With 900 Horses, How many Winners do you Need to Pick?

Morning Folks!!

So Let's just say for a moment that these are the current top 20 extensions. I am sure I have it wrong because I included a couple that came to market with great fanfare. Remember the hype on .ws? "World Site". How are those babies doing today? How many of you invested in .ws and made money?

.com, .net, .org, .info, .biz, .mobi, .me, .tv, .us, .xxx, .co, .ca, .de, .co.uk, .eu, .cc, .in, .ws, .es, .mx

So let's further agree that with 900 horses in the race, it is not our job to pick 1-900 in the right order. At the track, it you get the top 2 right you get the daily double. If you get the first 3 right, you get the trifecta. Both pay very well because it is not easy to do.

So how many do you pick if you want to "Dabble"? I think most would agree that the top 10 are where one might one to focus their efforts IF they are going down this road. But even 20 as listed above. Are those 20 all meaningful to you?

Me? I would just worry about trying to pick the winner. Because if that is my focus, chances are they will be in the top 2 or 3 anyways.

So 900 horses at the gate. Many are just not thoroughbreds no matter how you slice it. I think we can agree on that as well.

So wouldn't a savvy investor at least start by eliminating those horses that have no chance of being in contention?

20 Slots in the race for the top 20 extensions. So instead of these guys making wild assumptions about a range of things that are not in their control, they might start by explaining why they are in the top 20. And if they are not in the top 20, why are they wasting our time? And money?

Their focus is out of focus.

With limited strings on some gTLD's does that make for a viable extension? Commercially viable? Investor viable? Long Term? Short Term?

If valid questions and points scare a gTLD, RUN!

These are all valid. These are all questions an investor SHOULD ask. Should know.

So anyone trying to put US on the spot is way off the mark! It is their job to convince us. It is not our job to be convinced. As an investor we would be morons not to be skeptical. They have to overcome the hurdle, not us. So ask them, "Why is your extension going to be 1 of the top 10?" I mean top 10  of the new ones and who knows where they will find their home in the overall list above and the hundreds beyond.

And this is a train. A falter by one could affect others. Missteps, misstatements, and even having JUST TODAY DomainIncite.com report an advertising shut down with 1 and 1, plus stupid and unresearched stories like this one from Chicago Grid that thedomains.com covered in today's news. Each with unknown and uncertain consequences. None that are good.

Rick Schwartz

The Rick Schwartz Equation

Morning Folks!!

Go brew a pot of coffee, this is going to take a few minutes. What started as a simple equation blossomed into all types of adventures and mis-steps and examples in real-time that absolutely support my equation. An equation that may be all but lost in the clutter of events that just had great timing and so here we are. I think the word "Clusterf*ck" is just going to be more spot on with every passing day. I thought it would happen in very slow motion, but it is accelerating even faster than I would have imagined and I suggest there will be popcorn to replace the coffee by the end of this post.

We all see what we see and we all know what we know.  I come to conclusions early based on certain elements that fit in my personal equation. This equation filters out CRAP, HYPE and NOISE. It filters out the losers FIRST and spotlights the winners NEXT. That makes my job easier and pisses off the ones that don't win and/or don't count as much. Those folks have a tougher job to convince me and other people whether domainers or end users to buy into their vision.

Each new gTLD has or SHOULD HAVE a separate vision.  Is that not a reasonable assumption? I have learned many do not as stunning as it sounds. So is it my fault for asking about the "Vision" thing?

I have been writing this blog post for over 2 weeks now and I have been deciding whether to post it or not. Meanwhile I just keep working on it and whether it sees the light of day will just depend on who knows what. But events just keep unfolding that dovetail with what I have been saying.

I have written extensively about the new gTLD's EARLY to be on record and to be REAL and that showed a vivid difference in how and WHEN  I view the world compared to many others. And in my view of the world, nothing happens until a sale is made and I did my best to explain that. And while people throw around invisible sales numbers without actually ever making a sale, well, that is a MAJOR red flag to me. I know how hard sales is. I know how hard sustaining sales is. I know how hard growing sales is. I also know the difference between a solid sale and a weak sale. A sale that will survive and a sale that will collapse or end up being a loss.

I see things early for a reason and it is based on an equation.

I have gotten several emails about Moniker.com and their problems this week and folks want me to write about it. Well I did, 3 YEARS ago when I transferred all my domains out. It was not my first post on the subject as you will see. The Moniker mess happened 3 YEARS ago but the train wreck happened last week. Folks had AMPLE opportunity to heed the warnings. I still have about 14 domains there. Mostly .tel. But thousands were moved away. 

There will be a lot of elbows flying in gTLD land as we have seen with the firestorm of last week with Negari and Network Solutions, that just continues and now the plot thickens as Berryhill, Corwin, Negari and the ICA join others in the industry for a circular firing squad.

The skirmishes will intensify and broaden as there are a lot of competing interests. There are a lot of ponies in this horse race and the rails on either side are not enough to contain them. So you are going to see a vivid example of some raw nerves between other gTLD operators develop. You can't see this coming? Really?? REALLY????

Why is this a sure bet???

SALES BABY! SALES! They NEED sales. They are drowning without sales. They are choking for cash as it is in many cases. That is THEIR reality.

Not only that, but If you play in a game you set up with no rules, then don't complain when somebody breaks the rules or extends the boundary lines. Where does HYPE turn the corner and become DECEPTION? There are the nuances that are in play here. The debate is wide and the fallout is still in progress. The answers are murky. Deal with it. It's just part of the clusterf*ck that will play out in time.

I also understand that many bloggers are under a lot of pressure from different camps to write positive stories about them or gTLD's in general. Some have just about lost their entire credibility. Even Howard is pressuring me not to post things I am about to say. But I could give a rats ass about getting another sponsor or not. I won't sell my soul for that. If they can't figure it out, so be it. I will say what I BELIEVE and not what my FRIENDS want me to say.

Hats off to those like Konstantinos Zournas, MIke Berkens, Ron Jackson,  Kevin Murphy and others that report whatever facts they can find and I know for a fact that the pressure these bloggers are under is IMMENSE. And they are getting it from both sides. 

Sales have to be created and WE and everyone else has a RIGHT and a DUTY as well as an obligation to be skeptical if you are a serious investor.  You should EXPECT to have you feet held to the fire. Especially since we already had prior evidence that only a fool would ignore of how previous tld's have fared in our short history.

How do you create a sale?

You start with NEED, WANT and DESIRE. And in our case you can add SUPPLY and DEMAND. Other variables as well as you are about to see. And there are even more obstacles than I am going to discuss that is why I wrote so many posts coming at things from various ways and all of them had huge pitfalls. These are compounded obstacles and I am not sure any can survive them all. Especially when they are blind to them.

That said......

How do you create sales when you don't start with NEED, WANT and DESIRE from the right party and the supply is unlimited and the demand is almost non-existent and self-made??? And keep in mind, over 80% of all registrations are by domainers and the Registry's themselves or closely held companies. aka, Bag of smoke. Some say 90%. They say 33% and that is just laughable.

How do folks KNOW they need something they don't even know exists to begin with? This is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to exponential. Many icebergs because everyone at least gets hungry. Of course business may suck if you are a hamburger stand setting up shop at a vegetarian convention and you have no veggie burgers.

Hold on to your horses, it will all make sense soon to anyone that can have a warped thinking process like me.

This is NOT bashing gTLD's. It may as well be zoombibie stands. The RESULT would be almost the same.  What's a "Zoombibie stand"? A Zoombibie stand is as foreign and unknown to you as gTLD's are to the end-user.  Got that? Do you need one??? How long have you lived without a zoombibie?? Really?? Whose job is it to sell you that Zoombibie that you don't know about and probably could care less about? What color is yours? What happens when a competitor comes in and they have to SPLIT the zoombibie market?? Are only distributors buying zoombibies and they can't resell to the end-user?

The commodity you have does not matter. Coffee shops, hamburger stands. Lemonade stands, pizza joints. You name it. The thing with gTLD's, they are exponentially harder and few want to take the time to truly examine why.

The keyword is CREATE.

Zoombibie has to CREATE sales!

But to create sales, there has to be a DEMAND to begin with.

And you do that with REASONS.
REASONS are the SEEDS of PERSUASION.

(Reasons have to be valid. In sales, when you get caught in a lie, game over)

But first you have to CIRCULATE.

And you have to know how big your AUDIENCE is.

So that you can TARGET them properly.

Assuming there is DEMAND

We know there is DEMAND by several groups. The Registry, the Registrar and the speculative domainer. The speculative domainer is not the customer of the Registry as they have made pretty clear. But the same Registry is depending on the market makers who are the speculative domainers to make things happen. Sounds like a HUGE disconnect to me and many are starting to pay the price for that wrong-minded thinking process.


How big is the zoombibie audience? You still don't know what a zoombibie is? This isn't your grandfathers zoombibie. This is a much better and bigger zoombibie that will allow you to do more things. Just don't ask about what specific things they are. Way too deep.

Sorry for the caps in this post but this is more of an equation and a theory than paragraphs. And you also have to know that THEY (the consumer in any form they come in) are in control of all of their destiny's. If they don't eat the smelly fish or the rotten meat, the restaurant closes and goes out of business. PERIOD! No matter the hype.


Nobody on this planet woke up this morning looking for a zoombibie. But you NEED it because I said so. Isn't that a good reason?? 


Today alone we say .Berlin start giving their extension away for FREE! When you can't sell something, you give it away. They more than doubled their 48,000 registrations in less than 24 hours. EXPECT others to follow suit. That is definitely going to screw up the marketing plans of other registries that are already choking for cash. It gets UGLY from here on out folks. Can't see that one either?? REALLY??

 

So if you subscribe to this quasi-equation, and I do, then many will be able to see what I see and why I don't take MOST of the gTLDs seriously at this point in time.  That does not mean I am right and that does not mean I can't be PERSUADED.  But my job is not to persuade myself. That's THEIR job and they need many reasons that are VALID to get there. Tough questions are survived by straight answers and that is how you tell a solid and good product or service. Then I might buy a zoombibie. Right now, I can live without it. 


This just means that I have a method behind my handicapping that has served me well for decades and I am just sharing my mental process of one of the ways I might reach a conclusion or form an opinion. But that does not mean I can not be persuaded. But that only comes with solid information and benefits. A VISION that holds up against reality and scrutiny. Imagine a car salesman being afraid to answer questions about the vehicle he is selling. He wants to make a quick buck and you are looking for long-term reliable transportation. Not exactly a win-win. Once he lies about one thing, you can only do one thing. LEAVE! And that is exactly what most folks would do.


Someone wins, someone loses. If you invest unwisely LIKE SO MANY DO, you are going to be at the wrong end of that equation. As long as you are prepared and EXPECT to lose 100%, then you are okay. No worries.  But expect to lose 100% TIMES however many years you keep each domain name.


Folks want to hear what they want and they want to ignore what they want. Folks are afraid to state the obvious or even truly examine both sides to get to a proper balance without forcing the wanted outcome. To me .ceo,.rich and .horse are extensions that are in real danger of dying on the vine. They will be joined by many others. How can I be so certain??? Please just study the equation. It is a roadmap. Look at the STALLED daily registrations. .Rich has had THREE registrations in the last FIVE WEEKS! STUDY the numbers, they are pathetic at best. This is their debut. Demand does not look very high and a new broom sweeps clean.


Just days before the original launch in January I posted this on my blog about .Club and how they were the ones doing it right and now you can look back and see how it DOVETAILED with REALITY! It appears they have the most human placed registrations.


Figuring it out and getting it RIGHT EARLY counts and it is the equation above that makes picking winners and losers EASIER! Cutting to the chase has value. Knowing the answer before the question is asked has value. Great value in some cases. And I am not conceding that the most registrations = the most valuable gTLD or the one to invest in if any. But this is the yard stick many seem to be using for the sake of discussion. So it is our only measuring stick at the moment since there is little else to point to. Just keep this yardstick in mind as well. .mobi as a Registry is a total success. .Mobi as an Investment is a total failure. Can't folks LEARN and understand that equation?? I could give a rats ass about the success of a Registry. We are talking about investing. Until you separate the two, good luck going broke!


With 1400 new extensions those that think they will all survive and then also be meaningful are either not dealing with reality or have not been in business long enough to understand how business works. How sheer numbers work. So if they were to LOGICALLY look at the 1400, and right now we have about 125 LIVE, they can already see which ones are in DANGER of either dying on the vine, never getting any recognition or traction or just not being meaningful or relevant at all. PigeonShit gTLD's for a lack of a better phrase. This is the first heat of TEN segments to get to that 1400 number. I think I clearly picked the winner of this phase. Until I see the CONSUMER actually EMBRACE these new extensions, it's all inside baseball. The consumer hold all the wildcards.  There are several layers of consumers. But I am talking about end users and the actual person on the street.


So the first thing to do logically is remove the DEAD HORSES OFF THE TRACK!


Did you watch the race on Saturday? Imagine that race with 1400 horses in the SAME gate and the LOGICAL first question would be how many would be TRAMPLED in the STAMPEDE getting out of the gate!?? How many other horses will trip on the dead horses and also go down? Just logical questions. The ultimate question is who will win the race? I guess if you were LOGICAL you would say to yourself that I may not be able to pick the winner right away but if I pick the top 10 horses and isolate them I have a much better chance. Most bet on one horse and MOST lost. Even the gtld tracker tracks the top 10 and all the "Others" are lumped into one category. "other". Why?? Who came in 10th in the race n Saturday? Nobody knows and nobody cares.


And that means that 1390 gTLD's will be NAGS  Or maybe it will be 1300. Not a huge difference. Most will be meaningless is the only point I am trying to make. MOST. The majority. So that means they did not die on the vine, they are just as irrelevant as .aero and .travel are today along with many more that nobody wants to really invest in. How many times do you have to see the same SAD movie and still hope for a HAPPY ENDING?


How many want to bet on California Chrome to win the Belmont and the Triple Crown today? Place your bets! He LOST! Sorry. We all rooted for him to win. But he LOST. REALITY! See that is not being against gTLD's folks, that's called not being stupid and dealing with reality. We can do the what ifs all day long. But he lost. Yes, he lost because of a GASH inflicted by another horse and we will see that with gTLD's as well.  So if a gash did the damage to change history imagine what 1000 dead horses will do to change it.


Sorry folks. There is no happy ending to this movie. Get your Kleenex out!


And then all this wraps right back around to:

How do you create NEED, WANT and DESIRE?

The keyword is CREATE.

And you do that with REASONS and BENEFITS.

REASONS are the SEEDS of PERSUASION.

BENEFITS are what is important to your customer not what is important to the seller.

And you make the sale with a LOGICAL argument to support your vision.


What grade would you like to give the marketing so far folks? Invisible marketing seems to be on top of that heap don't ya think? If you don't buy into my zoombibie, you are a moron and you are old school and you are an idiot. lol. GREAT marketing!


Efficacythe ability to produce a desired or intended result. I don't see that as a widespread ability when it comes to gTLD's.  Do you??


Besides all these GIVEN headwinds, it is my belief that many of these guys already missed their window of opportunity to market their extensions. As even Michael Berkens has said many times, these are the weaker extensions for the most part. So that means when they DID have their day in the sun they were incapable of taking advantage of THEIR "Unique Opportunity in time". The train is gone for many of them already. I hear they did not have the money to promote and all the rest. Whose fault is that? Whose lack of vision was that? Whose going to be holding the bag when it is all said and done?


Sure there were ICANN delays. Well in business you have to expect things like that and be prepared for it.


So that TRAIN leads DIRECTLY to consolidation. They can't see that one either?? Really? REALLY????


See in my silly view of the world I think it is unreasonable to see why .ceo would be a good investment because no coherent argument can be made for the viability and a REASON to PARK money there. And when the registry comes out with "Their" reasons, they don't dovetail with reality. Everyone laughs and dismisses.


Now I don't mean to pick on .ceo all the time but it is the most glaring example next to .Rich which is just too funny to even spend any time on. And I think .Horse has no better chance of being important and worthy to INVEST in as betting TODAY than California Chrome will win the Triple Crown last Saturday. In any test you usually look and set aside the top and bottom scores. .Web for me is the top score on the chart and .Rich is the bottom score on the chart for me.Actually the bottom is CRAMMED with losers yet to be declared DEAD ON THE VINE.


And let me also state for the record that number if registrations is not the yard stick for measuring success of ANY gTLD.


CONTENT is the key to the survival of any extension. And in this cases, BETTER content is going to be EXPECTED.  So when you look at this onion you can peel it so many different ways and into different conversations. Just be prepared to hold on to those as long as I have to hold on to .mobi. I have great keywords. Big deal!


And there are so many obstacles now after that. Consumer acceptance is always the key to any success. Beta was better. Did not matter. Ask Sony. So these obstacles and facts can even contradict each other. And my main point is the path forward is not straight it is splintered and the pitfalls immense. And as we have seen and as I have said for over a year now, one bad deed with one spills over to all. Anyone doubt that one now?? We have just seen the beginning of this show and the abuses. I am sure a site will pop up that will chronicle all the abuses that are taking place. I have already lost count. It WILL get MUCH worse.



I always started with my parents. They were my test cases throughout most of my life. They represented Mid-America and how the majority would react to any given new thing. Their input was more valuable than anyone else. So I do miss that part of my equation.



You can see once you talk about gTLD's one thing leads to another and the whole thing just has not been well thought out and with 1200 MORE to go, the ABUSE and the HYPE has not even started. I have written over a dozen posts just in regards to the horse race and how important and how hard it will be to pick the winners at THIS stage. And what happens to these "Weak" extensions when the strong ones like .web come to life?


We are an intelligent group and we get to ask tough questions and if folks don't like it because they have no answers, that is their choice. I say the numbers are pathetic. Let me define it with this. The day .Web comes to market (and I am not touting .web, but it is just the Odds on Favorite) is the day you will see pathetic defined.  That is an extension we will be counting by the millions and they will LIKELY have more registrations in the first few HOURS than all the gTLD's in the first few MONTHS. Just a FACT waiting to be BORN. Can't see it from here?? Really?? But you can see the value of gTLD's in 10-20 years?? Sorry, that dog won't hunt with me. Don't talk about 10-20 years when some folks doing the talking can't see 10-20 hours, days, weeks or months in front of them.


Is there money to be made in the new gTLD's by domain investors? YES.  But Registry's making money on YOU have nothing to do with your gamble/investment. Chances are more money will be lost 100 times over than made. We can only predict and see how things unfold. But ignoring and not examining all sides of an issue because of peer pressure...........really? Investors NEED to be skeptical regardless of the WANTS and DESIRES of others.


As I said yesterday and will repeat often: "NO DOMAIN INVESTOR has ANY OBLIGATION to support ANY new gTLD whatsoever, so don't buy into that nonsense. On the other hand the gTLD's have an obligation to treat domain investors a lot better than they have.  They need us not the other way around.


We had a superhighway come to be in the early 1990's. It was well thought out and had already been around for a very long time for military use. It had to work right. They built a super-duper worldwide interstate roadway system that changed the world. Now we have over a thousand interstates coming out and many have no real destination, direction or even a plan. If you go down one of those, you are GUARANTEED to run out of gas and you will have no money left to buy anymore. So as long as you are prepared and can afford to lose 100% or more of your investment, you are fine and good to go. But picking the winners is still the single biggest hurdle and only 10% of the extensions are now out. Multiply all the nonsense we have seen by 10 fold and you will see this will not be an easy road. A road that can only get harder to navigate and there are consequences most would just like to ignore and not talk about. Sorry, as investors we DO get to talk about it and your job is to address those concerns if you can.  And if you can't, just get out-of-the-way.


All that said, I will be looking and searching for successes and when I find one, I may place a bet or two. Time tells all and the shakeout we will see is absolutely, 1000% forseeable.  Maybe waiting until the dust settles is not the worst strategy as you will avoid being sucked in by the noise and hype. That way you get to sit back and enjoy the show. I DO NOT see gtld's as a threat. I have seen them as an opportunity from the get go. Brings a lot of eye balls our way. But on the way to opportunity, there is going to be a lots of events. Hype, noise, crashes, clusterf*cks and a lot of dead horses and it will eventually be known as SURVIVOR! Popcorn anyone?


And there is a flaw in this Rick Schwartz equation in this case. There seems to be no end to the pitfalls, obstacles and the dividing lines that are coming. Lots of folks entering the crossfire. Welcome to my world fellas.......better have a thick skin.



Rick Schwartz

Here are the Reasons the .Club guys Impressed Me and why .Web is the Main gTLD

Morning Folks!!

I will judge each gTLD on their own merits. And while there is a lot of stupid things being said, we have to know that there is more than one dance happening and for more than one audience. Domainers, Investors and the end-user. (Just kidding about the end-user) :-)

So in the case of .Club here are my thoughts:

1. They know this has nothing to do with .com or any other extension.

2. They are not saying silly and stupid things.

3. They understand the challenge they have in front of them even if their numbers may be a tad optimistic.

4. They see their place and role in the FABRIC of the Internet and domains without trying to weaken the other material. (When some others have to lower themselves and resort to "Dot com is dead" they are trying to weaken the very ship in which they sail on and look so silly and pathetic when they do so) Just tell me your benefits and that is what the .club guys do and they may not become big investment quality domains but I am certain they will establish themselves in the fabric and have a viable business.

5. I can think of many words and names to put left of the dot that actually make sense.

Compare that to .Horse. One is much more limited than the other. That is why 75% of ALL the gTLD's are not going to survive. There are simply not enough strings to make it viable after assuming the end-user is going to jump on that .Horse. Equal extensions?? I don't think so.  .Horse does not get out of the gate for me. Are we not supposed to compare and weigh each of  these against each other NOT .com?? That is their CRAP and it is CRAP. They have to compete against the other gTLD's and that is where they really crap out.

Now I am not blowing smoke. I told this directly to Jeff from .Club back in October and I did that several times.  Want to know why?? We both asked "Where are the other guys?" .Club guys know it won't be easy. It really is a challenge. They are PREPARED for that challenge and many others are not. They can make a coherent case for why some folks would use a .club. It may or may not happen. But they know what their job is and they take it seriously. They even hired Berkens and Cahn so they understand the trail ahead is going to be a battle and are going in with their eyes wide open and I give them props for that!!

On the other hand the trash talk hurts everyone except those with a big bag of smoke. I am really shocked that the tone has taken on this direction before the business even starts. I talk one on one to fellow domainers and they too are stunned and can't get over how dumb they are starting to look. Check out these thoughts and maybe you will see what I mean. Talks about domainers being "Resistant to change" and other condescending and arrogant  comments aimed at professional domainers. Just DUMB!

I am all for expansion. Not a threat. Won't hurt anyone reading this. I love it. But I think there is a lot of self-doubt these days. Why? Maybe you and I asked questions they never even thought of. And maybe they have no answers for valid questions so they need smoke and other schemes to pull off what may be impossible for most to pull off. It's that simple. Emotion is driving them and reality is squarely in their way and the closer they get to that reality the more they lash out. The timing and delays has only made things worse.

A domain is only a domain until there is a destination and a business there. Winners and losers will be defined by those that do that not the other way around. Pick any extension you like and want. Knock your socks off. All I know is any company that has had any degree of success off of a non .com eventually seeks the .com because they need it to continue to grow their companies.

And each company will do what they need to grow their own company. So if the domain and extension is good for his/her company, he will embrace. If not, he won't. Most customers might say "We already have our domain name" and that is the start and the end of the conversation that no gtld operator will be involved in or privy to. They won't be there making their case. Most will dismiss out of hand and be done with it never to give it another thought in their lifetime. That's reality.

And 1000 others will compete against all existing extensions and they will have whatever importance the public gives them. Period.

And by the way, the minute they bring up search or Google as a basis and a reason, that is even weaker than .mobi's reason. Google is like an answer to everything. Bull! Buy the damn traffic!! Everyone is so geared to fake out the system to get free traffic they forgot the real way is to buy it and pay for it and make money with it and then buy more.

Is it nice to get a Google listing? Yep! Well I am telling you it is RELEVANCE on a subject that will get you there. The domain is not for Google. The domain is for the consumer. The domain is for ease of advertising. The domain is for easy word of mouth. Some folks have it so entangled they can't see straight any more.

It's so transparent. Like sitting out in front of Google yelling pick me!! pick me!!! Stop faking out search and build a site that has something of value to offer or a product to sell and ADVERTISE! Use any vehicle you want. The domain either tells a story or is a brand or is identifiable or is unique or is special in some other regard that lets you stand out. If a gTLD helps them do that, they will embrace, if not......

So fellas, not all extensions are equal. Some are more equal than others. The .club guy made his case and it held water. Now that is good for them. They will register more than enough domains to be profitable and viable as a registry.  It still has the hurdle of being investment quality and that happens in time as demand grows or not. Perception. Value. The X factor. All types of variables. They don't tell me that their baby is going to be 7FT tall and break all basketball records and led the NBA in scoring for 6 straight years. I mean what these others are doing is even sillier than that.

To me there is no gTLD's. There are 1000 extensions that have no relation and we all know that .web is the only extension that is really being taken seriously by domainers  as a whole for those that even think there is something over here. Why? Because it is generic, it makes sense and it could be very widespread. If this was a horse race, .web would win before most others are out of the gate. The margins of imaginary pre-registrations tell the predictable story. Just verify's what we know. .Web is the one to watch. It will either prop up .net or sweep .net into 3rd place in that 10-20 year horizon some are speaking of.

If .web were out there would be much more interest. There is little oxygen right now for all these folks. Little interest. Little quality. I will buy .web when it arrives. Maybe. Depending. But I see mass viability and acceptance. It is a NATURAL FIT and not forced. Does not mean you make money right away. Could be a sub cousin to .net or .org or could be a monster. That is the #1 threat for the new gTLD's. .Web. .Period.

I look at all the extensions and I want to hear their case. I just am sick of swallowing their bullshit. Tell me the benefits ONLY. If you have to resort to attack and BS you lose. Game over. Tell me how many strings you have with an extension. Tell me all the stuff you forgot to ask and don't even know but can preach the oceans of .Com parting for some .whatever!

Yesterday we debated .link. The debate is still going. Point, counterpoint. Let's pick the subject apart and then each will decide. I said I thought it was the strongest gTLD I know about of his.  There were a wide range of views. I like hearing all the arguments and those scared to argue have to spew.

I want to thank Frank for having that lively debate yesterday over here. We are all looking for answers. We all want to make money. But the first rule of making money, is not losing money and that is for each to explain. Why their investments are safe and why they will grow. That burden is not on any domainer. It is on each registry to make a coherent case. We will accept or reject based on what we see and business basics.  Let's see what is listed on DNJournal in 2014 and 2015. We know from history that at the 1 and 2 year anniversay and renewal cycles there are massive amounts of domains that can be had for $20 and $30.  Wheel barrel filled with keywords with no value and no demand.

Did anyone pick up my .mobi drops? My .co drops? Does anyone care?

Rick Schwartz

You Forgot to Ask Them!! Who is Them?

Morning Folks!!

So to find success I often study failure. And when we come to failures on the web, there are more than enough to choose from. And learn from.

“We built the website first and asked our customers about it later” Robin Chase, Co-Founder of Zipcar. Just one of 13 failures written about here and why they failed. You can find stories like that all day long.

I see a win-lose situation and to me that is the recipe for failure before we even get to all those other things.

ICANN, Need, Want Desire......CHECK!

Registries, Need, Want Desire......CHECK!

Registrars, Need, Want Desire......CHECK!

Lawyers, Need, Want Desire......CHECK!

Google, Need, Want Desire......CHECK!

Domainers, Need, Want Desire......CHECK for as many as 25%. Debatable for others. Kiss of death for the unfortunate. None for what seems the majority.

Now the bandwagon stops there. The rest is a crap shoot for a very big reason. There is another side of the equation. Actually hundreds of different variables on the other side of the equation. But here are the big two.

End user, Need, Want Desire......Nobody asked them

Consumer, Need, Want Desire......Nobody asked them

If that is not the cardinal mistake in business, I am not sure what is.

Did they ask any of you before the fact? Can you honestly say these are the very best extensions that they could bring to market? How many extensions would an investor focus on if they wanted to find a degree of success? Are the best extensions available now? What happens if you tie your dollars up with the dogs and a winner comes to market and there are no funds left? Just the most basic of questions. Drill down and see what you find. You drill down by asking the right questions.  Then weighing the quality of the answer.

I have said for many years that failure happens at the beginning of the journey, not the end. The end is just when you realize it and of course it is too late then. “We built the website first and asked our customers about it later”. He figured it out after the failure. Success is finding the answer before you sail. But you must ask the right questions of the right people and you have to accept their answer even when it goes against your beliefs and theory.

Everyone has staked out their positions now. Since the only ones that can buy from the list above are Domainers, you are the focus. ICANN does not buy so they are not the focus. Registries don't buy so they are not the focus. Registrars don't buy so they are not the focus. Lawyers don't buy so they are not the focus. Consumers and End Users can't buy at this time and know nothing of this. So who is left????

Trademark holders and domainers. Your wallets are important. PERIOD! Not whether they get bigger or smaller in a few years. Just your wallets. They have to sell you something to survive. Who else can they sell to in mass?? Here is the aftermath for those readers with short memories. You can all make excuses but there it is.

In a horse race you MUST bet before the race. In this race, you can place your bets for years to come. Reasons like this are the reasons that tell me that waiting to see how this race shakes out is the proper course for me. If not, you and me both risk having a portfolio of worthless .aeros, .mobi's and .crap to add to this list. See that is the one sure bet. There will be less meaningful extensions than .aero and .mobi. Hundreds of them! Hundreds that will never be as important as .Aero. Feeling lucky?

And remember....value and circumstance have yet to weigh in. This is what I would call a "Heavy lift". Plus, how many digits are acceptable on an extension? I think once you are over 5, you are over the cliff. For me, that would probably disqualify those with  more than 3 or 4. But I will always watch one thing first. I will watch the consumer. I will watch the end-user. I will watch and I will follow their lead. I will ignore what domainers do. I will ignore all the other groups and what they want. I will only focus on the consumer and the end-user. They are the the "they" that hold all the cards and all the answers. The rest is all noise.

I always try and follow the money. Except when I see it going down the drain.

bigstock-Money-down-the-drain-8606818

Rick Schwartz

A Good Business Can Work Hard and Smart to Become Great with ANY Domain Name but a Great Domain Name can Transform a Good Business to GREAT…Instantly

Morning Folks!!


A Good Business Can Work Hard
and Smart to Become Great with ANY Domain Name but a Great Domain Name can
Transform a Good Business to GREAT…Instantly


By Danny Welsh


The highest and best use of a Category.com domain name is either a
hungry growth-oriented company that is qualified and passionate with big ideas
and big ambitions to grow into a category leader (think: Melville Candy now owning Candy.com) OR an established
company looking to increase their dominance online leveraging existing
products, services, and relationships in the “category” of that business just
doing more sales online (think: Bank of
America now operating Loans.com
)…


And either of those companies already had a “domain name” matching
their company they could have done just fine with…so why does Bank of America
with its established brand want Loans.com so bad they pay big $$$ for it? Why
does a company in business for decades suddenly want to change its branding to
Candy.com as the very FIRST move in wanting to increase market share?


It’s easy to realize once you realize, but until you do…people wonder,
is it really THAT valuable to operate a business using Category.com?


Yes…it IS.


But Category.com the branding
tool isn’t for the most part in most industry categories being used for that
young, hungry company that wants to be in the Inc 500
. And Category.com the asset isn’t for the most part in most
industry categories being leveraged by that established company that is already
part of the Fortune 500.


How do I know this? Because all you need to do is type in a dozen
examples off the top of your head for www.PRODUCT.com or www.SERVICE.com and
you’ll find a few websites that obviously belong to a REAL business selling
REAL products to REAL people, and a few that obviously…don’t.


If you look over the available domain names on JointVentures.com you’ll
see ASSETS with only a fraction of the fantastic opportunity packaged within
them for making SALES being exploited…one nickel at a time earning income through
a monetization strategy called “domain parking”.


And all the rest of the benefits that causes a Bank of America earn
millions with a Loans.com or Melville Candy company earn millions with a
Candy.com is so far being SQUANDERED in the case of the shrinking number of
listings available each month from the month previously on JointVentures.com,
as each of those assets is in the hands of someone who does NOT have a
“Category” business.


The questions people ask is WHY aren’t the owners DOING anything constructive
with that crappy website filled with nothing but pay-per-click links on
DOMAINIWANTTOBUY.com?


There are many reasons. But it all comes back to supply and demand,
need and want, opportunity and probability. And an incredible story of risk and
ridicule on the part of 500 or so entrepreneurial people 20 years ago…that in
the coming decades I believe will provide Harvard Case studies for a century or
more in MBA classes.


If you’re reading this blog,
increasingly you found it because you want to buy one of those scarce generic
.com domain names
, only now you’re realizing maybe you waited too long
and you simply can’t afford to make the investment to acquire the ONE domain
name you want MOST for your business without forking over more money than you’re
yet sure that branding tool or asset is worth…


And
you’re hesitating…wondering if the .com you want that is available for
$8000/quarter
to LEASE is truly THAT much better than
the .net available for $8.99 to BUY.


You’re afraid to make a mistake, either way. Am I right?


I can’t blame you. You see, I was there not long ago when I stumbled
onto this very blog in 2010 with my eye on one of those domain names to use in
my own business.


Of course, if the PRICE is justified we business owners will invest the
money to acquire an asset that makes us more money…but IS IT really justified?
Is it really possible that something could sell for $100 twenty years ago and
the guy who owns it in 2013 and wants $10,000,000 this year OR $10,000 per
month is not simply full of shit?


Welcome to my world, my new friend. The world of eRealEstate, where a
www.Clothes.com is an asset that trades hands for millions of dollars between a
small company that gets bought by a larger company even when it hasn’t even yet
been USED properly, while a www.Clothes.crap ain’t worth…well…crap.


Come in a little closer
because we don’t want your competitors to hear this explosive information that
you’re going to be reading about in Inc, Fortune, Forbes and Entrepreneur
Magazine VERY SOON.


The CEO at your competitor’s company is too busy chasing sales when
you’ve just stumbled onto what may very well be the most powerful way to
ATTRACT SALES that the 20th century wasn’t yet ready to realize,
that even 5 years ago most companies on Main Street America still had no clue
about…


But that a small group of 500
very smart men and women called “domain investors” realized 20 years ago and
‘bet the farm’ for 20 years that one day you’d be right here, right now,
reading this and saying “What do you
mean, what I want to buy and am offering cash money for is NOT for sale?”
.


So slow down, settle in, and get educated by your future business
partners (that’s us).


Your small and already successful business can become INSTANTLY more
successful if you make the RIGHT.com choice, and/or your start-up idea you’re
passionate about bootstrapping into a commercial success can be INSTANTLY
railroaded into a mistake that will cost you for years if you make the
www.wrong.choice


Are you following me?


Allow me a small history lesson, news
you will probably be SHOCKED to learn but that not a single investigative
reporter on the planet can refute
.


Just about 500 men and women who had a VISION for the
FUTURE
in 1994 that many people thought were CRAZY now own most of the PREMIUM land
under which the “developments” on the Internet are built…


And they own most of this .com “internet real estate”
OUTRIGHT.


One of them is named Rick Schwartz, a man many people are bitter
towards, calling him a “greedy cyber squatter” or a “lucky bastard” or simply
and eloquently quite often a “Fucking Jew Asshole” .


Please forgive my language here, but it’s true. We could show you
HUNDREDS if not THOUSANDS of emails that have come to Rick Schwartz alone
UNSOLICITED offering to BUY his internet real estate and when for 18 years he’s
told people it’s not for sale…they scream bloody murder and call him every name
in the book. Does screaming “So and so is a bad person” make that person a bad
person? Of course not!


(Multiply that by 500 and you’re getting an idea of the world these
people live in daily, people who own the very BEST of .com domain names like
those available exclusively through JointVentures.com… and maybe you’ll get an
idea why they don’t many times even have enough TIME IN THE DAY to respond to
all of the “I’ll offer you $xxxx for Product.com” emails some well-meaning
folks like you and me—and some nuts too—send them when you were ATTRACTED to
their retail location on the internet hoping to use the same location to
ATTRACT your future customers.


Rick Schwartz…


“greedy cyber squatter”?


“lucky
bastard”?


“Fucking
Jew Asshole”?


I don’t think so. This is the same very giving man who has
successively become my eRealEstate landlord from whom I lease a domain name I
would have preferred to buy, who has become a mentor, and now a partner to me
with JointVentures.com.


If you’ll allow me to, I’ll show you how Rick Schwartz the “domainer”
can be generous AND selfish at the same time, but at no time is he simply lucky
or has he done anything wrong.


Rick
Schwartz and the other 500 VISIONARIES like him have been looking for YEARS for
the way to FAIRLY make the most of their so-called “luck” to invest every dollar they could get their hands on one $100 bet after another to register .com generic domain names HOPING, THINKING,
PREDICTING, and finally KNOWING that years later you’d be right here, right now wanting to BUY for $xxx,xxx what’s
simply not for sale…


They’ve been looking for YEARS for ways to offer the market the
profitable use of an asset that they were called crazy to risk 1/1000 of that
amount to buy that you’re trying to give them today only to be told your offer
is simply too low.


And they are NOT the “bad guys”,
really they are not.


How can this be, when they have what you want and won’t let you have
it?


It’s because they were the underdogs 20 years ago that beat the
Goliaths to the punch, who saw what the internet would look like and predicted
how human nature would cause things to evolve…


Before there was a Google
even to search the internet these 500 visionaries were investing in “.com”.


Before everybody was
Twittering all over your Facebook
, these smart people made a BET that
has turned into an investment in that which has become the most widely used
IDEA in the history of mankind in little more than 20 years.


Before there was a
Godaddy.com running commercials
showing you how “easy” it is to get
your “cheap” domain name to use for a website and email in minutes, they
labored through a painful and time-consuming process to register domain names
$100 at a time and paid for them by MAIL.


They BOUGHT ALL OF THE LAND
WORTH OWNING UNDER THE INTERNET
…and they did it one investment at a time to
build a portfolio of .com “domain names” 20 years before you even knew you’d want
a website for your business, or that when you DID want one…that if you wanted
the very best location for your online store it would need to be built on that
LAND they owned— or alternative land that was inferior in so many ways.


Now here we are today in 2013.


I have convinced 100 of the most successful visionary domain name
owners in the world to give ME an opportunity to give YOU an opportunity.


To allow me to marry a great domain name with a good business that
wants to become GREAT…or a GREAT business that wants to keep any good business
in their niche category from using this tool to knock them off in the future as
that competitor who’s small now becomes GREAT.


Cue the music for the story about FTD and 1-800-Flowers anyone?


It’s the same horse race that happened with vanity phone numbers, only
bigger stakes.


Here’s what I told
them: “Mr. Domain Owner: You can offer deserving small companies an affordable
chance to build a great business and brand on the great generic premium .com
domain name and take a nice cut, or big companies an affordable opportunity to
lease the domain name they’d have bought if it were sale at a price you’d
accept while it continues to go up in value every year even though you do
nothing. And both sides can be protected
in case of success OR failure with all terms fully spelled out going into the
deal.”


They said YES.


And as we roll through 2013, a record number of companies doing
creative deals to get the ONE domain name that can change their business for
the better forever are saying YES too.


ATTRACTION is a powerful thing, is it not?


Danny Welsh
JointVentures.com



The Votes are in and the Winners Are….

Morning Folks!!


Last year we had a record amount of votes. This year we blew that record away by lunch time!! Hundreds of you voted in the most widespread voting ever in the Industry. It was a real horse race and a big CONGRATS to all nominees.


Most of the races were very tight. The votes are in and the winners are to be announced on October 9th in Fort Lauderdale at T.R.A.F.F.I.C.


Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz


20-Year Post Part 2; gTLD’s

Morning Folks!! 12/21

Tomorrow is my last post to celebrate my 20 years and then I am back off to being retired, silent and enjoying life. Hope to see you for the 25th in 2020.

If you have read my writings over the years you will know that I like to look at both sides of an issue. I can play devil's advocate. I enjoy balancing information and coming to a conclusion. Many close their eyes to new information. They get threatened by it. They have to lash out. Never understood why. Let the weight of what is discovered be the map forward not a meandering way to a dead end. I always adjust accordingly.

I may not be to the leading edge of technology but I have tried to keep up with it throughout my life because I always devised ways to work less and make more. I still have my original 12.5LB Radio Shack Cell Phone from 1981 and my collections of phones is over 100 including 12 iPhones. Cell service was expensive back then, but I devised ways to make it pay for itself and then some. Each new gadget I would buy may have been a bit speculative and some would say wasteful, but I always figured out a way to make whatever it was pay for itself. That way I could justify my purchases and continue to nourish my appetite for cutting edge whatever.

I have watched the evolution of the cell phone from a "Wasteful luxury" to one of the most important necessities in life. I have watched necessities of life reduced to complete insignificance. They still have a place, but their importance has been greatly diminished. Knowing the difference is key. Recognizing which items are candidates for that and which are not. Which have staying power and which will evaporate.

I have been is sales for 50 years. I understand the art and science of sales. I have seen sales through the eyes of 55 different industries. But what you sell is always what determines your level of success. That is where Need, Want and Desire are filters I use to qualify or disqualify any item that I might see. It was how I found success when traveling to Hong Kong and Taiwan and hundreds of trade shows.

What I knew in the years 1995 and 1996 was everything I had done in my life, everything I learned, every success or failure I had, was to prepare me for this domain name journey.

When it comes to the gTLD's, I just don't see the same thing. The demand is being driven by the sellers and domainers and end users are more focused on their .Brand as they should be. THAT is smart and that will keep them in the game no matter what happens. But domainers can't play in that pond. So for me, the top of the pyramid is not even in play.

The USA is .com centric. I don't see that changing to any degree. They will go to any url if it is in their self interest. Content will be what it is all about. Trust may become a big issue.

The reality is that 2 years into this experiment I have yet to see a single commercial on TV in the USA using anything other than .com with only a few exceptions for .org, .net and .tv. I have seen 3 and 4 words .com advertised. I have seen a number of things ending in tv.com advertised. I have seen domains with "dashes" in them .com advertised. I have seen one commercial with a .tv and I would expect more at this point. Sorry, that is directly related to the new gtld's. .TV vs .Horse. You decide which one is going to be used to advertise first and most. Lots of folks still waiting for .tv to take off. But no extension will have great value like .com until you see them used in real and long term advertising campaigns by folks that advertise all day long.

What do I see coming? My last post called the "Rick Schwartz Equation" is still fully intact. Still too early to see any clear winners. But there are several hundred losers and their carcuses are there for all to see. They are much easier to spot. The story really won't unfold until a truly strong new gtld comes along. In my mind .web still has the single best chance to shake things up. I think when .web is released you will see more registrations in their first week than whoever holds the number one spot the week before. That's what I see. And even that won't guarantee a success. But if .web were already out, it is my opinion half of the gTLDs would be on life support if they are not already. .web could become the next .com or the next .net. Either position is stronger than all others imo.

And speaking of the poor orphan .net. The stepbrother to .com. There are more .nets registered than all gTLD's combined. .nets that have a 1% value of their brother .com and 1/1000 the demand. We all have some .nets. So what? I get more inquiries on my .orgs. .Nets have been a piss poor investment. Thankfully they were all hand registered. You should see the arguments I had with folks about .com vs .net back in the day because techies looked down on .com. Does not mean there are not some .nets sold. So what? Who cares? But I would be scooping up .nets and .orgs today before .horse and most of the others. When they go into the boardroom, all the old extensions will be reviewed and .net, .org, .tv, .me, .info, .biz and others will be discussed and carry weight. It means that one may eventually break out as an alternative. Just not sure what happens to all the others. And when push comes to shove, .brand may be the way to go.

Despite what some say, I have welcomed new gtld's in the sense that it brings thousands of domain evangelists out into the public square spreading the word about domain names. There was a time there was only ONE doing that. Now there are thousands. That helps me and you. But that is a different discussion than taking hard earned money and reinvesting in a riskier side of things. Sorry, just not a path that interests me. Some believe that hurts .com and other extensions. Sorry, I don't believe that one either. Awareness is the key and that's what they bring. Whether the gtld flotilla will each fly on their own? Two words come to mind. Massive consolidation.

That said, the number of registrations will not determine value. The consumer and end user will decide their fate and therefore value not domainers selling to each other. Domainers are financially and emotionally invested. That is fine. But when you have that much emotion in something, you might not be open to the information you need. I am sure great collections are being put together. But the question is will those collections increase in value or become irrelevant in time? For every 1 gtld success there may be a minimum of 35- 40 failures the way I calculate. Possibly much more. Sorry, same or worse odds as Roulette. Gambling vs investing. Yes there will be winners and you will hear about them. But the losers will be a much larger group and they will multiply faster and they will be silent.

Then I always hear they are for "Start-ups." Well if I was looking at a startup and arguably the name you choose and your website are among the most important decisions you will make early on, and you chose a non .com at this moment in history, I would question your judgment. I would say you gave up looking too soon. I would say that for less than $1000 you can find a suitable and very good .com name. The headwinds in the way of lost sales will be more than you can afford. So if you can't afford a grand for a .com, you certainly can't afford a new gTLD. So cheap, misguided and lazy is the picture I see; Sorry. 

I think the keyword for the future is despite massive expansion is also massive consolidation. Folks that ignore the math will eventually be consumed by the math. But numbers don't have emotion or feelings. They are one of the few absolutes we have. That does not make me likable or charming. It makes me focused on facts and value. And if that pisses off those with skin in the game, they need thicker skin. The main fact of my focus is value, and you always must factor in circumstance and life expectancy. So if something is going to have great value in 85 years that's great! But you will be dead and so will your kids!  So it's more important to eat, pay the mortgage now and enjoy each day.

Clearly 3 out of 4 new gtld's are underwater by number of registrations. Of course the number of registrations may have little to do with the actual commercial success of a gtld. It just happens to be one of the only pieces of data we can judge by early on. Number of registrations may not matter to an end user. Then again, it may! I will judge by the total amount of money spent to advertise and promote any single gtld. That includes all Radio, TV, Magazine, Billboards etc.

Let me tell you how I define success...When I see 3 or more different corporations using the same extension to heavily and consistently advertise on TV and billboards etc. and promote their products and the campaigns last more than 90 days. That to me would be how I define a success. .Net is not what I would define as a success. But it has many millions of registrations. More than all the gtlds added together.

A registrar success is not a domain investor success and that has always been my main point. But through the lens of the registry game there are only a few clear winners out of the 400 extensions released so far IMO. And again many of the stronger extensions have yet to hit the market.

Here is a perfect example from just a few weeks ago and it is quite stunning. This headline from thedomains.com says it all when it comes to efficiency:

".XYZ Has More Domain Registrations Than Donuts 183 gTLD’s Combined"


Simply put one company has done better than another at this stage. Numbers don't lie even if they are skewed by people. You just have to factor that in. You can't discount it 100%.  10 extensions control 51% of all gtld registrations. The other 400 share the other half. The top 50 account for 75% leaving the other 350 sharing 25%. That is before we even have the other 1000 extensions.

As I write this the top 10 gTLD's have about 5.5 Million registrations.

That is more than 5.2 Million the next 400 gTLD's COMBINED!!!


Remember when .Kiwi was going to have millions of registrations? Well nearly 2-YEARS later, they just broke the 10,000 mark ranking them at #140. That means nearly 300 extensions have yet to even reach 10,000 registrations. By the time you get to the 5000 registration level you are at #220. Meaning over 200 have not even gotten to 5000 registrations. Sorry, these numbers are pitiful. MANY will die on the vine regardless of what is being said. They will most probably be propped up by consolidation for the purpose of saving face by others in the space. But don't kid yourself, they are bleeding dollars on a daily basis. Numbers don't lie.


No one is in business to lose money and the numbers paint a picture that are VERY clear to me regardless of the spin.

When you factor in the fact that most registrations are domainers, then you can easily see the collapse coming.

They may be lucky to see consolidation. There is little room for the end user. The oxygen in the room has been consumed by domainers. Sorry, it was much different with .com so why would folks expect the same result. So many factors that are different.


See everyone is looking for the second coming but there is a HUGE difference.

With .com 98% were registered by businesses with the intent of having an online presence.

Practically every business in the Fortune 10,000 had a .com

Practically every business had and still has a .com

And for the vast majority of business, one domain is all they will ever need.


And my single biggest point during all these years is the collective advertising dollars spent promoting .com. From almost every TV commercial, to almost every advertisement, to almost every piece of literature printed, to almost every promotion piece, etc. etc. etc. If you were to add up all dollars spent, it would wipe out the $19 trillion national debt. In the history of mankind no other anything has ever been promoted that heavily by so many for so long with no end in site. I made this up of course because no one measures such a thing. I have to fill in the blanks beforehand. I don't have the luxury as a businessman of using 20/20 hindsight. I have to come to strong conclusions and stick with them. Folks are free to argue a point like this, but I won't budge an inch and one day it will be proven. It's a fact in my mind and I know it is accurate.


With gTLD's it is the reverse. 98% or more are registered by speculators. You really can't see the picture of what is coming and why it is so different? What is the total global spend on advertising new gTLD's? What is the total spend of 400+ registries promoting them? It would not put a ripple in a pond. THAT my friends is what many are missing. That is the key.


I can sit here and pick apart these numbers like a vulture on a carcass all day long.

I can come at it from a multitude of different angles and directions.

I can make grown men cry.

My posts on gTLD's were written early on, many of them and are time stamped.


How long will it be before hundreds of these extensions die on the vine? Numbers don't lie. These folks have ongoing expenses and many have peaked in their registrations. Sorry, but 5 registrations a day won't pay a single salary and dozens and dozens are doing 0-5 registrations a day. Will the other profitable operators pick them up just to help save themselves? That clusters*ck I have been talking about is starting to take shape. Can't see it? Have too much invested to want to see it?


Brands and Geo's have the best shot at success in my view and I have been on record with that for years. But .Brands are not a domain investor play. Plus many .brands will be internal and no one will be giving up their .com in lieu of their .brand.


Even Geo's with all the fanfare of the likes of .Vegas,  are stuck under 15,000 registrations.and declining after peaking at 17,000. That may be enough to keep them in business. It is not enough to make them important. The only thing that can make it important is heavy and consistent advertising by many. The entire advertising spend. That is the oxygen that can breathe life into an extension. The other is fantastic content available nowhere else. So until that happens, this is much ado about nothing and the entire domain industry is being consumed by tumbleweeds.


Once you factor in domainers that are not buying billboards and not buying TV time, how many registrations are from  businesses that are? And .vegas is a strong geo extension. I do believe we will see advertising by end users in time.


.Horse? Not so much. 4500 registrations in over 2 years and nearly 50% were registered in 1 day indicating a domainer.

Take away that day. .Horse averages about 3-4 registrations a day at best. And now I will make some cry. .Horse has nearly 200 gtld's that are doing even worse!


Kleenex anyone?

Give me a break! Success? Really??

Who is kidding who? Don't be too gullible. Don't let greed get in the way of common sense,


When you strip out the domain investor registrations, you have a pile of NOTHING! If you don't know about TULIP crash you are in the wrong business. "Human beings have always been prone to want things that are difficult to get, especially if everyone else seems to be doing it. Nutty behavior becomes commonplace when enough people are following along. It’s only afterwards that we stand back and shake our heads and wonder what came over us."


They will trample each other just getting to 5000 registrations. Pitiful. It takes TIME to shake out success. But failure is like a big full moon. Hard to miss unless you are invested. And now you see why the keyword is consolidation and the other is collapse. I would hate to be the fool that built a successful business on a bad extension and have it go dark one day. They may be putting some of these on the endangered species list pretty soon.


And while ICANN has so-called plans for this, it is not perpetual. Extensions will go dark unless they are propped up by those that are heavily invested. Numbers don't have emotion. They have no motivation. They are perfect and absolute. They are universal. They paint a VIVID picture that says more than the loudest voice or the best salesperson. Numbers don't lie. People lie.

When .web comes out, it may suck ALL the oxygen out of the room to the point where we might see mass casualties and huge consolidation. That could be the end of the party for many. I have a multitude of extensions and still waiting for the second coming.

Let me be clear on what I see in gtld land. If you want to point to .xyz as a success, then so be it. If you think .horse is the future. So be it. Everyone is free to believe what they want and invest as they choose. All I can do is share my vantage point and give it some basis. You can choose to ignore or embrace or even employ. No one is pointing a gun to your head. Take it or leave it. If my view threatens your view, that is your problem not mine because I don't care either way.

The current aftermarket, if there is one, is domainer to domainer and speculator to speculator by a huge margin when compared to end users. The demand by the end user is VERY SOFT! With 11 million gTLD's registered that is a minimum of $100-200 Million on the primary market possibly much more with the various premium and pricing schemes. The ratio between the primary market and the aftermarket is growing not shrinking. The aftermarket has yet to develop. Will it? I don't know. There is certainly strong evidence that it is very weak. Until that gap closes, IF that gap closes, is an important tipping point to watch and track. This is just another way to track what direction things are moving. Especially since now we are entering the third year of this.

What I see is based on the countless emails I get to sell me .whatever that would have no value if it were .com. What they are really trying to do is look for a bigger sucker than they are. Unfortunately most are suckers for one main reason. They still don't understand what makes one domain valuable and another domain worthless. Imagine jewelers that could not differentiate between diamonds and glass. Between tin and gold. You would laugh. Well when I get spammed everyday with the crap I see, oh my!!! Truly swampland and quicksand have much more value.

If you want to even be in the game of a gLLD success, I would focus on strong one word domains that are a known phrases and have commercial meaning. I have never posed a list of anyone's domain name that they have tried to sell me. If I did, it would make any professional domainer pee in their pants from laughing so hard. Remember, one domain that means something has more value than 1000 domains that don't.

The one thing I have stressed for years is to know the difference between an asset and a liability.  If you don't understand the difference, go learn it, understand it, then apply it. Your nice car may be an asset or it may be a liability. Depends on you. If it is paid off, it is an asset. If it is worth $20,000 and you owe $30,000, it is a liability.

My main point is please don't compare this to the domain rush of 20 years ago. The factors are so much different. The times are different. The world is different. Supply vs demand and Need, want, desire. Sorry, no one can hide from theses truths. Most importantly, the consumer has to embrace them and still holds the ultimate trump card. They will have the final say so. They may be more apt to adapt in areas where cctld's are used than the USA market which is dominated by .com. So region may play a role in this.

Overstock.co is still to this day the only canary in the mine we have seen using a non .com extension in a heavy advertising blitz. They failed miserably. But that was years ago and I am anxious to see the next big splurge by a non .com and see the results. Maybe the Super Bowl  will provide us that chance.  So if you want to look at a barometer each year and keep score, THAT my friends is the place to do it. The Super Bowl and Times Square Billboards. These are "Ground Zero" for forward thinking advertising. So until those venues are populated with gTLD's on their signs, and they are there long term, we still have a long way to go.

Let me end with this. I have never seen so many negative variables in any business in my life. Does not mean there won't be a HANDFUL of successes. Does not mean they won't be trumpeted loud and by as many as possible. But I would focus on eliminating the hundreds and hundreds of losers, that many want to just ignore, from the few with success. At least ask the question which ones can survive the long term? Ask what happens when a true and dominant extension like .web comes along? Will you have the funds to invest if ones does come along and catch on fire and is embraced?

I wish everyone great success in whatever path you choose. The surprises along the way will be many if you only see blue skies. The key is not being surprised but being prepared as to what will unfold; when and if it will unfold; and also get it right.

Tomorrow is the actual anniversary post I started with and then as I added these elements, realized it would be too long for just a single blog entry.

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

 

A Fool and His Numbers

Morning Folks!!

The chart below was written about by DomainIncite. These are for September registrations of current gTLD's. So let's compare. But just at first glance .com at 475,000 had 3x as many registrations as all the 17 others combined. Damn numbers!

.Com 475,000 for September were more than the combined TOTAL registrations for  .Post, .Museum, .coop, .aero, .travel, .jobs, .cat, .xxx, .Pro,  and about 20% of .Tel. When we only had 18 horses in the race.

Now as far as just registrations and numbers and no noise.  .Biz is emerging as the alternative. They were second only to .com. No wonder you hear so much trash talk about .biz lately. Another THREAT to gTLD rollouts. A bigger threat than .com to THEM.

.mobi beat out .org for the number four slot. With .Mobile coming out, could give new life to .mobi. But still not anywhere for a domain investor to piss away their dollars on. Why bet on a losing horse?? And it seems I can list a lot of losers. A lot of losers that are better than what is coming.

Numbers don't have emotions. They contain facts and they contain secrets. visible secrets for anyone with the courage and guts to look.

.Museum, .Tel, .asia, and .info actually lost registrations. But the tidbit here is those discounting .info should not. with over 6 million active registrations, they are number 4. And if you care to drill down just a bit further, they are the only gTLD that came after the .com, .net and .org that has respectable numbers other than .biz.

gtldtable

So even if we get to the point that they sit in boardrooms to decide their "Domain Strategy" (must be a recurring wet dream of mine) they all still have to consider the more established ones FIRST. And then they will start the meeting with .com and they will end their meeting with .com.

What they decide to do inside those .com boundaries are likely to only support their .com efforts. One way or the other that is the END game for each one. If I want to impress you with a list of current companies that own .mobi you could give a rats ass. It's meaningless to you and me. It has no meaning to them either. But they have it. So is there a commercial value? Well if there is one for RickSchwartz.mobi, it is probably pretty low. Type in most BRAND.mobi and most are owned and inactive or point back to the .com.

And of course just because I don't talk about much country codes does not mean I don't understand or respect their place.  It is not my focus but surely that is much less risky than what is coming. Surely folks can see that. Given a casino, I would be much more interested in that table. Those are also based on numbers and the variables are population and buying power. So not all are the same and as you have seen, certain country codes are quite valuable.

I am a fool for the numbers. I read them like a detective reads a murder mystery. I read things into them. I drill down on them. I NEVER fear the answer. "Numbers don't lie. People do." I have that thought written on my personal checks. "Trust Numbers Not People". That is the way for me.

The numbers tell a story. They guide you in different directions. They assist you in every single thing there is in the universe. Most people are scared to death of the numbers.  I have seen it throughout my life with endeavor after endeavor always different people but always allergic to numbers. When they count cost they count at the lowest variable. When I count, I will add 20% because that is closer to reality and then there are no surprises.

So none of us own the numbers but each of us gets to interpret the numbers. I have many different ways to interpret numbers because I can look at the same set of numbers from all sides. Even change one variable to see what could or would happen.

So what do you think happens when you add 900 to the list above? Some will say that it splits it all up 900 different and equal slices. In their DREAMS! That of course is an impossibility. Some extensions will be more equal than other extensions.

Please don't just look at the chart. Study it! Ask yourself how long have they been around? How much competition did they have? Why are they not growing? Why are some shrinking? How important are they to you? To anyone? Some are, some are not, some you just .laugh.

This is not a roadmap? A peek inside? You can do it by quarter or by year. And see the difference between a Registry success and a domain investor success. If you are coming at all this from an emotional position, at least put on your math cap and come at it from a number standpoint. A risk vs reward standpoint.

I think the two extensions we will see up here are .web and perhaps .shop. Out of 900. Most will never get past .aero  at 8868 and we all know how meaningful that extension is to your flipping and investment careers. .Mobi at over 1 million. Is that one important to ya?

I am just searching for answers like you and I am sharing exactly how I come to the conclusions I do. Right or wrong. It isn't like I put a finger in the wind. Spent a year looking at this from every side imaginable. But numbers never lie as long as the numbers are true and factual. The way I look at it, I would rather save up for the winner than tie my dollars up. I have learned that when I buy the best, I am rewarded. I would rather overpay for quality than get a bargain on anything else. Not everyone thinks that way. In fact, most don't.

Rick Schwartz

Domain Investing vs Domain Gambling. I’ll point out the Difference.

Morning Folks!!

A fool and his money are soon and easily parted. I should know. I have been broke in my life.  Made money and pissed it away. I did not know the difference between an investment and a gamble.

Maybe I can share this lesson with my readers and how you can avoid this pitfall.

The .Kiwi folks are nice. So is the casino pitboss.

So today we all have the golden opportunity to buy hotels.kiwi for $125,000.

Ok, so let's agree that is one of the very best .kiwi domains. For an end user in New Zealand, it might be a good gamble. It may even be a good investment.

Let's say Hotels.com would be their best prospect.

Oh snap! They use the sub-domain to achieve their goal with a cost of? ZERO!

http://nz.hotels.com

Like I have said, if these companies want to look smart and have a real debate, talk about the FACTS. The facts are that these large companies have decided to build VERTICALLY not HORIZONTALLY! They are not wide, they are tall.

So if you want to see the future, look at dot-coms that can have sub domains. Problem with MANY gTLD's is they are not subdomainable from the get go and these extensions are 100% sub domaining without the .com. But when you can only use a handful of adjectives, nouns and verbs to describe your gTLD, you die on the vine. No question about it. Unless pigeon shit farmers come to your resuce.

Now the point of the post is if you have $125,000 you can buy this domain Hotels.kiwi. Is it a safe bet?

Let's see.....

Hotels.nz goes nowhere.

Hotels.mobi goes nowhere. How much is that bitch worth?

Hotels.biz goes nowhere. How much is that bitch worth?

Hotels.info goes nowhere. How much is that bitch worth?

You see where this is heading.

So will Hotels.com buy hotels.whatever x 1000? Probably not. But even if they did, the chances are they would just redirect to the dot-com. So how commercially meaningful is that??

So as a domain investor......that is an insane risk. For Hotels.com it may be the cost of doing business. Maybe not. Maybe they wait for some schmuck to buy it and WIPO them. A couple of those and this thing would deflate faster than the worst souffle!

It's a GAMBLE!

Now compare that with buying a $125,000 keyword.com. Even if you goof, even if it is not as good as you thought, don't you think the value is still probably 6 figures? So go look at dot-com domains asking about $200k and you will have your choice. Which is a safer investment?

The .Kiwi folks and the .Club folks are very legit. I never heard them say ridiculous things. Their credibility is intact. We can have a debate and a discussion. I don't see everything. I see what I see. They may add something of value.

So while those that don't care about their credibility and really don't give a rat's ass if you succeed or not as long as they succeed, will always run around and say silly things. But silly hurts them all. They come to market as one, times 1000, and they will leave the market one at a time x 990. Really sucky odds even for the biggest gamblers.

If you have millions, you can afford to gamble. If you don't can you afford a total loss? That is the ONLY question you need to ask.

I sold Casinos.mobi, Tickets.mobi, Escort.mobi for chump change. $122,000 loss.

Crusies.kiwi $83,000? I hope they find an end-user to buy it. But a domainer?? Really? I just see it as a gamble. I went to cruises.nz. It goes nowhere.

I own Cruises.mobi, want to buy it?? $83K? Do I hear $10,000? Do I hear $5000? What is the value today? This is real vs the bullshit. And .mobi registrations are rising. well over a million of them. I want $83k because why?? Based on what?

Look as .mobi is growing faster than most others. Explain that?

http://www.zfbot.com/zfbot_stats.png

And I don't mean to pick on .kiwi. But those are the numbers I have so far and when others release theirs, I will comment as well. Plus I happen to have a UNIQUE outlook by already owning my .whatever counterpart so I think I have great evidence that can hardly be just swept away and ignored.

My readers have lost millions. Let's face it. We made some, but when it came to anything other than dot-com, the majority of folks found very limited success.

And I bought into many .whatevers. Only the .me's have more value than what I paid. Every other extension and I have yet to see the dividends I once thought possible.

Who will beat .tel other than the top 5-10?

I always exempt ccTLD's because we know there is a place in the eco-system for them. I have never focused on them because I don't focus on local markets.

So I just can point to REAL examples nobody else really can or have not as yet vs the BS being spewed by the likes of some and reinforced by others with a monetary stake in things. NOISE! So be careful what you read these days. The lure of $$$ will have them sell their souls. Greed is a huge catalyst that was the foundation of all of this as I recall history and unless you are prepared to absorb a 100% loss, these are some of the poorest casinos.mobi I have seen. Most so far are incapable of having more than a few meaningful combinations. How does that translate to success?

At least with .kiwi it is much less restricted than some of the truly worthless extensions you will see. .

Kiwi has many or possibly unlimited left of the dot variables. .xyz does as well but I have yet to see the vision and then it still has to be sold and it still has to be adopted. Many others, MOST others, almost ALL others, have a handful of left of the dot variables and think they can become meaningful. They need to understand what a sub-domain is first and then become a registry. They are about to find out the hard way.

I would think the first rule may be only have 3 to 4 characters right of the dot. I think I would disqualify anything with more right from the get go at this point in time. That may be why .Web, .App, .Blog, .Shop has led the pack in pre-registrations.

Investment or Gamble? You decide. Not me. I can only decide for me and share with you. LIke I said, I have no issue with .Kiwi. They were/are a sponsor of TRAFFIC. I want them all there. All there to make their best case among a tough audience looking for real answers before they invest what could be large money. But that does not mean I can't comment and do it honestly. And I would never say anything I would not say directly to them and I am sure most folks know that by now.

I hope they all hit pay dirt. Their success is our success regardless of the stupid things some are saying and doing. But they need to get a grip and understand the real damage they are doing to themselves. Self inflicted. You can't even begin to wrap your heads around the private conversations. They are beginning to just dismiss one and all when it comes to gTLDS.

Given the choice, I would invest in IDN's first. They have gone through the years of pain that these others are ony just going to start. Most folks I know need to eat today. Pay bills and the mortgage today. They don't have unlimited funds. These extension ARE illiquid as Forbes stated. But not the dot-coms. The.mobi's maybe. The .whatevers almost certainly. Once the dust settles, you will see that weak extensions like .tel will survive and get stronger while all these other guys do their work.

The conversation in the boardroom will likely include all the other non dot-com extensions and of course the dot-com. But the chances of them choosing .whatever over the extensions already available is not a given. So .Net, .Org, .US, .INFO, .Me, .Co, .TV, .Biz will also be on the table and those are MUCH bigger and stronger horses even tho so many are laughing at them. So .whatever guys, don't laugh until you pass the worst dead nag in the race.

I am on record saying I am an opportunist. I make a living searching for opportunity. Many of you do that as well. I am not scared to jump on opportunity and when I see it I will jump.

.Com happened for a reason and this entire charade is to try to copy that. Dot-com and the Internet in general was a once in a hundred year phenomenon that the entire world shared in. And it had NOTHING TO DO WITH .COM. It had to do with who built on .com and what they built. The question is can they  attract meaningful businesses to give  them legitimacy? Not one or two but hundreds of thousands and millions? Can those companies endure with them?  Somebody willing to abandon their dot-com because they truly believe what they say?

Or is it merely another door that may or may be LOCKED as I illustrated above.

The horse shit I have been hearing is alienating the single biggest pool of buyers they have. Insulting knowledgeable and professional domainers is lunacy. And you guys all own it. You rise together, it would not surprise me that you fall together. With the exception of those that could have a fit in the Internet eco-system.

It will be many years before we know. We may be all talking about it now but when was the last time you talked about .mobi? .Tel? .Aero? .Biz? How important are any of them to your daily or investment lives? I have no evidence whatsoever of a success. I will search high and low for that success. I do think that some may be surprised by what breaks out and what does not breakout.

Yes, you can run to the window and buy your Kentucky Derby Tickets right now and figure out which of the 1000 will come in. Or , unlike GAMBLING and more like INVESTING, you can wait until they take the first turn. You can wait until the mid-point. You can wait until the stretch. 990 of them won't make it to the finish line. If you want to gamble, you do it now. If you want to invest, you wait until the race is 3/4 over and make your move. I would rather invest $5000 then gamble $500. I would rather pay more for what is proven than risk what I have no idea about.

Rick Schwartz

Rick Reviews .London, .NYC, .Club, .Tattoo, .Sexy, .Web and BS!!

Morning Folks!!

Each new gTLD I will review with the following lens and I will rate in each category.

NEED

WANT

DESIRE

VALUE (And for now, let's stipulate that value is limited until it can be measured in a more meaningful way)

I can score them on a 1-10 basis but seldom will I have to.

So let's start with .London

Let me also make the following blanket statement. Geo's and Brands may be exceptions.

Brands have nothing to do with us as investors. The only relevance is if they will use it, when they will use it and how they will use it. So let's stipulate that .brand is a separate issue. If I were working for .brand I would get the .brand gtld. Maybe never use it, but secure it nonetheless depending on the brand. Some brands can take their time. .CocaCola for example is not in jeopardy. However .apple or .delta could be. So there would be more of a sense of urgency.

.Geo tlds will be determined by how it is embraced locally and whether it is a turn off or a turn on internationally. Gucci.Rome? Maybe. Fendi.Paris. But the "." is very confusing and sometimes catalogued.

Point is, these are different from the generics. I can't say which way it may go. But it is still limited. But there is opportunity depending on the restrictions and adaptation. It may or may not be embraced. The public has the final vote. None of us do. Our job is to predict what will unfold and bet on the outcome.

So then we get to the generics and those are the ones I will focus on.

Let's do .Club

First of all when I apply my test of Need, Want and Desire, almost all will rate very low on "Need". There is little "Need" for any of this. So let's not make false foundations. Need is universally LOW! Bullshit is about to become universally high trying to overcome the FACT that there is no need! We already heard some of it. We are running out of .coms. Bullshit! .Com is your fathers extension. More bullshit. And friend or foe, I am allergic to bullshit and I will point it out each time. If you like stepping in it, then by all means don't let me stop you.

Then we get to WANT! Want is another story. And .Club actually ranks rather well on want. I could see clubs wanting their name. So let's discuss the most valuable .clubs. Those will be famous and trademarked .clubs and that has no meaning to you and me. However there are a number of generic clubs. Problem is most clubs like that would not have a lot of money as a general rule. Now there are exceptions and it will be those exceptions that you would have to focus on. So Bridge.club to a women's Thursday condo club has no value. You need a national bridge club to WANT that domain for a lot of money. Do they WANT it? That is the question?? They certainly don't need it.

Then we go to desire. You really need to desire something before you even get to want. I don't know that folks are going to desire these. They may. There are enough clubs so it could have a basis and a foundation. Will they desire it in time is the only question?

You can take a gtld like that and stand it next to .tatoo for example. Given those two, I would bet on .club. But of course, we have many more choices, so keep your wallet in your pockets for the time being.

Then .sexy is the last one for today. There is only one thing I am 100% certain of when it comes to .sexy. I am certain that sexy.com is the immediate and big winner. There is no gamble there whatsoever. Sexy.com does not have to do a thing. On the other hand the .Sexy registry, needs many thousands of what comes down to "Sub-domains".  That loops right back around to co.com. They seem to be betting that the .com is imperative on the end and are going to be there to take advantage of the confusion factor if that materializes. But don't mind me. I am a simple man who is easily confused. Luckily hundreds of millions know how I feel.

I will match each one against .web. Why .web? Because so far that would seem the one that makes the most sense for any type of wide adaptation in which ANY word or phrase can be used in conjunction with it.

But .web could be another .biz or .net. Could be. I am not certain. I can see scenarios for either. And that is what our job is. Be certain about what we are certain of and be flexible on what we are not certain of. With each new bit of info, even certain has to be looked at again and recalculated. You either become more or less certain. But this is still a process that must be done mentally to get to a conclusion and an answer before others do.

So .web if it had some broad support and advertising could be an extension that puts .net on their heels. A good case could be made to abandon a .net and use a .web if it were to be embraced by the public. My comments on .web go back years and as Franky pointed out during our debate last month, they opted for .info instead. That was a HUGE mistake. Had they used .web at that time, I think things would look a lot different today.

Need, want, desire.

Need to me is universally 1 on the 1-10 scale. It may decline from there. ;-)

Want, comes down to the audience it will attract. .Club could do well on want. .web could do well on want. .London could do well on want. When it comes to desire, that is what they need to instill in folks and that is a TALL order. To instill desire on something you don't actually need. Tough mountain. Depends how the locals embrace and use it. Depends if the locals are not the ones that own the domains. Depends on all types of restrictions that could be in play. That applies to all the geos universally. We know the city is behind .nyc. But what we don't know is who and how many will adapt to it and who basically will reside there. Who will or will not advertise it. All unknowns and most of the unknowns don't end well. And the confusion factor is always there.

Brands are separate and the only thing we need to watch for and be aware of is adaptation and advertising. Whether it will be used as an internal or external platform. Without that, it is nothing more than a patent in a drawer that may or may not have useful value.

Look, I enjoy talking about the unknown. Comparing notes, thoughts and ideas. The elbows will eventually fly with 700 horses in a derby meant for 15-20. They will contradict each other. Stumble over each other and basically do damage to each other. More than my thoughts could ever do. Sorry, that's the way it is likely to unfold. I can't control any of that. I can just see it before it materializes and articulate it beforehand. Tell me next Christmas how wrong I am. Kumbya won't be in the top 100.

Sales are hard to make. But sales make the world go around. Without sales all the 700 die on the vine. No 2 ways about it. A true catch 22. Domainers looking for the second coming are likely to snap up whatever they can afford and if that smothers the end-user out, game over! On the other hand if they are depending on the end-user and startups to support them, could be the same result. A balancing act for sure. It will take a few years to see who survives. There is simply not enough oxygen out there to support them all. Each collapse can only hurt those that remain. Can only cast a shadow on the others. That is why there will be a lot of turmoil to come.

And they will be FORCED to resort to bullshit as we have already seen. They must paint a blue sky or who in their right mind would invest? When selling, there is allowable bullshit and bullshit that is to the point of misleading and lying. See when you have to mislead and lie to sell, that is a very weak sale. That is a sale that may bounce. That is a sale riddled with problems.  That may not be a sale at all. I think we have all been fooled enough with the promises of riches with extensions that have done nothing but suck up investors money.

I really do want to see what they see. Just don't pee on my leg and tell me it is raining. Tell me the benefits of your .whatever without having to resort to silly stuff that will never filter down to your target audience anyways and alienates domainers that could actually invest if they did not think they were getting bullshitted AGAIN! It's all about the .whatever and what value it has to offer. The same people saying this and that didn't see the recovery and BOOM we are in now just a few months back when I started pointing to the reasons we would be where we are now. But it is not about now, it's about where we will be in a year from now.

I really don't care who runs the registry. Network Solutions was perhaps the worst company I ever had the pleasure to do business with. They were so inept back in 1995 and 1996 tat they forgot to put in a cash register and actually charge for each domain name. Did not seem to hurt .com and they were like an angel investor to me. By the time the first bill actually came, I was making money online and I had more income than bills.

This is fun and exciting times for us. However the new registries are under the gun to make money. They have overhead, staffs, rent, attorney bills, ICANN bills and then they have to suffer delay after delay after delay. That is very costly and some of them are in a world of pain. So when I hear domainers say for $185k they could have owned a registry, not so fast. And since we are ging to have 700 under the gun at virtually the same time, IMAGINE the bullshit they and their folks are about to spew. I have written about it for 18 months and now we are seeing it.

Besides that, 75% of "Domainers" and "Domain Flippers" that we all know, will be working for these companies. So friend or foe, it is about the viability of each extension and the opportunity to make money that will be my driving force and the only thing that gets in the way of that is BULLSHIT and that is why you will NEVER see me relent when it comes to BS. No way Jose!

So my advice for each gTLD, is stick with the facts, don't make up sales and don't try to marginalize something else in order to make your case. That dog won't hunt. It's weak and transparent. Really.

Just one last promise.

If you like your .Com, you can keep your .Com. Period! See I think when it comes to bullshit, we have all heard quite enough. So become Joe Friday from Dragnet. Nothing but the FACTS. I point to EMPIRICAL evidence backed by numbers. Ignoring that is not the road to make a sale.

Rick Schwartz