Is Bitcoin about to hit a 6 Month Low? Hovering just above $6000

Morning Folks!!

I sold all my bitcoin a while back before it crashed. Timing is everything! But Bitcoin has lost a lot of luster since then and it may be poised to hit a 6 month low of $6000 from a high close to $20,000 last December. Crypto is depressed.

Will I buy bitcoin again? Not as an investment. I may buy to use as a form of payment, but that would only be in small quantities. I might still take bitcoin as a form of payment.

I pulled down a 7 figure total bitcoin gain in 2017. About half from coins I had bought during earlier years and then about half from those coins that I bought in 2017 up to the $5000 mark which was my cutoff and I wrote about it at the time. But I don't see that repeating itself anytime soon. I feel bad for those that bought at the high. Hopefully they cut their losses before they got hurt.

Supply and demand in real time. Supply is up, demand is down. Last year it was a HUGE Christmas gift. THAT is what I believe drove up the prices along with the momentum. Both are now gone and while I think there will be a modest rise during Christmas, it won't be a repeat of 2017 IMHO.

That frenzy is over! Looking for the next wave. The next thing. It's sitting there RIGHT NOW!! What do you think the next "Big Thing" is and how to get into it TODAY!

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

How do I Afford to Carry these Domains For 20 Years? My First Question and Hurdle.

Morning Folks!!

The first question I asked myself was how do I carry these great domains for 20 years? 20 years because that was the timeframe I believed it would take for all this "Information Superhighway" as it was called back then, to hit critical mass. Most concern themselves first with selling the golden goose they just acquired. I wanted EGGS!

My thought process was how do I AVOID being forced into selling a domain name? My GOAL was to have as much of my entire portfolio intact in 20 years and only selling when the goose was perfectly Golden Brown.

My GOAL was NOT to sell domain names but to acquire and collect them until TIME ran out on that. It was a race against time. I was filling up my shopping cart. I was filling up as many carts as I could as fast as I could. The thought of selling was NEVER even on my mind. What was on my mind was demand for what I owned. The rest would naturally fall in place without me doing a thing.

But that was all BEFORE I began the process of monetizing those domains. That gave it an entirely new dimension. A profitable dimension. One I never expected in the volume it did. PPC raked in about $30 million over the years. Why sell?? Those eggs were being laid faster than I could count them or eat them. It was a windfall far greater than anything I had ever imagined.

At the time I had no idea which direction things would go. There was no mainstream and adult had barely begun. But adult was the only game in town for the first few YEARS!

Adult was the only way to pay for the domains I had and allowed me to keep buying more and more and better and better domains. I will never apologize for following the only trail there was at the time. I could have made tens of millions more had I had adult content. But I did not want the liability. Laws are murky at best. Any politician can decide to make an example of you. Just ask Sahar.

So I sent the traffic to third parties. I decided if they tried to make me liable for a simple link, then the entire Internet would just collapse as the Internet is all about links. I still believe that. Mugshots.com may have a problem, but try and go after somebody just linking to them. That dog won't hunt on this medium.

Fast Forward to today. My portfolio is still almost all intact (my original goal). The Golden Geese I have sold all made the DNJournal top sales list. Many in the annual top 10 or 20. I sold when those birds were golden brown which was also my original goal.

Thru all the naysayers I never veered off the path that I envisioned nearly 23 years ago. So here I am on the other side of my 20 year plan. What a fantastic ride it has been! Time for me to get back to the Geese!

I always believed that getting domains was like musical chairs. Once the music stopped, the best domains would be gone and never available again. So the key I really had, was a SENSE OF URGENCY!

Now when I see folks using that same game plan with GTLD's, I can only shake my head. It's just not the same. It's not even close. It's a bad dish with a terrible recipe and it has nothing in common with .com. Different time, different era, different demand, different needs, different audience, different EVERYTHING but these GENIUSES expect the same result. Not happening.

And as I write this it is reported that the biggest GTLD player, Famous Four, may be heading to bankruptcy. How much EVIDENCE would you like? Need more? Stay tuned as these folks start to DIE ON THE VINE!

Maybe it is time to question your sanity? If you want to have a real gut check, look at the domains listed on my post for GTLD's for sale. These are THEIR BEST!? Even I was surprised about the quality! A couple were ok. But by the time anyone ever hears of those extensions many of us will be DEAD! I never even heard of a few of them! I mean a nine letter extension to replace a 3 letter one? Really?? Why are 3 letter .com initials going for so much? Why are 3 digit and 4 digit .com number domains going for so much?

This entire Clusterf*ck is ass backwards as are half the extensions. Sorry, but verbs and adjectives usually go BEFORE the noun not after the noun. English 101.  .Best is one of my favorite upside down extensions. It's best this and best that. It's not this best and that best. DUH!

Here is the 20 year plan for new GTLD's for domain INVESTORS: You will all be broke and most of the registries will be as well.

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

Sorry to Say, But The Domain Name Industry IS in Decline! My Take.

Morning Folks!!

As I look at the current conditions of the domain industry I can only come to the conclusion that the industry is in major decline. It did not start yesterday or even this year, it started a few years back and it is just getting more noticeable. My vantage point may be different and probably much longer than most readers.

Looking back I would say 2005-2015 was the epicenter and also the peak for domain name investing. At least so far. Business is cyclical. Ebb and Flow. The very essence of business.

Now that does not mean domains won't roar again or continue to roar. But what it does mean is the market gets much more choosey and that affects our marginal domains. The domains of value will always rise to the top. Difference is the ones with no value will now fall all the way to the bottom as there will be less domainers to catch them and less cash chasing that garbage.

Now there are many opportunities that will come down the pike. All these Mergers will help to spinoff new companies and entities. These startups start out with $$$.

The Life, The Death and The Rebirth of the Industry of Domains is still how I see things. I just don't have a timeline for the rebirth mostly because of the new GTLD detour. But that detour is about to expire. That detour went nowhere. It wasted the time and money of domain investors and that is the primary reason for the decline. All those $$$,$$$,$$$ transferred from the wallets of domainers to the wallets of those that pulled the wool over your eyes and convinced you to buy a bag of worthless .crap. And btw, the majority of GTLD registrations I have seen are so bad that even with a .com on the end they would be worthless because just look at the junk posted for sale yesterday on my blog. Only a couple even made any sense.


Registries and registrars are doing just fine except for the 400 GTLD's that are insignificant and have less than 25,000 registrations. Only 6 GTLD's have more registrations than .Mobi. But that does not help domain investors who never learned that lesson about adoption and value. Along with .Net, .Info, .Biz and all the other garbage that are worth 1% or less of what the .com counterpart is worth and few will even buy them at that price. There is simply no demand, no circulation, limited advertising and not synonyms with the Internet as .com is and will FOREVER be.

Since 2004 I have maintained that registries and registrars are not your friends. They are nothing more that the Division of Motor Vehicles where you pay your damn tax and get your license plate and get the hell out. But Domain investors allowed them way too much control and influence and what was a thriving industry is now a totally splintered industry without direction or meaning.

Perhaps the thing that saved domainers last year was Bitcoin and Crypto. Does not look like that will repeat and demand/interest in those items have fallen considerably. The next big thing is not domains and it won't be crypto either. Those were the last big things. The ones losing their asses are playing a game that is already over. They don't look forward to tomorrow, they just keep chasing yesterday. They should just buy hula-hoops. That fad started in 1957. They still sell today. They would have better results even with that!

That all said, many of us will be domain investors for our entire lifetime. We have domains of great value that we plan to pass on even after we pass. We have to think like that. We play the long game and we play with blue chip .com names. We don't worry about making sales. We know they will come when they come. Personally, I look to just sell 1, 2 maybe 3 names a year. But for the rest of the group that has to hustle every day to make ends meet, that's a game that will get harder and less profitable as time passes. The steam roller of financial devastation is always close behind for so many. That's the decline I can visibly see.

Rick Schwartz

 

Is .Realty the #1 “Stinker” in the entire new GTLD World? Numbers Say So!

Good Afternoon Folks!!

What if I were to tell you there was one new GTLD that has 96% of all their domains about to be deleted? What if I told you that there were 55,786 .Realty names of which 54,078 are under Uniregistrar and 53,911 were to be deleted with 98.94 parked and as of now just 1976 in the zone file?

Maybe there is more than meets the eye but is this the future of stinkers?

https://ntldstats.com/tld/realty

Rick Schwartz

Graph of GTLD Failures Despite 100+++ New Extensions Released. 2 Years in the Making. June 2016-June 2018

Morning Folks!


Click to Enlarge and for clarity.

How bad is it?? REALLY REALLY Bad! Just consider the 100-200 maybe even more new GTLD's that came to market during past 2 years. The level of hemorrhaging going on and being ignored is stunning. It's like holding a stock like Sears, buying more each and every day and know that the value can only go down and eventually be worthless. Even the graphs have similarities.

If you bought Sears a year ago you would be down 80% and still liquid. That's a lot better than GTLD domainers are doing and they are far from liquid. Think about it.

Rick Schwartz

BREAKING!! Web.com SOLD for $2 BILLION!!

Morning Folks!!

BREAKING!! Bloomberg is reporting that Web.com has been SOLD for $2 BILLION to venture Capital group, Siris Capital!! WOW!! HUGE!! Can't wait to hear the details of this mega deal!

Here is the Release.

More to follow as it breaks!

Rick Schwartz

New GTLD’s Registrar Stats Missing Godaddy says a LOT! No End Users? My Take.

Morning Folks!!

When I look at a particular GTLD and their numbers I look for certain things. Mostly I look to see who the middleman is to see how strong a GTLD might be. As I have previously stated if it's not Godaddy, I raise an eyebrow since the are the #1 Registrar in the world and when I talk to just everyday people, it is Godaddy that they use. Almost exclusively for consumers and end users.

Here are some examples.

I started with #15 .stream. Over 97% of all registrations (284,921) are registered with NameCheap. Godaddy is #6 with 398. Huh? Why? Isn't that curious?? I am curious. If the #1 registrar in the world has 0.14% I am curious why? No end users?

Then I decided to dig a little deeper with the top 10 new GTLD's which combined have 11.5 Million Registrations. Slightly more than half of all new GTLD registrations. Godaddy had just 710,000 of those registrations. Not even close to 10%. Hovering around 7%.

220,000 regs were .xyz and 231,000 were .club and 144,000 were .online. Leaving the remaining 120,000 divided among the other 7 of the top 10.

The only extension of those that Godaddy was #1 is with .online

So I can't help but think how many of these registrations are, well let's just say "Questionable". I question whether they are registrations by registries themselves. I question if there are only a handful buying most of the domains. I question whether some are warehousing domains to pump up their numbers and to help keep foolish domainers buying more. I question whether these were giveaways.

I'm a numbers guy. Numbers paint pictures. And some pictures make little sense. There are questions to ask. Of all new GTLD's how many are owned by domainers? How many are owned by the registry? How many are owned by closely held companies, friends or family? And finally how many are being used by end users. HINT: The smallest group is the last group.

So when you take the 22MM registrations and break it down, the picture could not be uglier and the 22MM is far from a real number. It's fake because of all the shenanigans.

They smothered their own golden goose that was made of tin to begin with and now they have cornered the market except there is  no market! There is no demand. There is no need. And nobody in the universe wakes up in the morning desiring a new GTLD except some demented domainers.

It was a clusterf*ck in 2013. It's a clusterf*ck in 2018 and it will be a clusterf*ck in the future. We now have a winner of the demolition derby and so far the winner is NONE! 5 years into this and who is the clear leader? NOBODY! Easier to pick out the clear losers however there are hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of them. There are over 100 GTLD's that have less registrations than .horse. HA!

Go look at the disaster known as .Best. First of all the word "Best" comes first. Best this, best that. Their extension is ass backwards and so are their numbers. They lost 15% of their registrations yesterday. In 4 YEARS they have managed to now have 2700 registrations after topping out at 3274 more than a year ago. Just more domainers losing $$$$.

The bottom 250 extensions had a net loss but I don't have the time or desire to look at how many. I just see big numbers in red for deletes and tiny single digit green numbers that show registrations. It's remarkable. I also have to go to #91, .Art to find ONE SINGLE GTLD that had 100 registrations yesterday. Just 31 out of 500+ had 100 registrations or more. While deletions were a whopping 80,000+.

Any way you want to slice it, GTLD's are bleeding and bleeding badly. Their future is not bright, it is bleak and dark. Many are abandoning their plans of even using them and they paid for them. 500, 600 1000 extensions and so far, nothing meaningful in all these years. Not a single one has broken out or even shown any promise.

A stopped clock is right twice every single day of the year. Making money in GTLD's is the same. It's by accident. It will happen every once in a while. But that does not make YOUR clock work or have any value.

And I discount ALL REGISTRY SALES! ALL!!! If it's not a private domain investor that made the sale, there was no sale the way I JUDGE this game.

Have a GREAT Day!!

Rick Schwartz

 

New GTLD’s Record 33 TOTAL Registration gains in past 2 YEARS!

Morning Folks!

2 Years ago there were more new GTLD registrations then there are now. 2 years of gains wiped out and that is during a time that hundreds of them were released for the first time. Numbers should be skyrocketing but they are not. They are crashing and they are crashing very badly.

On June 22, 2016 there were 22,654,036 new GTLDs registered on the way to a high of 29,470,568 on April 13th 2017. Since then, it's been almost all down hill. As I write this today, the number stands at 22,674,069. A TOTAL of 33 domain increase over 2 YEARS and now we have over 1 million still to drop.  We have 2 days left before it's exactly 2 years.

22,654,036 on 6/22/16

29,470,568 on 4/13/17

22,674,069 TODAY (with 1,072,036 to be deleted)

Registries made money. Registrars made money. Domain investors lost their asses and continue to get financially hurt! Every day that passes most get weaker as renewals never take a day off.

Whatever your nut is, be sure to multiply it out by 10 YEARS! That's the real carrying cost. 20 50 years if you are smart.

The chart below tells the sad story. And that's with all the pumping and dumping and domain shows that are only held to prop up GTLD's. They have turned into Registry and Registrar shows for new GTLD's. Domain investors be damned. None of this is in YOUR best interest. It's in THEIR best interest. So they told you black is white until you swallowed it. Hook, line and sinker and guess what? What Many/MOST have now are BILLS not ASSETS! It's 5 years. It's not looking good!

Even Favorites like .Club are down 20% and more from their top level and their growth looks to be over as they struggle to maintain 1 million registrations. 14% of their entire registration base is about to be deleted. That's over 145,000 names and that will drop them to about 860,000 registrations from a high of 1.3 Million. That's about 35% of ALL their registrations and EVERY ONE is a domainer that lost money!

Even with TWO Triple Crown Winners in 3 years .Horse struggles as one of the worst performing New GTLD's with 2300 registrations in FOUR YEARS!

https://ntldstats.com/tld

So many others are simply DYING ON THE VINE! A term I have used for 5 years. Now you see why.

Domainers looking for the next coming are just being foolish. And the CRAP they register is just sad! They are chasing yesterday and not tomorrow.

Win, Place, Show. There COULD be up to 3 winners. But that means there will be 997 losers. 997 .Mobi's. Speaking of .Mobi, Estibot estimates my holdings that are worth $0 are actually worth $179k. LOLOL! But I have GREAT keywords! Guess what?? It is MEANINGLESS!

GreatKeyword.DumbGTLD = NOTHING!

GreatKeyword.Com = $$$$$$

One plants a bad seed hoping to sprout and it won't. The other buys someone else's thriving plant and it continues to thrive and grow.

GTLD's = SQUARE WHEELS!

The poor (and i mean poor) GTLD guys refuse to read what was predicted YEARS ago and memorialized and see how it dovetails with reality today. They refuse to recalibrate given new information. They are in way too deep. They are angry, frustrated and BROKE! Worst of all, they WASTED 5 YEARS of their lives on a bag of smoke when they could have actually made money with something tried and true. So they reinvented a square wheel that nobody wants. Especially end users.

So they said it was for startups. Well I would beg to differ. The best way to put a startup out of business is with a beautiful brand new GTLD that nobody ever heard of including MOST domainers.

When you see tens or hundreds of thousands of registrations and Godaddy has just 1000 of them, it's a really good chance it's a LOSER! If Godaddy is not the #1 registrar of any GTLD, you got a loser. I won't mention the names of the registries to be careful of. But you should be able to figure it out if you do your homework and research.

Domainers got lied to. They got fooled. They swallowed ever piece of shit that was fed to them by people with a motive. These folks have their minions that they use as their LOUD mouthpieces. They make up press releases and distribute them as fact. As news. As something important. Why not label it the advertising it actually is and charge to publish? I am sent stuff all the time. It seldom if EVER gets posted here. Glad so many others are willing to carry their water. I don't think they serve their readers very well and many censor negative viewpoints when it affects their agenda to begin with.

Independent voices are shut down, shot down and minimized regardless of the evidence at hand. And I still see the other side and look for it in the wild. I am even willing to post a picture of one in the wild. But if you don't ask the question: How much traffic do I lose to the .com" you are a schmuck that would rather ignore reality. There is a loss. There is a number. You MUST put a number if you don't want to fool yourself. Then of course you tell me about search. SCREW SEARCH!

Here is how many people see your url. On a BILLBORD. In a MAGAZINE. Advertised on TV or RADIO. Only a total techie fool would IGNORE those mediums. And don't forget Word of Mouth. The one below was in blacked out windows. So you have BostonSeaport.xyz. Does anyone really believe there is no leakage to .com?? Really? If you do, let me tell you one thing, you could not be any wronger and that means EVERYTHING gets filtered thru something based on hope not fact. Put a number on it. It's bigger than you think!! It's not 1%. Or 2% or even 20%. But keep fooling yourself into believing whatever you want. I guarantee that BostonSeaport.com is getting a lot of free and potentially targeted traffic.

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

 

 

The Untold Steering Wheel Story & Picking a Loser. Do you Know how to Spot a Loser?

Morning Folks!!

So, this is a story about sales, markets and steering wheels for cars in Detroit. I did business for many years with an importer. Then one day he got this bright idea that he was going to sell steering wheels and make a fortune. I laughed at him. I said Detroit has been buying steering wheels, brakes, etc from the same vendors for decades. No way they will buy.

Well he did not listen. I asked before you buy inventory, why don't you try and sell some first? He laughed at me. Said they needed inventory first. I laughed back, first sell one and the buy. He did not listen.

So he imported 7500 steering wheels.

How did he do? Well it sat on his shelves for years. He never sold any. I mean NONE! I think he died before the steering wheels were even sold.

Point is, get your first sale, FIRST and then figure out how to fulfill it. The only way to prove something is salable is to sell it first. Have a fist full of orders and you will be on your way up and be taken seriously.

There are millions of websites that have never made a sale and never will.

I have never started a business with a physical product without sales before I opened the door. If I can't make THREE sales FIRST, I have NOTHING! And the sales can not be to anyone I know. Cold calls. NO NONSENSE! You want a REAL result? Then you have the GUTS to get NO RESULT!

So many folks waste their time with something unproven and are too scared to actually prove it first. They are scared of the RESULT?? I would be scared of wasting my TIME! I want to know and I want the info quick!

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz