shift eventually, it may take so long for it to happen that there’s still a shitton of money to be made on .com in the meantime.
    Some people were screaming about a Florida real estate bubble in 2003. They were seeing huge tract developments being built with 10% occupancy rates, only for some other developer to break ground on a new tract development next door, with a 0% occupancy rate. It was all being financed by a bond market who bundled mortgages of ‘investors’ who had Internet Only Mortgages on 19 properties with those written on owner occupied SFDs… while properties were gaining 25% a year, as wages remained stagnant.
    It was a fucking joke and it doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to dig up an awful lot of people who saw it in advance, warned of it’s outcome but were shouted down by retarded Pollyannas with calls of”BUT THE RETIREES ARE COMING!!!! THEY WILL SOAK IT ALL UP!!! THE MARKET IS STILL STRONG!!!”
    The problem with acting on it in 2002 was, the bubble didn’t start hissing until 2006, popped in 2007, but man, there was a TON of money to be made in those intervening 4 years.
    So, if .com dies eventually, fine. That might happen, but if it takes 30 years for the mountain to move, some of the people talking in this thread will have died of old age, others, deep into their golden years, others, retiring.
    Being too early is just as bad as being too late.

    Reply
  22. Bill W

    @jorge
    Just curious….does entiresky.com actually get any type in traffic?

    Reply
  23. Rick Schwartz

    Sales is about need, desire, want. I don’t see these elements present and I think I have a perfect example.
    if your phone number was 201-123-4567 how many companies would go out and register that number in every area code??? How about NONE! They may go after some adjacent areas they serve, but the 800 number for $10 a month trumps 900 incoming phone lines at a cost of $25/per line per month more or less. $22,500 a MONTH vs $10 a MONTH. Even if you were to have”Ghost Lines” today you would pay $5-$10 each per month. Back then, it would have been much more plus the cost of installation and since there was no call forwarding, your system would have to have 900 incoming lines. I use this as a way to show a silly business decision and also a parallel.
    However he would go and try to get 800-123-4567. There you had a need and a desire and it filled a hole. Fortified what you are doing. would he get 888-123-4567? He might. He might not. But the 888 in this case might be .net or .org or even .tv or .co. However that train stops there. Brands may go after country codes but your average business has no use and no value to them.
    Front Door is a main entrance to a business.
    800 number is a main entrance to a business.
    local phone number is a main entrance to a business.
    email address is a main entrance to a business
    snail mail is a main entrance to a business
    .com is the king among all other entrances along with the front door from nowhere in 20 years.
    THAT’S IT!! There are no more main entrances other than possibly apps.
    Every thing else are side doors at best.

    Reply
  24. Joao

    I was talking with some domainers in a forum about this the other day.
    If we have 1000 new extensions coming up (and i am already taking 1000 more out from the equation), with less than half the budget .CO had for marketing (lets say 10 million$), we will see 10 billion dollars spent in marketing alone, by all players.
    10 billion dollars advertising domaining in general.
    The average Joe will understand that there is a dot something out there, but the truth is that too many extensions at the same time will confuse people.
    That confusion will create a taper effect on people heads, and they will turn to the extension that they rely the most.
    Domaining will be a trend that will strenght the business itself, but not the new extensions.
    Of course, this doesn’t mean that some extensions won’t have success. I believe some will have a tremendous success and good for them.

    Reply

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