The Rick Schwartz Domain Name and Traffic Blog RicksBlog.com.........Home of the "Domain King"

90 Days of Fury and then............

Morning Folks!!

The next 90-120 days will be absolutely furious. Perhaps the single best business environment I have ever seen. There will be more companies that are “All in” at one time than ever before in the history of civilization.

“Rick! How the hell can you make these outlandish statements with no facts to back you up?”

It’s easy, it is just a FACT that has yet to happen and just because the experts can’t see it does not mean I have to be blind to it. This is going to happen just like the sun will rise tomorrow. That is what my gut says and I listen to my gut not Paine Webber, not some "Expert" not some government official, not someone with a motive, not someone selling stock, etc. etc. etc. My gut.

Of course this is just half the story. The other half is what happens in 2010. Those that go “All in”. Some will win, some will lose, there will be many more losers.  Some big ones will topple. So what is coming is a last effort at success for many. And even if they gain success for themselves, it may be short lived as new taxes and other headwinds will start to play a large role in things. So survival even in 2010 does not guarantee survival after that.

One thing I have maintained is these jobs that have been lost for the most part will never come back. That is something we have not dealt with for a very long time and the only way out is to retrain the population to do 21^st century jobs.  Dig ditches or learn to build a website. I see a second crisis in housing. What happens when folks owe $500k on their house and the same house across the street is selling for $250k and has more upgrades? What percent will walk away? It's coming.

But the point of this post is to let you know that the single greatest window of opportunity in MY lifetime is opening and it won’t be open long. Just look back at my posts during the past 12-14 months. It explains the things we have gone thru and each step of the way was a guide to be ahead of the curve. To see what I saw coming around the bend. I have maintained that through these bad times would produce great opportunity. The greatest of opportunities. Most are blind to this. Just don’t see it. But we are here on the doorstep. The period we are entering is one to take notice of. Take notice because you will never see it again in your lifetimes. I have a knack for spotting “Unique Opportunities in Time.” This is one of them. A very short window but a life changing window. A window that will come crashing down this winter and beyond.

Participate or sit on the sidelines. Just don’t say you didn’t know or understand. There is not one person reading my blog that should not walk away from this period as a big winner. It may not be visible today, but make sure when you look back to 2009 that you can point to at least one thing that absolutely changed your life. DO NOT walk away from 2009 and this Fall empty handed. Way too many treasures out there and only the ones that don’t believe it won’t find it.

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

2009 will be a Record Year for Domain Sales. Why that may not be good.

Morning Folks!!

The Domain Industry is not in trouble. However many sponsors and individual domainers are! Prices that domains are fetching are very good. However the reason some domainers and companies are selling is not very good. In fact, it is very bad. That “Monthly nut” that we all have is eating some up. Some domainers, some companies, some sponsors. They are FORCED to sell because of their overhead. Because of salaries. Because if they don’t, their spreadsheets are gonna look like shit in 2009 and they are scrambling. Many have watched their business model totally disrupted. Their incomes have been slashed and their bills have not. The leads to a lot of weak companies in the space. Those that are ahead on this may be in much better shape. Those can take advantage of the weakness of others. Great bargains are out there. Luckily, more than half of folks that buy domain don’t know diamonds from glass. And if they do figure it out they had to waste hours reading analytics instead of having the gut to know the difference in a split second.

Here is an outright prediction. On the surface it may look good. But it isn’t. My prediction is that Ron Jackson will report that 2009 will be the #1 year for total domain sales that he can track. With the year 3.5 months away from the end, I feel confident we will break that record. Problem is it won’t be a record broken from strength, it is a record born out of weakness. While income is extremely important, it is the overhead these companies and individuals have that is driving this avalanche of sales. While many focus on more income and we should, all I can say is getting your monthly overhead in line is what will determine your survival.

The worst is not behind us. Huge consolidation and outright collapses will happen in the coming months. There are pockets of hopes, but canyons of despair. There won’t be headlines announcing it, they will just quietly disappear. Unless they owe a lot of money. Then we’ll hear about.

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

The 20 Year Plan DEFINED in One Sentence!

Mornimg Folks!!

Owen sent me this last night. Funny thing, I was trying to describe just yesterday about my journey and the attidudes during that trip but was having difficulty articulating it. But in just the few words below tells the story. Tells the entire story of a 20 year plan.

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." -Mahatma Gandhi

My 20 Year Plan

First 5 years 1995-2000 First they ignore you

Next 5 years 2000-2005 then they laugh at you

Next 5 years 2005-2010 then they fight you

Next 5 years 2010-2015 then you win

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

9/11 Memorial Post

Morning Folks!!

Some may forget, but it can't be any of us. Some may not care but it can't be any of us. Some may excuse but it can't be any of us. Some may deny but it can't be any of us. Some may blame but it can't be ant of us. Some may ignore but it can't be any of us. Some want to track these pricks down and it has to be all of us. The media seldom shows the actual event anymore. That in itself is a crime. No wonder so many forget the unforgettable. Just another day? For some it is. But it can't be for any of us.

Have a REFLECTFUL Day!

Rick The Whistle Blower to Return?

Morning Folks!!

I first made a name for myself in the adult business. I became a whistle blower of sorts. Through my testing I identified companies that were largely in business to screw webmasters out of their earnings.  In other cases I mediated many times between webmaster and sponsor to work things out before they went public. Once they went public, all bets were off. Once something goes public you can’t put it back in the box.

I can’t tell you how many companies went out of business overnight or disappeared once they got caught. Once they got caught, they would collapse within days. Any webmaster sending traffic would pull it and the word would spread like wildfire. They would try and pop up under a new name and they got tracked down like hunted prey.

In adult, once you are found out to be a crook, it comes crashing down no matter how big you are. Watched it too many times. I am sure someone will post some of the folks that fell. So long ago, it is hard to remember.

Point of this post is this is about to become a problem again. As companies struggle to survive, it is YOU and ME that will keep them in business. The easiest one to target is the webmaster or domainer that sends traffic. The easiest one to shave or not pay at all. Shave? You don’t know what “Shaving” is? Let me cut to the chase, if your earnings were not being “Shaved” over the years, you would have enough to pay off everything you owe and still have more money left over than cash you have on hand. In other words, you can’t talk about “Shaving” but it surely exists.

But I have gotten off the main subject. The point is that the crooks outnumber the legit guys by a very wide margin. Some may disagree. I know better. I test. I retest. I know things they don’t even know because I understand numbers and they don’t. They leave footprints and other clues when they bastardize the numbers by cheating you. Even some of the affiliate managers may not know what the site owner is doing.

So as you look for new solutions, also look for crooks. Problem is when most find a crook they don’t say anything. When I found a crook, I exposed them. Let them deal with the mess. Not my problem. That’s the crap you just have to live with when you are a crook.

So as you venture into CPA, Commsssion based programs, Lead Generation and other ways to monetize your traffic, MANY WILL SCREW YOU! That’s a fact folks! Only the naïve don’t believe it, don’t see it or don’t want to see it. Sometimes it is more overt. They just make an excuse not to pay you. Not to pay you AFTER you did your part and sent them traffic. So in the early days folks knew if they were getting screwed to come to me and I would investigate things. Most of the time I was able to get resolution behind the scenes. But when that failed, it went public and since the crooks always lost, I gained some friends and a reputation for getting webmasters the money that was owed them. The boards are very unforgiving when somebody gets screwed. Usually the public outburst lead to others coming forward with similar stories. Then they either pay or fold. Not much in between. However some still survive to this day. They just prey on folks that don’t know better.

But it was this treatment and problems that lead to the rise and popularity of PPC. It largely took that crap off the table. There was finally some consistency. Payouts would fluctuate but did not have the swings you had to deal with when you employed other solutions. They have provided a platform to park, host and monetize those domains. What that does is free up your time to develop or do whatever you want to do.

The reason for this post is with PPC payouts as low as they are we begin to look for alternate methods to monetize. My suggestion, get paid first! Have a relationship BEFORE you send your traffic. You will hear every excuse in the world or accusation. Be prepared. Be prepared not to get what you think you earned. Be prepared for some to just disappear. Be prepared to suffer losses you did not worry about with PPC.

And when you get hammered by somebody, make sure you share your story so others don’t have to get screwed and you don’t keep making these crooks more and more money. Making it public becomes your last and only option. But making it public forces them to make things right or it is over for them. Plain and simple. Done! Also share the stories of the good merchants that have done you right. This helps to squeeze out all those that would cheat and deceive you, me and everyone. 

Have a story? Did you not get paid for traffic sent? Please post your story so others understand the power of what I am saying. So others understand the mine field we are about to go through. So others understand that this has been a very big problem in the past and a much bigger one to come in the future.

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

BREAKING NEWS From T.R.A.F.F.I.C. (Time Sensitive)

Morning Folks!!

The New York City TRAFFIC show truly marks the end of an era and the beginning of a new challenge as we trail blaze into the next decade. There will be a number of "Lasts" and even more "Firsts." Our version of the "Shark Tank" will become a "Signature event" at this and future T.R.A.F.F.I.C. shows. We will be giving further details and some interesting twists that we have planned that once again will clearly demonstrate to everyone in the industry why TRAFFIC continually sets the tone and agenda. Why we lead and others follow. Why we continue to have the most creative, timely and imaginative agendas. Why we do everything first. Why the original is still the best.

Isn't that what it is all about? Staying ahead of the curve by a record of cutting edge accomplishment? First car on the roller coaster as opposed to just one in the middle? That first car will see things that the others will never and can never see and before anyone else gets to see it. That has a value way beyond anything I can say! Value way beyond a few hundred bucks. Follow, lead or get out of the way. There is serious work to do and things to accomplish in New York City and beyond! The equation has changed and now our job is to address that. New solutions are coming and it will be TRAFFIC that brings them to you and brings them to you first as we have done year after year after year. Show after show after show. Each a landmark event in the history of the Domain Industry.

Next week the prices of a ticket to TRAFFIC go up to $1795 from the current $1495 level. We realize that so many of you were distracted over the summer and now you begin to focus on business. In the meantime Howard and I have been able to negotiate certain concessions from the Marriott. So we have decided to offer a $200 Marriott Room Credit for just the next 48 hours. So if you buy a ticket to TRAFFIC by 5:00 P.M. Friday at $1495, you will effectively have prices rolled back to mid summer level of $1295. That is $500 off the price that goes into effect just next Wednesday when the admission fee goes up to $1795 and then finally to $1995 next month. This promises to be one of the most dynamic shows in a long time and I will tell you why after just one other significant announcement.

In another FIRST, we are taking what we like to call "Conditional Reservations" for T.R.A.F.F.I.C. This is a new program designed for those who have yet to sign up and are waiting until the full agenda is announced. All that you have to do to take advantage of this opportunity is to simply email me no later than 5 P.M. Tuesday and I will reserve a $1495 slot that will be good until 24 hours after the final schedule is posted and announced in just a few weeks. It's a no-brainer for anyone who thinks that they just might want to attend and save $500 just for sending an email. Between the tight voting on the 2009 T.R.A.F.F.I.C. AWARDS and the T.R.A.F.F.I.C. SHARK TANK that have already been announced, plus two premium Domain Auctions by MONIKER and RICK LATONA AUCTIONS, plus the party of the year to be put on by SKENZO, there will be additional news and surprises as we approach the show. Every minute you spend at TRAFFIC is going to be time that is going to pay dividends for a very long time.

Howard and I have done everything in our power to bring costs down and to make the show more affordable without cutting corners. We continue to provide you with as many opportunities as possible. For all those who have already paid the $1495 price (and only the $1495 price) we will apply a $200 credit against your room at the Marriott automatically. We will never penalize you for registering early!

Thanks for your time and in the coming days we will demonstrate once again why TRAFFIC continues to lead.

Rick Schwartz and Howard Neu

THE T.R.A.F.F.I.C. SHARK TANK COMES TO NEW YORK. Enter Now!

Morning Folks!!

Modeled after the popular T.V. show "Shark Tank", T.R.A.F.F.I.C. NEW YORK is inviting all persons who have domain projects in development or business plans for expansion of their web sites to apply for an opportunity to present their plans to a panel of Domain experts for the purpose of obtaining funding for their projects in exchange for giving up a "piece of the action". 

We will be inviting the nominees for 2009 "Domainer of the Year" award to participate. Well-known domain investors such as Michael Berkens, David and Michael Castello, Lonnie Borck, Alan Hack, Rick Latona, Jerry Nolte, Shaun Pilfold and Rick Schwartz. All will be invited to be on the T.R.A.F.F.I.C. SHARK TANK panel to fund your project. No Nonsense, REAL business. Real deals. Real Money. Watch history unfold before your very eyes.

Just send us an email (howard at neulaw.com) 50 words or less why your project should be chosen for these presentations and our panel of investors will decide which ones get to make the presentation for funding.  All applicants will be notified as to whether they will be included.  This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to get your web site the funding you need to make it the success that you envision.

Join us for our Gala T.R.A.F.F.I.C. 5th Anniversary Celebration. Like so many previous TRAFFIC conferences, this one will be a mile marker in your life and career.

Labor Day is behind us. The summer vacation season is over. Now it is time to focus on business. To do business. To make things happen. To get your share of opportunity. The next 120 days will go down in history no matter what the outcome.

Finding great opportunity and precisely the right time is priceless. TRAFFIC's only product is opportunity for all. Opportunities to make deals, meet new folks and grow your business. Formats can be dublicated, but you can't duplicate a vision that is so many years in the making and is geared solely to the furtherance of the domain industry and the success of people like you reading this note.

We think that doing things like "Shark Tank" will add a dimension and excitement that will involve all of us in projects we otherwise would not even know about. Deadline for entries is September 30, 2009.

Rick and Howard

School Sucks Then and Now and Here is Why

Morning Folks!!

I was not a very good student in school until the last semester of High School. Until then I was a “D” student. 1.75 GPA going into that last semester! I graduated with exactly enough credits to make it. In that last semester I had something to prove. I can’t even count the number of schools I went to.  Three in just the last 3 semesters of high school. I did not get in trouble, but I was bored. Plain and simple. School did little more than grade you on how well you memorize things. That’s about it. What are the chances a kid wants to remember something they are not even interested in? Other than Math and some points  of history, I was just bored.  So do they still do it this way? Is memory as important if you have access to all the info in the world in the palm of your hands? Is that the #1 thing anymore?

I look at it differently. I believe you only need to teach a child one thing. One thing! If you can unlock this little lynch pin, just do it and get the hell out of the way. The only thing worth spending time on is to teach a child to embrace learning. That’s it. Nothing more, nothing less. Once he has a burning desire to learn, all they need is some guidance. The majority of the other stuff is no longer useful. Math, English, History, may still have to be taught. But not by boring teachers!

If you want to teach me about the history of computers, let Steve Jobs do a documentary and distribute it. He just may be a little more compelling than 5 million teachers spread out all teaching something different and in many cases not even true or accurate. This is a new era. We still teach like it was 200 years ago. (Atleast in the USA and the education scores prove it)

Math to me is the cornerstone of it all. It’s why I write about numbers. If kids are only taught using a calculator, they will never be able to have the logic that one needs in life. Logic is based on numbers. Good decision making is largely based on numbers. So many parts of life are based on numbers and without a strong understanding of numbers and the impact of them it is a true handicap in so many situations.

In that last semester of High School I got straight “A’s” and made the Dean’s list for the first time. I proved I could do it. I proved many things in that semester some 40 years ago. But my education really never even began until I left school and started working. Getting jobs. Working in different industries. Traveling. Having an enormous amount of time to think about life and what I wanted out of it and what life wanted out of me.

I still have teachers. But the teachers I have used are not found in a classroom today. They are figures of the past and present. From the guy pumping gas to the maid, to the watron, to anyone my life’s path intersects with. 

But there are also 2 or 3 guys from history whose wisdom and advice I use and ask for on a continuing basis. Whose quotes are a guiding light. Ben Franklin, Mark Twain, Albert Einstein. Those are the best 3 teachers I ever had and they continue to teach me to this very day.

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

A 9 is a 9 is a 9 is a 9. Numbers don't Lie, People do!

Morning Folks!

A 9 is a 9 is a 9 is a 9 and it will stay that way until the end of time. A 9 is a 9 for me. A 9 is a 9 for you. A 9 is a 9 even if you are not 9. A 9 is a 9 for everyone. Every person, every place. It does not matter what language you speak, what party you are affiliated with, what religion you believe, what part of the planet you are on.  A 9 is a 9. A 5 is a 5. It’s the one piece of the universe that is constant. That is perfect. Numbers don’t lie, people do. People with motives to make a 9 anything other than a 9. To be frank, nothing pisses me off more than somebody bastardizing numbers to suit their own purpose. We have witnessed the greatest bastardization of numbers since dirt came to earth and folks, we are all going to pay dearly for this. Don't believe me, believe the damn numbers if you have enough balls to actually do the math and follow the bouncing ball.

I tried to do a little math on my iphone calculator today. It crashed it each and every time. My old calculator can’t handle the numbers either. But I am a numbers guy. I can still do it long hand. I can also attach a meaning to what we are all going through. My friends, the numbers don’t work, we are coming to a true crossroads. Don’t believe me, believe the numbers. Numbers don’t lie people do. Politicians do. Stock brokers do. Accountants do. Banks do. And when you find out that they all lied, it is YOU that will be hosed. It is you that has already been hosed.

I have thought long and hard this year. I have worked every angle. I have looked at things 1000 different ways. The numbers don't lie. Numbers are my friends. I have come to the conclusion that income producing domain names are the single best asset on the planet. Not a one better including gold. No matter what happens to the dollar or the euro or any other currency or political unstability or war, income producing domains have no equal. None. It is the single best hedge against whatever is to come. It may fluctuate, that is what markets do, but I don't see greater safety in any other single asset at this moment in time. Of course the rules can and will change and your assets will and have become targets. But they are targets for the very reason I have stated. It is the electronic gold of this century and your #1 JOB is to protect your booty.

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

The REAL Domain Industry Size. How Valuable is Your Time?

Morning Folks!!

The domain industry is much smaller than you might think. If you define the people you will see that after a certain number, folks come from “Central Casting”. The time wasters and folks that do this as a hobby or part time that have worthless domains and just take up room and time. I won’t be making any new fans with this post. Here is the breakdown as I see it:

The entire domain Industry is about 2000-3000 but that included employees and other allied folks that are not actually domainers. So if you take those folks off then we are down to about 1000-1500. From those you would have to peal off the part time guys. That would bring you down to about 500-650. Then to break that down further, you would ask how many of those do this full time and make over $100k a year? Now we are down way under 500. Maybe 250-350. Probably less. That’s it my friends. I think the industry comprises about 350-500 domainers and then the rest are sponsors and employees of sponsors and then all the rest. What would you say the breakdown is?

You can’t be all things to all folks so you have to choose what and who to focus on. When I sold product at a tradeshow and I had 100 people in front of me, my job was to blow away the 95 that would waste my time and energy and get to the ones that wanted to do business and place an order right now. Weeding out the crap is the difference between success and failure. Between your time being valuable and your time being wasted. TIME is our only natural resource. So I learned a way to segregate folks. If made the buyers happy and pissed off the rest. Ok, fine. I would get up and bark:

“BUYERS ON THE LEFT, NON BUYERS ON THE RIGHT, CASH UP FRONT!”

That would usually get a chuckle from the crowd and then they knew in an instant that I was not kidding. I would grab an invoice, a clipboard and a pen and then I would shut up and start writing. I had no time for the 95. I was focused on the 5. Once I was done with the 5, then maybe I would look for #6. It was the difference between making money and talking about making money.

That is deep in me and even shows itself at TRAFFIC. I don’t want the other 95. I want the 5. I want the 50. In this case, I want the 350-500. The ones that have made it and the ones that have the passion in their belly to get there. The others are just time wasters from Central Casting. They will never make you a penny. How valuable is your time? How much of your precious time are you willing to waste, piss away, never get back? For me, let them call me rude, arrogant, let them call me whatever, but the ultimate rude is somebody that wastes your time and energy. The time wasters of the world are a huge segment. Their gravitational pull is strong. Is your will to avoid BS and time wasters stronger than their will to waste your time? Are you man enough or woman enough to be rude and declare yourself free of time wasters in this life? Do you even know how to spot a time waster? Then take the TIME to learn as that will be TIME well spent. It will pay dividends that can be counted in minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and years. That does not even count the benefits you will get by never wasting your time with those that live just to waste it. The benefits by investing your time wisely. You are not here for your health. This is not a disco. This is business. Those that want to do business, grow their business, do great things for them and their families, don't waste their time with those that don't.

Today is September 1. It marks the beginning of the business cycle. The beginning of what most would agree may be the most important business cycle in our lifetimes. The stakes in the coming months is very high. Go back and read what I wrote last Fall. The stuff nobody believed. The stuff that has actually happened and is happening. Most thought they were immune. Most would have been wrong. Your time has never been more valuable. If you don't see and understand that, read this post again. Take a day off. Take a week off. Take off as much time as it takes to figure this out as we are going to enter a period of pain and prosperity. What will determine which side of the fence you are on is how you played the game unil now and the adjustments you are willing to make. Time wasted is money lost and life we will never get back.

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz