Valuation is in the eye of the beholder.

Morning folks!!


I have been very tough on appraisal services because I don't see
any that are truly qualified. I have blogged about appraisals several times.
And let me say, that appraising a domain and figuring value is a very difficult
thing. It is difficult because each domain is completely unique. Some domains
may be one dimensional while others may have many facets and are adaptable to
many companies, industries or promotions. It is difficult when you don't
know who the actual appraiser is. Do they appraise high? Do they appraise low?
Are they completely educated about domains? So a lot of
'Transparency' needs to happen here as well.


I tried an experiment and had 21 professional domain owners that I
know personally give their best shot on putting a value on 5 of my domains.
From a group of elite individuals like this it is possible to see a
picture develop and market price. I removed the names to protect their privacy.
I provided no stats whatsoever. But the numbers are the numbers and this was
done in a thoughtful manner. When I look at something like this I generally
throw out the high numbers and I throw out the low numbers. I try to focus on
the common numbers. In over 12 years on the net this was the first time I had
ever asked others for a valuation for valuations sake. See if a picture
develops for you.


Appraisal #1
Widgets.com - $350,000 - $500,000
Girls.net - $75,000 - $90,000
Candy.com - $3,000,000 - $4,000,000
Cheapest.com - $100,000 - $150,000
DailyVideo.com - $10,000 - $15,000
Appraisal #2
Widgets.com - $500K. I love this name for dev/branding/web 2.0
Girls.net - $250K. Would want to see what the .com is doing.
Candy.com - $1.5mm. Awesome premium generic. Enough said.
Cheapest.com - $50K. Not a big fan despite one word. Lots of substitutes.
DailyVideo.com - $25K. Same as above.
Appraisal #3
Widgets.com > no idea.
Girls.net > 2% of Girls.com ($4Million) $80,000
Candy.com > $2 Million.
Cheapest.com > $75K.
DailyVideo.com > $10K
Appraisal #4
Widgets.com - $400k
Girls.net - $75k
Candy.com - $3M
Cheapest.com - $60k
DailyVideo.com - $30k
Appraisal #5
Widgets.com - $1M
Girls.net - $50k
Candy.com - $2M
Cheapest.com - $100k
DailyVideo.com - $10k
Appraisal #6
Widgets.com $5,000,000.
Girls.net $ 125,000.
Candy.com $7,500,000.
Cheapest.com $ 200,000.
DailyVideo.com $ 100,000
Appraisal #7
Widgets.com - $150,000
Girls.net - $30,000
Candy.com - $3,000,000
Cheapest.com - $400,000
DailyVideo.com - $10,000
Appraisal #8
Widgets.com - $250,000
Girls.net - $35,000
Candy.com - $1,400,000
Cheapest.com - $3,000
DailyVideo.com - $2,500
Appraisal #9
Widgets.com - $10,000,000
Girls.net - $500,000
Candy.com - $5,000,000
Cheapest.com - $100,000
DailyVideo.com - $100,000
Appraisal #10
Widgets.com $1m
Girls.net $100K
Candy.com $2M
Cheapest.com $150K
DailyVideo.com $20K
Appraisal #11
End User Numbers
Widgets.com $2M
Girls.net $250K
Candy.com $4.5M
Cheapest.com $1M
DailyVideo.com $40K
Appraisal #12
Widgets.com $750,000
Girls.net $185,000
Candy.com $2,500,000
Cheapest.com $275,000
DailyVideo.com $25,000
Appraisal #13
domain - market value-end user value
Widgets.com - $225,000-$250,000
Girls.net - $40,000-$65,000
Candy.com - $800,000-$1,800,000
Cheapest.com - $75,000-$350,000
DailyVideo.com - $12,500-$35,000
Appraisal #14
domain - market value-end user
Widgets.com - $400,000-600,000
Girls.net - $10,000-15,000
Candy.com - $3,000,000-5,000,000
Cheapest.com - $35,000-50,000
DailyVideo.com - $10,000-15,000
Appraisal #15
Widgets.com - $500K
Girls.net - $100K
Candy.com - $5M
Cheapest.com - $350K
DailyVideo.com - $50K
Assumes motivated end user in right place at the right time with the right
resources.
Appraisal #16
Widgets.com
Wholesale Level 1 - $100K - $250K
Wholesale Level 2 - $250K - $500K
Retail Level 1 - $500K - $1M
Retail Level 2 - $1M - $2M 


Girls.net
Wholesale Level 1 - $50K - $75K
Wholesale Level 2 - $75K - $150K
Retail Level 1 - $150K - $250K
Retail Level 2 - $250K - $500K


Candy.com
Wholesale Level 1 - $250K - $500K
Wholesale Level 2 - $500K - $1M
Retail Level 1 - $1M - $2M
Retail Level 2 - $2M - $5M


Cheapest.com
Wholesale Level 1 - $35K - $50K
Wholesale Level 2 - $50K - $100K
Retail Level 1 - $100K - $200K
Retail Level 2 - $200K - $500K
Ultimate Dream - Perfect name for a price comparison site. Strategy would be
the entrepreneur needing a dream style domain for capital tool purposes.
DailyVideo.com
Wholesale Level 1 - $2,500 - $5K
Wholesale Level 2 - $5K - $25K
Retail Level 1 - $25K - $50K
Retail Level 2 - $50K - $75K
Appraisal #17
Widgets.com -- $700,000
Girls.net -- $80,000
Candy.com -- $1,500,000
Cheapest.com -- $50,000
DailyVideo.com -- $15,000
Appraisal #18
Widgets.com 130,000
Girls.net 45,000
Candy.com 1,300,000
Cheapest.com 40,000
DailyVideo.com 10,000
Mostly on the 'Wholesale/Investor' side IMO -
Appraisal #19
Widgets.com - $350K
Girls.net - $50K
Candy.com - $2M
Cheapest.com - $1M
DailyVideo.com - $25K
Appraisal #20
domain - market value-end user
Widgets.com -$550,000- $1,300,000
Girls.net - $70,000- $135,000
Candy.com - $600,000-$1,750,000
Cheapest.com - $95,000-$125,000
DailyVideo.com - $25,000-$45,000
Appraisal #21
Widgets.com -- $1M
Girls.net -- $200k
Candy.com -- $1.2M
Cheapest.com -- $2.8M
DailyVideo.com -- $500k



Moniker professional and paid Appraisal
Widgets.com -- $227,300
Girls.net -- $81,900
Candy.com -- $2,237,400
Cheapest.com -- $146,800
DailyVideo.com -- $23,700


What does it all mean? I don't know. That’s for you to comment on.
While the Moniker appraisals were in line with many of the others, I would not
sell at the appraised levels if I got those offers today.   


Have a GREAT day!
Rick Schwartz


UPDATE. The following numbers have been provided by Bob Connor. Special thanks for taking the time to crunch some interesting numbers:


Here are the averages, medians (mid points), and standard deviations
(measure of how much variability) for appraisals for each of the
domains.


Widgets.com:
Average =      $1,247,348
Median =         $500,000
Std. Dev =     $2,210,824
Girls.net:
Average =        $119,452
Median =          $81,900
Std. Dev =       $105,250
Candy.com:
Average =      $2,580,974
Median =       $2,000,000
Std. Dev =     $1,635,693
Cheapest.com:
Average =        $323,948
Median =         $130,000
Std. Dev =       $589,405
DailyVideo.com:
Average =         $48,670
Median =          $23,700
Std. Dev =        $99,436




We are all self appointed

This post meanders all over the place so indulge
me.


I got on the web and the first day back in 1995 I learned I was a
'Webmaster.' WOW! Now what the hell was a webmaster? Damn, not in the
dictionary. It sounded important. Sounded very authoritative. Like the captain
of a ship but much more important. So golly gee, first day and there is so much
opportunity on the net that I am like an 'Admiral' since day one. Whoo Hoo!! Who
knew?

Now I could write and go down two very different paths right
now. I can continue on this trend and that would bring you to 'Webmastering.com'
that I wrote in 1999 and still stands undisturbed or I can continue on with the title of this piece about us
all being self appointed.

Ok, we all became self appointed. I became the self appointed
'Domain King'. Ron Jackson became the self appointed 'Historian.' Monte Cahn became the self appointed 'Web radio host' of Domain Masters. The list goes on and on and on. Point is, we saw a void and need and just filled it. We defined the job, defined the agenda, defined the reason to do it and defined the goal. We came at different points in time and just did whatever. I decided my duties were to spread the word of the power and
profitability of domain names and why they would become so valuable and so
important to the future of commerce and personal relationships even tho it would hurt my own efforts in buying domains
in the future. I decided that raising awareness and values was a more important
job. I went to early business forums and shared my vision on
domain names. I approached the real estate industry first. Within a relatively short time they would throw my ass out the
door, delete my posts and banish me from ever coming back. They even kicked my friend Serge out and deleted his posts. He challenged their minds and they were not up to the challenge.


But eventually one group stopped laughing long enough to
listen. And when I bought Porno.com for $42k (Something unheard of then) they
actually stopped and listened. Mainly they listened because they thought I had lost my mind. The BRUTAL TRUTH was that I PROVED to this elite
group of early pioneers that MY TRAFFIC coming from MY DOMAINS via type in
traffic was outperforming their traffic by over 100X. You heard me right. Matter
of fact, early in the game I actually thought my calculator was broken. While
others were earning 1/10 of one penny per visitor, I was earning over 10 cents
per click per visitor and more. More than 100x the norm. It was easily verified thru
independent sponsors who saw what I saw and could no longer just ignore this
startling difference. Something Main Street and Corporate America has yet to
figure out and we are over a decade into this grand experiment. A decade later
and MOST folks have yet to learn what the adult industry learned in 1997. I can
only shake my head when I think about the BILLIONS in business these folks
pissed away by not learning the difference between targeted traffic and crappy worthless
traffic. Not knowing the difference between a website that could close a sale and one that could not. They pay the same for traffic and development and don't even know the difference!!! Keep putting
water in your gas tanks and paying for it and expect your business to take off.
LAUGHABLE!!

I love economic slowdowns. I love recessions. This event
FORCES people to actually work for a living. Look for new answers to old
problems. Look for new ways. ASK QUESTIONS! Stop and listen to the answer. They experiment. They work like their jobs are at stake because they are. As domainers with targeted traffic we are right on
their path once they figure out where their path is. So pull up a comfortable chair and enjoy the wait. They are on their way.

Smart business increases their ad budgets during tough times
to keep their numbers as close to level as possible. Dumb businesses pull back
and that is the kiss of death. I can prove it. Let's look at Audi. They came out
with some super sports car last year and advertised the hell out of it. I saw it
in every magazine and every ad they ran. Ok cool. So I call the dealer. I could
feel the salesman's chest boast out even on the phone as he told me there is a 3
year wait to get one. He thought he was so cool. Little did he know what a moron
he was. He was so happy that he could not make a sale even tho he had a live one
on the line. So Audi set him up to look foolish and I took the opportunity to
laugh at him for sounding so proud about not having what I wanted to buy and
therefore made no money and thus wasted everybody's time. Why advertise when you
can't deliver or are at 100% capacity? It's the wrong time. You advertise NOW
when things are tough so you can stay afloat. btw, the funny part of the story
was a few weeks later they called me back and told me they could get me one. By
that time I had bought 2 other cars and my appetite for the Audi was gone. Great
job Audi! Almost as good as another time when I asked a salesman there what 0-60
was and was told  'Nobody really cares about 0-60 anymore.' I laughed in his
face, told him his cars must be slow not to answer that after he knew every
other stat and spec and walked out.

Told you I would meander on this post. Ok back to the
subject.

On the other hand, let's stay on this. The question is whether
Main Street and Corporate America will pull back on their advertising or are
they bold enough to increase it? Stay tuned because you will see before your
very eyes which folks GET IT and which folks don't. Their online sales are all increasing. Their brick and mortar sales are flat lining and will soon be in decline. The expenses of running B&M business is going to be devastating. Cost online is much lower with worldwide penetration. When will they finally shift the BULK of their resources online? If not now, it will never be as you will watch some big boys just topple over.
Have a GREAT day!
Rick Schwartz.


It’s the”C” not the”I”

Morning
folks!!


Since
I sold ireport.com to CNN I hear this chatter about 'I' domains. The
'I' part of the equation in the domain name is a very small part of
the equation. The power the 'I' had in this particular domain is
extremely powerful. But as the title suggests, it is not about the
'I' domain. It is about the 'C' in
'Circumstance.' Circumstance is what drove this deal and drives
almost all deals.


Now
let me peal this back a bit. CNN got the deal of the century. $750k was a
bargain. The value was close to $7.5M and I am going to explain why I plan to
get $7.5M as a result of this deal. First of all this may become the highest
profile domain to be sold and used in a very long time. CNN may advertise
ireport.com hundreds of times a day throughout the world. And each time any of
us hear that, it will remind the industry and then eventually the world about
this deal. The BARGAIN this deal will become in the eyes of the market. That
alone will raise values across the board as folks begin to realize what power a
domain, a great domain, can have to set you apart from the competition.


The
race is on. Will Fox News fight back and get uReport.com? The one thing that is
a SURE BET, is WHEN that domain eventually sells to Fox, and it WILL sell to
them at some point, it will sell at a rate much higher than $750k
.That deal
will likely never be known when it does happen, but there is no question that
the table is set for a multimillion dollar sale. Do you hear that Seattle? Bases are loaded. So that is really the next piece of the puzzle to follow. This has
the power to blow the lid off the domain industry. Two titans at WAR and it is
their domain names that will be their leading Generals.
For the love of  Pete, they pay $750k for a picture of Britney's panties!This domain may actually define both networks for the next generation. Comparable? You decide. This may illustrate to the markets and business world that a domain name value is a drop in the bucket when compared to other income producing assets. The very future of ALL business is wrapped up in their domain names. It has been that way for a dozen years and it will be a recession or a crash in 2008 that forces all business to re-evaluate how they do business and why I would make such statements. How many other industries and
titans will fight similar battles? The value of this sale will be pointed to as
another mile marker not only in the domain industry but in business because of what is still yet to
unfold. The best is yet to come.


Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz


iReport.com and Domain Valuations

Good Morning Folks!!


I would love to give the details of the sale but by contract I am not allowed.
However if you read my past posts, the secrets of how I approach this are all
there. NOW maybe the industry will REJECT the 'X' factor. This was
CRAP introduced by the VC guys that has NOTHING TO DO WITH DOMAINS!!!!
If domainers want to be FOOLS and keep selling for 'X', I will keep
saying that domainers are leaving a FORTUNE on the table and don’t understand
the anatomy of a great domain name. Maybe this will blow the lid off all the
appraisals services. They are ALL WORTHLESS. Absolutely worthless. Not a single
one has a clue. Not a one and SCAM is usually the first thing that comes to
mind when I read a worthless appraisal that somebody actually paid for.


The
ireport.com sale shows that conventional valuations are fundamentally flawed as
they do not take into account the biggest part of what makes a domain name valuable.
When I say something like this, appraisers tilt their head like the RCA dog.
They react like I am talking a different language. So this is why I give no
credence to ANY domain appraisal service. They are ALL worthless and many are
slanted depending on their circumstance while others are pure rubbish. If
someone waives an appraisal in my face they get a laugh right back in their
face. It is like wearing a billboard that says, “I am a clueless rookie.”


To
come to a true value it would have to be by committee and that committee would
have to be made up of successful domainers as well as others. Without
discussing all the possible attributes of a domain name it is impossible to
come up with a value. Those buying and selling based on 'X' are
playing somebody else's game. Don't be foolish enough to swallow their silly
valuations. I have said this over and over for year after year and maybe since
some of these players have disappeared as fast as they appeared, maybe now
folks will take notice. Like I said, I have blog posts about it right here for
anyone willing to dig!


Now
I admit that ireport.com was a perfect storm. All the elements were in place
for a pretty big payday. However what the following years will show is this “Perfect
storm” will be repeated by me and others many times.


While
I can't go into the details of the negotiations, what I can say is it took
several months and the main sticking point at contract time was whether this
sale would be made public. Something for me that was non-negotiable. I would
have walked from the sale if I could not report and publicize it. If DNJournal
could not include it in their updates. The deals never reported would make
everyone here, think differently about their assets. Still, folks are more
focused on traffic and stats and 'X' than they are on what makes a
domain great and have value and have great value to others before that event
even materializes..


$750k
is a stepping stone. What it does is take what we do from theory to reality.
When we look back at this sale in 10 years, people will say it was cheap and
should have been sold for 10x that number. It's a stepping stone because
sometime soon it will be unusual for any good domain to sell for under 7
figures. Then 8 figures. We are entering the period of time where we will see
some significant domain sales. During this slow down or recession, it will be
the DOMAIN INDUSTRY that is the shining light on the hill. A place where great
fortunes can and will be made. Times like this fuel emerging growth and we are
more than emerging. We are busting out when everyone else is bailing out. We
are positioned very well and this rocky financial environment we are in will
benefit the domain industry more than any of us could do alone or collectively.


Have a GREAT day!
Rick
Schwartz


 


Good morning from the HIGH SEAS

Myship_2I
am on the 8th day of
a 9 day cruise. Most cabins on a ship are about 200sq. ft. The cabin I am in is
5300 sq. ft. Complete with private swimming pool, sauna and jacuzzi. The butler
brings breakfast at 8:30 and the concierge takes care of all the daily
arrangements. This is the 2nd time in the last 12 months I have taken the same
cruise and same suite. It just doesn't get much better.


 



I like this lifestyle
and I will do what I can do to protect it. Next week or the week after DNJournal
will report on a domain sale I inked yesterday. The domain sold for $750,000 to
the end user. A domain I registered in 1997. So not a bad return. $70 or $100
turns into $750k. in 10 years. More details to follow. What I can say is this
will be a VERY high profile domain and used by a true pioneer of the Internet.
Their site up before I even bought my first domain name in 1995.


 



So things are
great.....BUT.....


 



There are flaws and
abuses on the Internet. In lawmakers zeal to fix things there will be some tiny
provision somewhere that will change how you do business. It WILL happen. It's
not an 'If.' Domainers think they are immune to losing everything. All they have
to do is put gold in their pocket but don't have resources allocated to
protecting and preserving that gold. I see 2008 as the last chance domainers
will have a say in their own industry. The under toe that will come this year
will remove all cockyness from anyone who reads this.


 


Sure, it's easy to
laugh and ignore. It's much harder to educate yourselves about threats on
multiple fronts. If domainers are not represented at each of those fronts, they
forfeit and whatever the aggressor wants, the aggressor will get.

What is the state of
the industry? Read what the prominent folks of the
industry
have to say. Also you can see my  extended thoughts on the middle and wnd of page3.
The VERY LEAST anyone
reading this should do is get the ICA newsletter and see
the attack we are under. Better yet, join the ICA and protect your assets. Help
expose abuses. The latest by netsol. If you don't know what is going on....are
you really even in the domain industry?


 


Have a GREAT
day!
Rick Schwartz


As the World Turns….

Morning folks!!


The earth will revolve
today but it just may seem a little faster than most days. 2008 is about to
start with a BANG. A very BIG bang. What will it all mean? Stay tuned. This is a biggie! We are going to start the year off right.


Rick Schwartz
UPDATE!!!


Moniker and Oversee Join Forces!!


http://www.moniker.com/oversee/index.jsp




What did we accomplish in 2007?

Forbes1


As I have stated before, 2007 was a challenge. But when you
meet the challenges you come out stronger than ever. For some that is an unusual
year. For me, it is business as usual. The more they throw at me the better I am
going to be. T.R.A.F.F.I.C. marched into New York City in the fall and Steve Forbes
shared an evening with us in Florida. Terry Jones got our attention in New York
and John Reese gave us some great tips in Las Vegas. I am still trying to get my
head around the importance of having Steve Forbes come to TRAFFIC. I have
listened to the CD several times but it is packed with so much info and detail
and history, that iit is taking me a lot of time to figure it all out. That
night will pay dividends to the domain industry for years to come. Anyway, here
are some links to stories, articles, and interviews from 2007. There are more,
but these are the ones I could locate. There are just so many stories to tell in the domain industry. These are mine and I look forward to reading others.



Associated Cities
Review of TRAFFIC NEW YORK 2007

 



Wrap up
Article TRAFFIC EAST MIAMI 2007


 


Associated Cities
Review of TRAFFIC EAST MIAMI 2007


5 Questions with Elliot


http://www.elliotsblog.com/index.php/2007/10/31/5-with-rick-schwartz-ceo-traffic/


 



Domisfera.com Deep Intervierw


http://www.domisfera.com/en/the-deep-interview-of-domisfera-with-rick-schwartz/


 




Most Influential domainers


http://logistiklabs.blogspot.com/2007/12/20-most-influential-people-in-domain.html





The big Bruhah


http://www.dnjournal.com/archive/lowdown/2007/dailyposts/11-12-07.htm


 



My take on domain appraisals on Sahar's Blog


http://www.conceptualist.com/2007/05/25/rick-schwartz-on-domain-appraisals/


 


 



Deep Interview and video with Brett Tabke


http://www.webmasterworld.com/domain_names/3382077.htm




A little youtube fun at the Cowboys.com party


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30O-JJnuYIg



Special guest post on Frank Shilling's blog


http://frankschilling.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/03/special_guest_p.html




 


 


 




 






Where do you want to go this morning?

Each morning many of us
have a ritual we do. We check emails, stats, bank balances, stock portfolios, news,
blogs, scores, auctions, drops, domains,etc. We have our daily morning list of sites we go to. So today
I would like you folks to be the poster. Where do you go? What sites do you
visit? What does your morning look like when you open the lid of your computer
in the morning or move your mouse and start your day? 


Have a GREAT day!
Rick Schwartz


PS: 12 years ago TODAY, a morning like this, I registered my first domain name. A single act that changed my life and destiny. You just never know which seed you plant TODAY will change your life tomorrow.





The Slowest Day No More

Morning folks!!
This post was 12 years in the making. 1996 was my first
Christmas online in which I had an online business earning significant revenue.
From 1996 to 2006 Christmas Day was the single slowest day of the year. It wasn’t
even close. Earnings and traffic down as much as 75%. I would be lucky to earn
one SLOW days take on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day combined. Well 2007 is
much different. Christmas Day traffic was down by about 20% and earnings were
better than TEN other days in the month of December. This is simply
amazing and LONG overdue. It means surfers are surfing and retailers are
selling things. Did advertisers finally figure out that with every store closed
in the real world that people will shop online and many of the gifts are cash
or gift cards that are burning a hole in people's pockets? That online is
the ONLY game in town on Christmas Day no matter where in the world you are?



There is a LOT of
misinformation out there. For example, here is one nobody will agree with
because folks just listen and repeat and don't observe for themselves. TODAY is
the single busiest retail day of the year. The day after Christmas is the big
one. Don't listen to the baloney that it isn't. It is. The difference between
today and the day after Thanksgiving for example is today they are buyers. The
day after Thanksgiving they are shopping. Looking. Deciding. Today, it is ALL
about sales, returns, exchanges and spending those gift cards and cash. TODAY
is the busiest retail day of the year. Just go to a Target and look how many
extra registers are open today that were not open during the Christmas shopping
season. Nobody will agree because the experts tell you HOG WASH and people
repeat what they hear. There is no question in MY mind that TODAY, the day
after Christmas is the busiest day. NONE! Now let me give one caveat. While it
IS the BUSIEST day of the year, it may or may not be the day they ring up the
most sales. Because of returns and exchanges that number is likely to be
watered down. However I would venture to say that more total TRANSACTIONS are
conducted today and that is why you will see big retailers set up extra
registers and have a full staff. Going to the mall today? Going mid afternoon?
As you vehemently disagree with me give it a second chance when you start looking
for a parking space.



So the BIG news,
Christmas Day is no longer the slowest day of the year and someday may actually
being one of the busiest. Can you spell CAPTIVE AUDIENCE? I started my last
post with the following sentence that I am going to use to close this post
because I can’t wait to see it happen. AGAIN.  “
In the first few weeks of the
year we will hear how the experts are surprised about how strong online
spending was. The experts are really no experts at all or they would have
predicted what is coming not reacting to it.”



Have a GREAT day!
Rick Schwartz



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