Can the New gTLD’s Have a Domino Collapse? You Betcha! I’ll Show you How.

Morning Folks!!

Can the New gTLD's Have a Domino Collapse? That is a very provocative question but does not delegitimize me asking it? At what point does the weight of other extensions that have not done well weigh so much on what is coming that the entire thing collapses like 1000 dominos lined up. When you add the weight of dozens of .mobi's and .travels. When you add the weight of all the gTLD's that have already been canceled. When you add the weight that even a GREAT gTLD could be tainted by the loss of the others.

bigstock-Black-Dominoes-Falling-Down-In-1081634

Does it matter if .mobi has 1,000,000 domain registrations? Does that make it a better investment or is it still a loser as it stands today? Who cares if they make money at the registry level? They are no factor in domain investing or even domain flipping. It has NOTHING to do with YOUR LIFE!

And I don't mean to pick on .mobi but that is without doubt the clearest example so far. With great fanfare. They had their moment in the sun.They make $$$ with the sunrise and all, but face it, domain investors got caught holding the bag. And that is ok. That is what speculation is about. But other extensions DO have a more active aftermarket. .TV, .INFO, .ME. So there are lessons to be learned.

So in the event that the first 100 new extensions came to market and fell flat, what exactly would that spell for the other 900? It does not help their efforts it hinders their efforts. Even a winner could be weighed down by the sinking of others. And some are gonna sink right to the bottom.

So in that event, I would think some would be forced to even further delay a new extension rollout as they could go down with the tide. Let me be clear, I am not saying this will happen. But I do see it as ONE of the possibilities. Who goes FIRST could play a huge part in how this all unfolds. What if the first 5 rollouts are DOGS?

Food for thought. Never discount things that are possible until that threshold has been passed. .Mobi did not make the cut. Tebow did not make the cut. Both were surrounded by excitement and all the rest. But at the end of the day, the road has yet to lead either where they "Intended" to go. Tebow is still alive, .mobi is not alive as a domain investor extension today. So who cares how many are registered. They are not being used commercially and that is the KEY to value. No billboards, no TV, No Radio, no ADVERTISING DOLLARS at the end-user level. That's the KEY to growth. Not a bunch if domain investors buying TULIPS! If you don't know the Tulip Story, go LEARN IT right now!! RIGHT NOW. I sure have talked about it enough over the years. THAT is the most likely scenario at best.

Need, want desire. If nobody needs, wants or desires an extension and the few they sell are to investors looking for the 2nd coming and few if any are used commercially in advertising, how exactly does it get the oxygen to survive? Especially for investors. In OUR LIFETIME!?

.Com took off for a reason. The value of .com took off for a reason. How much did end users spend promoting .mobi last year?? THAT is where the value STARTS!

Reasons are missing in this new equation. They are just missing. And when you try to copy a recipe and the main ingredients are missing, what exactly do you have?

990 or more extensions could be very disappointed with their results regardless of their aspiring intentions. Some may not matter because with many new gTLD's then collectively they can operate and make money. But that is a different business than we are in.

.com did not happen overnight even with millions of registrations and many advertising the extension and little competition. A success on a new gTLD could take 10-20 years or more to manifest itself. Some folks think they can't plant a seed in the morning and have a tree in the evening. Maybe. 3 real or FAKE stories like that and the sheep will come a running.

But not to consider these things? Come on! This is MORE than possible given the evidence we already have. So those who have not thought about this scenario.....are they REALLY prepared? My question being in sales and marketing for so long is why would you not EXPECT it to happen? So if you don't expect something that is a possibility and that possibility arises and you are caught SURPRISED.......what happens then?

Rick Schwartz

New gTLD’s “Contributing Nothing” According to Dyson. Adding “Confusion” According to Others!

Morning Folks!!

Talk about a SCATHING article about the new gTLD's. this baby is a blockbuster!!! How many of these "Weddings" are going to end up in death as they die on the vine? Or, maybe open up shop and be served with 100 or 1000 different lawsuits claiming this or that and as a corporation you are compelled to answer each and every one of them? How do you spell "Can of worms"? Well here is a batch jumping out of a can just as we are getting to the altar.

Mike Berkens uncovered a WHALE of a story by the NY Times yesterday and I am compelled to post about it here as well. It is stunning. It is a rebuke of what is to come. The Clusterf*ck as I have been describing it since day one. But Clusterf*ck sounds mild when Ester Dyson says it is "contributing nothing" and others use the keyword CONFUSION! Gee where have I heard that word before. Confusion. Let me think. Maybe 100 posts of mine!

"The proliferation of these suffixes seems fraught for both consumers and companies. It has the potential to confuse online searchers: .car or .cars? baby.toys or toys.baby? It could also prompt companies, at great expense, to register bunches of new brand sites defensively as a way to pre-empt cybersquatters, spoofers and fraudsters."


Some technology veterans and trademark experts view the domain expansion as largely unnecessary.


“You are creating a business, like derivatives on Wall Street, that has no value,” says Esther Dyson, a technology investor who served as the founding chairwoman of Icann. “You can charge people for it, but you are contributing nothing to the happiness of humanity.”


She went on to say,  “You are creating a business, like derivatives on Wall Street, that has no value,”.


THESE ARE VERY STRONG WORDS COMING OUT. Taking a stand like this in public is not an easy thing to do. She is courageous for saying them and it would be even more courageous to heed them.


And perhaps the biggest warning comes from  professor, Jacqueline Lipton, from University of Houston Law Center.


“The Internet address oversight body may not have considered deeply enough the larger linguistic and societal ramifications of setting off a land grab for new virtual real estate like .love or .home “It’s a private body, that is dabbling in this very delicate balance of commerce and expression online that is fraught with pitfalls.”


The entire article is here

What are the Top 10 New gTLD’s?

Morning folks!!

So with 1900 new extensions coming to market which will be the top 10 Domain Investor Extensions?

Once you discount the .Brands, you will have maybe 1200-1500  generic extensions. Which are your favorite? Which has you LOL? Which ones do you think can eventually breakout over the next TWENTY years? Post your list.

Let's assume 10 could potentially break out of the 1200-1500 generics. 10 winners and a lot of losers. Guys holding the bag and there ain't much in the bag. But in with all the crap are a few gems. Which ones? Even a die-hard .com guy like me knows there may be ONE worth looking at. One? I would love to have an opportunity to repeat. I don't see it happening. But I would not fight it if it did. I would embrace it. But first I need to see 3 elements that are NATURAL. Need, Want, Desire. Now everyone goes blank the moment I mention these 3 words. Scares the daylights out of them.

Personally.....Need, Want, Desire is THE radio test for me. But folks are scared of those words when they NEED to embrace those words. You can instill.....Need, Want, Desire. That is what SALES is all about. But it NEEDS a basis. So what 10 would fit in the Need, Want, Desire category? What 5? I will continue to state that without the domain investment community most of them will die on the vine. But some will bear fruit. Which ones?

So if you are one that has a new extension coming, this is the time to start telling us the real benefits we will see as an investor or an end user and what they plan to do to educate folks about something few will even know about for YEARS. And we should make a note of those that shun domainers as they will eventually rethink things but will be way too late. There are some HUGE marketing pitfalls to come complicated by hundreds of other .whatevers that want to clean tour clock and out you out of business.

I really can't wait to see this fiasco. The likes of which we have NEVER seen in history of mankind. An invented need to invent $$$$. How many of them will open their doors and sell NOTHING other than friends and family? But for the HUNDREDS that sell squat, there will be a few that market right and create a Need, Want and Desire.

And Branding?? Well branding happens all by itself. Register 10 million names and you are branded. Mass usage is the best and purest branding. When folks come with their own Need, Want, Desire and it is your product or service they Need, Want, Desire. That is branding.

So who will break out? I have not even studied the list. It is overwhelming. Which ones have the best chance? Which ones have no chance?

At the end of the day it will be up to 3rd parties to embrace what is coming. But it will be the domain community that truly picks the winners.

Rick Schwartz

 

Distinguish or Isolate? That it the gTLD Question to Answer!

Morning Folks!!

I really think the BIG gamble comes down to whether the new gTLD's will Distinguish a BRAND or isolate that BRAND. And that question MOSTLY applies to .BRANDS. Now that gamble for them is not huge and companies will always find inventive ways to use a  .Apple or a  .Dell. But many of the brands will keep their .BRAND on a shelf for potential future use or even internal use.

So they can distinguish themselves as .Apple but there could be a downside as well as it could isolate them. But I don't think so. I like .BRAND. I just have very mixed reservations about .WHATEVER as this is the real .CRAP shoot. Plus we already have some substantial evidence as far as success and values when compared to .com. The confusion factor. They are FORCED to switch back to .com as you can read here!

This is NOT opinion. This is EVIDENCE and as business people we MUST know the difference between opinion, sales and propaganda or it is costly if not dire.

When ANY company loses 35%-61% of their marketing efforts on CONFUSION, they can either change course QUICKLY or go out of business. BOTH of these companies did just that. They had to read the numbers and watch their eyes bleed!

Personally I think the biggest winners will be .TV, .ME, and one or two other extensions that had MANY years to take off with much less competition. That is an opinion. But there is also growing evidence. .TV is a natural but after some 15 years it is just now gaining some traction. But .TV means something. ME means something as we live in a world of Me's.

So from an investing standpoint it is quite different and I HOPE you have YOUR 20 year plan.

But whether we see great successes or great failures this is the point where things move in a very big way. These new gTLD's will provide the fuel I see to go where I believe this ship is going. That is an opinion. But it is based in FACTS and EVIDENCE. It is based on watching things very closely for a very long time. It is based on history. And our job is to just keep score and see what picture it paints. It won't paint that picture in 2013. But by the end of next year we will have a BOATLOAD of new information. Be skeptical. Most will be hype and deals done with friends and family or ones where no money exchanges hands.

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

Turn Over in Your Grave. Rick on Board with gTLD’s!!

Morning Folks!!


I am very excited about an emerging niche. For the first time I am excited about gTLD domains. Very excited. I can see it clearly now. But not in the form of .whatever. I have yet to be convinced or won over yet. But I always keep an open mind.


What I am excited about is gTLDForum.com at no reserve and gTLD.org with a $1000 reserve. Both will be up for auction at TRAFFIC. What I think interesting is some folks don't think these domains have any value. Ok fine, we are all entitled to see what we see. The market will speak.


These are instant businesses. Pure and simple. A new multi-billion dollar business is coming whether it works or whether it collapses. They will still be investing and spending BILLIONS. You can make a fortune with gTLD without ever investing in a .whatever. The Last General Market before they hit the hills with their picks and shovels.


So far the ONLY thing that has excited me is the opportunity in gTLD is gtld domain names ending in .com. An emerging niche. Selling picks and shovels to the new miners. History repeats itself. Here are a couple of clear opportunities to duplicate what has already been done.


Most will disagree and they are all entitled to do that. Let's measure the degree of disagreement 5 years down the road. That is the difference in viewpoint and how far into the future we look.


Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz


My First in Depth Take on The New gTLD’s. What Will it do to DotCom? I Have the Proof!

Morning Folks!!


I would not like to be Rob Hall today. This was going to be a comment over at TheDomains.com but decided it was worthy of a stand alone post.


After reading the comments, Why is everyone so positive on something (either way) that there is no way to know how it will unfold?


“So why wouldn’t you sell your generic .com’s and use the money to fund new gTLD’s”


Let me remind Rob Hall that 'dotcom' is the single most used word in the world today. Unless somebody develops something new and better and more useful, that will likely not change in most of our lifetimes. And where did he make the leap that you would have to SELL your dotcoms to fund a new gTLD?? What the hell does one have to do with the other? His logic is flawed in this respect. However he does make a good point as he asks Mike about Stuff.com but agan LOGIC is missing as I will explain.


“So would you rather own Stuff.com or .Stuff for $185K?


“If you owned the TLD don’t you think you could sell 10,000 registrations a year at $10 or make $100K a year.”


Maybe you would sell 50,000 registrations a year and now make $500,000 a year and that would be an annuity in perpetuity.


“So why wouldn’t you sell your generic .com’s and use the money to fund new gTLD’s”


This is a different mindset because it is not as a 'Domain Investment' it is as a business venture. But he fails to ask the next LOGICAL question. Would .stuff want stuff.com? And the answer is you bet your sweet ass they want and NEED the domain. But it does not matter if Mike sells Stuff.com and you can ask the folks at Anything.com who has XXX.com. Worth less???? Are you in your right mind? Worth less???


That said it does not mean there won't be 'Opportunity'. But don't confuse opportunist with opportunity. There may be plenty of both. So while I don't agree with Rob Hall on domainers selling their dotcoms, there are other things he says that may have some validity. So let's pick it apart a bit without the knee jerk and emotional reaction. Maybe a few FACTS.
Opportunity comes in many forms and lots of people make millions on failures.
Relying on the domain investor community to buy into 1000 different extensions is not going to happen. However it will draw those that missed the last domain rush into wasting most of their money on something that won't be a success for 20 years if ever. Most will fail out of the gate on their own weight and lack of knowledge.


It's all about the advertising and who does that advertising. CNN branded 'Dotcom'. As I can remember, they were the first. All day, All night, when it meant nothing to 99% of folks. So without that type of distribution, it is going to be a very uphill battle for 99% of all new extensions.


Wishful thinking won't work on either side. Hard facts and how it unfolds will.
Humans are very adaptable when they see a direct benefit to themselves. So never say never. But also realize how long it takes to change a foundation. You have to eat TODAY. Some of these new 'Roads' may not be traveled in our lifetime. They are building interstates but if they go nowhere and lead to nothing it won't matter.


The bottom line is it always comes down to the idea. We will never run out of domains, but we sometimes run out of ideas that just don't copy what already is.
The internet is like LIFE and will and has become destination based.


As a consumer I could care less about the extension. I just want what I need and want. Problem is when the average person tells others, the confusion with dotcom is HUGE!


For example. There is a big thing going on about being 'Topless' for women. So they have a site at 'GoTopless.ORG. Would you like to know how much traffic the .ORG is LEAKING?? Right now to the tune of 2000 visitors a DAY as I own GoTopless.COM.
Now I like .org. I believe it is the #2 extension and have stated that for about a decade now. BUT, folks MUST deal with this issue or they are FOOLS. Period. How do you ignore that??
Now if you ran a business and you lost 2000 customers a day having something other than .COM maybe an intelligent businessman would figure out it is costing them a lot of lost business. And if I were their competitor, I would be eating their lunch and owning THEIR customers. That leak can sink a ship. A person could make a living off a 'Leak'. Can make a FORTUNE off a LEAK.
So get .whatever and the dotcom version goes up 10 fold or 100 fold by ACCIDENT! I just proved it. The dot com owner is YOUR MASTER! Want to be freed of your MASTER?? That takes $$$$$$ to buy the dot com.


ANYONE that thinks a company can get a .whatever and not have the dot com and not lose is just closing their eyes to PROOF! If a guy on Madison Ave gets a .whatever for his client without the .com, he screwed over his client BIG TIME! PERIOD!


But with all that said, there will be BILLIONS of dollars thrown at .whatever and that alone is something that should give everyone reading this a little pause. Not just a knee jerk reaction. Just remember those BILLIONS will ALL need the dotcom counerpart.


I am THRILLED that most in mainstream will disagree with me. Most are looking for the second coming and 1 or 2 out of 1000 just might happen. THEIR success is OUR success. Not the other way around.


Be Loyal to what you believe and what matters. This will bring a tear or more to your eyes and make you pause for just a moment. Nothing to do with domains, everything to do with life.


Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz


Domain Investors are Used and Abused!! ICANN NEEDS to be FULLY Investigated!


Morning Folks!!



Hey Domain investors, aren’t you sick of getting used and abused? Whether it's ICANN as Konstantinos wrote about yesterday or is registries, registrars, auction houses, Mechanical Valuations, PPC companies, Google, Yahoo or anyone else, DOMAIN INVESTORS will always get the shaft. Ya know why? Because they can, and we aren't organized. Like I have said there is NO DOMAIN INDUSTRY! There are just thousands of soloist renegades that can't see past today. They party like drunken sailors regardless of the leaks on the ship and the threat at hand.



You know what the worst part is?? We are the ones that enriched these people. We are the ones that helped grow their companies and gave them the power they have. We are the ones that have been taken advantage of at every stage.



We are not the bad guys. We are not cybersquatters. We are the capitalists that create wealth and opportunity for us and others. We are the people that invest our time energy and money into something selfish, but that’s what opportunity is all about. But this selfish opportunity is very widespread. It's a worldwide opportunity. Why don’t they look at a person in Nigeria that had perhaps no chance at a decent life and he’s making his fortune on the Internet. With domain names. With many domain names. It’s a passport out of the wilderness and into the mainstream. Why would anyone mess with that??



The Internet has probably lifted more people out of poverty than every governmental program in history combined!! It's so obvious. Why mess with that??



The Internet and domain names have been the greatest equalizer the world has ever known. Never before in world history have so many benefited so quickly. As bad as things are there has never been more opportunity worldwide than there is at this very moment. NEVER!!



As domain investors we created an ecosystem that many companies have made a lot of money with. I believe without what we did as investors and risk takers the entire picture would have looked quite a bit different than it is now. We made people very rich!!



Now, unfortunately, there’s a lot of bad apples in what we do that go over the line and abuse the privilege of what they have. Like I have said many times, some people can be put in a diamond mine full of diamonds for free and they’re still steal something or do something that’s not right or otherwise abuse something that shouldn’t be abused.



I am proud to be a domain investor. I’ve never ever been ashamed of it for a moment. I did something that was taught to me all of my life: become successful. And many of us have found that same success. And of course in time they would want to take that success away from us. They did that in American history, it’s nothing new. They've been doing it in Europe for centuries. Governments seize land that it wants. That's valuable.



Of course this will be happening with domains I saw that. the day I got online. I’m just shocked and surprised that it took a quarter of a century. Thank goodness for that!



But that’s also why I’ve been very conservative with domaining. To me, it's like "Musical Chairs". The music will eventually stop. Those that are overextended will be destroyed.



See what happens, you are flying along and then SMACK! You are dead meat. You owe a lot of $$. You had a fantastic year. But then after the income stops, the tax man cometh. Many have been destroyed cuz the good year was followed by a terrible year and they can never dig out of that tax debt and what they owe on cars, mortgages and toys.



So expect to get it up the arse as time goes by and prepare. We did have a lawsuit at one time that may have prevented this fiasco, but it was not supported and eventually we had to give in. That's what happens when an industry has no organization and has no purpose. And it's even worse when there is no industry to fight back and make their case.



The price of pigeon shit farming is about to go up so maybe time to focus on prime domains. Remember, 10 really good domains make you a domain investor. 1000 silly names, will make you go broke and you are a pigeon shit farmer. The only good thing, farmers will ALL be washed away!



I got into this when domains were $100 a pop. If they go back to $100 so be it! All I know is for $10 you can be worldwide in a moment and change your destiny forever! It's the greatest bargain the world has ever known. It's the greatest opportunity the world has ever known. It's just amazing!



BUT!



In my STRONG opinion, ICANN is a corrupt racketeering organization. It's a crime syndicate that advances interests of a few insiders at the expense of the masses and the general good. They have abused their power and their role.



Racketeering refers to crimes committed through extortion or coercion. A racketeer attempts to obtain money or property from another person, usually through intimidation or force. The term is typically associated with organized crime. The law defines 35 different offenses that constitute racketeering in the U.S.



I think ICANN and each member should be investigated FULLY and I would go back to the origins of the new gTLD program. The demolition derby of corruption. ICANN leaders profited from their conflicts of interest, and they never did it for the purpose they were chartered to do. They abused their leadership roles and profited PERSONALLY many millions of dollars. To me, that is corruption at the worst!



Is ICANN Corrupt??? Many think so! Count me in that camp!



Rick Schwartz


Historic Grove Park Inn Selected Host Hotel for 1st Annual Asheville Professional Domain Investors Meetup & Family Outing!!


Morning Folks!!



I just love when a plan comes together. I have envisioned a domain get together in Asheville for many years. Long before Asheville was a destination. Few ever heard of the place 15-20 years ago. Not an easy place to get to and back then very difficult. Today much easier and a few airlines fly non-stop right into the city.



The Grove Park Inn is the epitome of Asheville. This 106-year-old property is the only place I ever considered holding such an event. I have dreamed about it for years. I guarantee you will fall in love with this place and Asheville at the same moment. But what makes Asheville so very special is how creative the town and the people are. When you see what they have created, and it's all "Home-grown" I think it will help us develop our own creations. This is my "Field of Dreams" and I hope to make it yours as well.



The things that I am still taken aback with when I come to Asheville are George Washington Vanderbilt of the famous Vanderbilt family who built the largest privately owned home in the USA (you can tour the 175,000 sq. ft. home and the entire 8000-acre property) and the fact that Asheville has an incredibly large and cutting edge medical community. It's all homegrown and unique. Just like domaining.



The Historic Grove Park Inn. Host Hotel for Rick's 1st Annual Asheville Professional Domain Investors Meet-up & Family Outing August 1st-3rd 2019.


So, I am in the process of scheduling our Meet-up Starting the afternoon of Thursday, August 1st. Then followed by a "Working Luncheon" on Friday the 2nd. Friday night we will party in Asheville and Saturday we will end with a brunch and a fun-filled day of activities. That's the plan. It's not in stone. It's a framework until I know how many and how long folks want to stay.



As for the hotel, if you book a room direct today or at Hotels.com, it is $479. I will secure a group rate of at least $100 less per night. There are other hotels to stay in town and around starting at $150-$200. I have to personally guarantee 60 room nights to start, but the rate will only be available for 14 days once the hotel link is active. I will announce on the blog when the time comes.



August is their #1 month of the year. So if you are TRULY serious about attending, then booking early is critical. I have to limit attendance. I have no choice. I am not going to be on the hook for hundreds of thousands of dollars as I have in the past. This is a dutch-treat event. There is no financial motive. We all pay our own way. But I still have to give personal guarantees and deposits. The rooms alone are $25,000 plus taxes, and the food is another $10 grand. That's just at this venue.



So you can help me take an initial head count of who would stay at the hotel and how many nights you would stay there. I am not out to make money on a get-together nor do I even want to touch the money. I want all payments made directly to the hotel. A truly self-funded event.



I am out for us to make history with domains. And this time it will stay focused on domains investors and furthering OUR SELF-INTERESTS not the agenda of others. It's my vision, and I hope you share this experience with me and others. But whatever your decision is, it must be made soon, and if you decide later on, I am going to have to say no, and I really don't want to do that. It's strictly first come, first served.



I am trying to keep this event private, small and compact. I am not looking for a job so I have a number in mind that is good for the hotel and works for me. If we exceed that number it becomes an ordeal and that is not what "This Years" meet-up is about. Bigger isn't always better. Qualified is! Also, attendees of the first meet-up have first refusal rights on the next one. As charter members, you should be recognized for acting early. Isn't that what REAL BUSINESS is about? What domaining is about? Recognizing the opportunity and seizing opportunity EARLY. Action is the main difference between those that have found success investing in domains compared to those still looking for it.



So, if you are sick of the noise, sick of the slick, sick of swallowing crap for the benefit of others, then it's time to go back to the future when it all began. Let's start anew armed with over 20 years of new information and progress. Let's each walk away with one or more new projects. We are in the mountains, maybe my famous 18-wheeler story will make more sense there because it was in those mountains of Asheville where it takes place!



This is a show by Domain Investors for Domain Investors. It's not a show where all these companies get stage time to push their wares or new gTLD's and domains, and domainers are pushed aside. If we have any sponsors at all (and it looks like we will), it will be to help us not sell us. And also lower the financial burden on attendees. I want to get it as close to free as possible! On the other hand, you will have expenses for lodging and travel. But if all goes well, the food and entertainment will be an incredible bargain as will the deals, relationships and progress made.



I often talk about our "friends" in the domain business and how we should be suspect. However, relationships are different. They don't start with an agenda or a motive. They don't start with one trying to sell the other whatever the hell they have. It's not an opportunity to do face spam. lol, those are NOT friends. They may be colleagues, they may be partners, they may be a lot of things, but friendship is not always one of them. Relationships start with like-minded professionals breaking bread and talking about need, want, desire and common points, or goals and see if anything dovetails. You compare findings.



If you look at my history and look at the history of Domain Investors, you will see that since before 2000 and my original chat board, I have brought folks together. Most friends and relationships in domaining started on my chat boards or at T.R.A.F.F.I.C. Whatever some think of me, I have a history of changing lives for the better, and I'm not quite done.



So now that you know more details, you can email me directly. My email addy is on the left side of the page. As you can see with my original announcement and comments that follow, qualified folks are coming! I have a simple goal inspired by George Washington Vanderbilt, Let's make history!



Rick Schwartz


What does “Studying History” have to do with Domain Investing? Here’s the PERFECT Example!!

Afternoon Folks!!

Many of you know Danny Pryor. Yesterday he left a comment on another post. But it deserves its own post along with my reply. It's not often you get to study history when it comes to the domain industry. Schwartz vs Schilling is now 5 years old. Don't you want to know the ending? It was a mystery back then, but much of the story is written today.

See what the landscpe looks like 5 years later. Nobody got it all right. What was said then and how it dovetails after you fast forward 5 years is priceless. It will make you money because it will calibrate all the things you have ever heard into a new form and formula.

Some of the comments will be absolutely mind blowing when you listen to it today. You will laugh your ass off.  Are you brave enough to go back and listen or are you an ostrich? Scared of history? You may hear what you want to hear. On both sides. Maybe you won't. Probably cut both ways. But if you are not brave enough to watch, you may leave some important knowledge out there that might have helped you starting right now.

Monte talking about .Tickets is kind of funny looking back. https://ntldstats.com/tld/tickets

Frank has some whoppers. I have my own.

Really, some of this stuff is hysterical looking back.

Danny said: "Perhaps it’s time to revisit a couple old videos, those original “debates” on the new gTLDs, as they were rolling out in 2013. This is TRAFFIC at the Ritz Carlton in Fort Lauderdale, by the way, so it’s nearly five full years since this event, which was dubbed “gTLD Madness”. Part I: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYug6bPnDHU and Part Deux: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izsxteuqhv8. Enjoy! ;)"

My Reply: "Danny, I don’t think those invested in GTLD’s have the stomach to watch. See what was said THEN, and see how it dovetails with NOW! That my friends is how you STUDY history and don’t RUN and HIDE from history!!!"

Let’s see if ANY watch and see how many things they predicted actually unfolded.

Domains with value are like Gas stations. Gas Stations go on intersections. Intersections with traffic. They don't put many gas stations where there are no people in the middle of a swamp of an unknow town with no population.

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

The Rick Schwartz Equation

Morning Folks!!

Go brew a pot of coffee, this is going to take a few minutes. What started as a simple equation blossomed into all types of adventures and mis-steps and examples in real-time that absolutely support my equation. An equation that may be all but lost in the clutter of events that just had great timing and so here we are. I think the word "Clusterf*ck" is just going to be more spot on with every passing day. I thought it would happen in very slow motion, but it is accelerating even faster than I would have imagined and I suggest there will be popcorn to replace the coffee by the end of this post.

We all see what we see and we all know what we know.  I come to conclusions early based on certain elements that fit in my personal equation. This equation filters out CRAP, HYPE and NOISE. It filters out the losers FIRST and spotlights the winners NEXT. That makes my job easier and pisses off the ones that don't win and/or don't count as much. Those folks have a tougher job to convince me and other people whether domainers or end users to buy into their vision.

Each new gTLD has or SHOULD HAVE a separate vision.  Is that not a reasonable assumption? I have learned many do not as stunning as it sounds. So is it my fault for asking about the "Vision" thing?

I have been writing this blog post for over 2 weeks now and I have been deciding whether to post it or not. Meanwhile I just keep working on it and whether it sees the light of day will just depend on who knows what. But events just keep unfolding that dovetail with what I have been saying.

I have written extensively about the new gTLD's EARLY to be on record and to be REAL and that showed a vivid difference in how and WHEN  I view the world compared to many others. And in my view of the world, nothing happens until a sale is made and I did my best to explain that. And while people throw around invisible sales numbers without actually ever making a sale, well, that is a MAJOR red flag to me. I know how hard sales is. I know how hard sustaining sales is. I know how hard growing sales is. I also know the difference between a solid sale and a weak sale. A sale that will survive and a sale that will collapse or end up being a loss.

I see things early for a reason and it is based on an equation.

I have gotten several emails about Moniker.com and their problems this week and folks want me to write about it. Well I did, 3 YEARS ago when I transferred all my domains out. It was not my first post on the subject as you will see. The Moniker mess happened 3 YEARS ago but the train wreck happened last week. Folks had AMPLE opportunity to heed the warnings. I still have about 14 domains there. Mostly .tel. But thousands were moved away. 

There will be a lot of elbows flying in gTLD land as we have seen with the firestorm of last week with Negari and Network Solutions, that just continues and now the plot thickens as Berryhill, Corwin, Negari and the ICA join others in the industry for a circular firing squad.

The skirmishes will intensify and broaden as there are a lot of competing interests. There are a lot of ponies in this horse race and the rails on either side are not enough to contain them. So you are going to see a vivid example of some raw nerves between other gTLD operators develop. You can't see this coming? Really?? REALLY????

Why is this a sure bet???

SALES BABY! SALES! They NEED sales. They are drowning without sales. They are choking for cash as it is in many cases. That is THEIR reality.

Not only that, but If you play in a game you set up with no rules, then don't complain when somebody breaks the rules or extends the boundary lines. Where does HYPE turn the corner and become DECEPTION? There are the nuances that are in play here. The debate is wide and the fallout is still in progress. The answers are murky. Deal with it. It's just part of the clusterf*ck that will play out in time.

I also understand that many bloggers are under a lot of pressure from different camps to write positive stories about them or gTLD's in general. Some have just about lost their entire credibility. Even Howard is pressuring me not to post things I am about to say. But I could give a rats ass about getting another sponsor or not. I won't sell my soul for that. If they can't figure it out, so be it. I will say what I BELIEVE and not what my FRIENDS want me to say.

Hats off to those like Konstantinos Zournas, MIke Berkens, Ron Jackson,  Kevin Murphy and others that report whatever facts they can find and I know for a fact that the pressure these bloggers are under is IMMENSE. And they are getting it from both sides. 

Sales have to be created and WE and everyone else has a RIGHT and a DUTY as well as an obligation to be skeptical if you are a serious investor.  You should EXPECT to have you feet held to the fire. Especially since we already had prior evidence that only a fool would ignore of how previous tld's have fared in our short history.

How do you create a sale?

You start with NEED, WANT and DESIRE. And in our case you can add SUPPLY and DEMAND. Other variables as well as you are about to see. And there are even more obstacles than I am going to discuss that is why I wrote so many posts coming at things from various ways and all of them had huge pitfalls. These are compounded obstacles and I am not sure any can survive them all. Especially when they are blind to them.

That said......

How do you create sales when you don't start with NEED, WANT and DESIRE from the right party and the supply is unlimited and the demand is almost non-existent and self-made??? And keep in mind, over 80% of all registrations are by domainers and the Registry's themselves or closely held companies. aka, Bag of smoke. Some say 90%. They say 33% and that is just laughable.

How do folks KNOW they need something they don't even know exists to begin with? This is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to exponential. Many icebergs because everyone at least gets hungry. Of course business may suck if you are a hamburger stand setting up shop at a vegetarian convention and you have no veggie burgers.

Hold on to your horses, it will all make sense soon to anyone that can have a warped thinking process like me.

This is NOT bashing gTLD's. It may as well be zoombibie stands. The RESULT would be almost the same.  What's a "Zoombibie stand"? A Zoombibie stand is as foreign and unknown to you as gTLD's are to the end-user.  Got that? Do you need one??? How long have you lived without a zoombibie?? Really?? Whose job is it to sell you that Zoombibie that you don't know about and probably could care less about? What color is yours? What happens when a competitor comes in and they have to SPLIT the zoombibie market?? Are only distributors buying zoombibies and they can't resell to the end-user?

The commodity you have does not matter. Coffee shops, hamburger stands. Lemonade stands, pizza joints. You name it. The thing with gTLD's, they are exponentially harder and few want to take the time to truly examine why.

The keyword is CREATE.

Zoombibie has to CREATE sales!

But to create sales, there has to be a DEMAND to begin with.

And you do that with REASONS.
REASONS are the SEEDS of PERSUASION.

(Reasons have to be valid. In sales, when you get caught in a lie, game over)

But first you have to CIRCULATE.

And you have to know how big your AUDIENCE is.

So that you can TARGET them properly.

Assuming there is DEMAND

We know there is DEMAND by several groups. The Registry, the Registrar and the speculative domainer. The speculative domainer is not the customer of the Registry as they have made pretty clear. But the same Registry is depending on the market makers who are the speculative domainers to make things happen. Sounds like a HUGE disconnect to me and many are starting to pay the price for that wrong-minded thinking process.


How big is the zoombibie audience? You still don't know what a zoombibie is? This isn't your grandfathers zoombibie. This is a much better and bigger zoombibie that will allow you to do more things. Just don't ask about what specific things they are. Way too deep.

Sorry for the caps in this post but this is more of an equation and a theory than paragraphs. And you also have to know that THEY (the consumer in any form they come in) are in control of all of their destiny's. If they don't eat the smelly fish or the rotten meat, the restaurant closes and goes out of business. PERIOD! No matter the hype.


Nobody on this planet woke up this morning looking for a zoombibie. But you NEED it because I said so. Isn't that a good reason?? 


Today alone we say .Berlin start giving their extension away for FREE! When you can't sell something, you give it away. They more than doubled their 48,000 registrations in less than 24 hours. EXPECT others to follow suit. That is definitely going to screw up the marketing plans of other registries that are already choking for cash. It gets UGLY from here on out folks. Can't see that one either?? REALLY??

 

So if you subscribe to this quasi-equation, and I do, then many will be able to see what I see and why I don't take MOST of the gTLDs seriously at this point in time.  That does not mean I am right and that does not mean I can't be PERSUADED.  But my job is not to persuade myself. That's THEIR job and they need many reasons that are VALID to get there. Tough questions are survived by straight answers and that is how you tell a solid and good product or service. Then I might buy a zoombibie. Right now, I can live without it. 


This just means that I have a method behind my handicapping that has served me well for decades and I am just sharing my mental process of one of the ways I might reach a conclusion or form an opinion. But that does not mean I can not be persuaded. But that only comes with solid information and benefits. A VISION that holds up against reality and scrutiny. Imagine a car salesman being afraid to answer questions about the vehicle he is selling. He wants to make a quick buck and you are looking for long-term reliable transportation. Not exactly a win-win. Once he lies about one thing, you can only do one thing. LEAVE! And that is exactly what most folks would do.


Someone wins, someone loses. If you invest unwisely LIKE SO MANY DO, you are going to be at the wrong end of that equation. As long as you are prepared and EXPECT to lose 100%, then you are okay. No worries.  But expect to lose 100% TIMES however many years you keep each domain name.


Folks want to hear what they want and they want to ignore what they want. Folks are afraid to state the obvious or even truly examine both sides to get to a proper balance without forcing the wanted outcome. To me .ceo,.rich and .horse are extensions that are in real danger of dying on the vine. They will be joined by many others. How can I be so certain??? Please just study the equation. It is a roadmap. Look at the STALLED daily registrations. .Rich has had THREE registrations in the last FIVE WEEKS! STUDY the numbers, they are pathetic at best. This is their debut. Demand does not look very high and a new broom sweeps clean.


Just days before the original launch in January I posted this on my blog about .Club and how they were the ones doing it right and now you can look back and see how it DOVETAILED with REALITY! It appears they have the most human placed registrations.


Figuring it out and getting it RIGHT EARLY counts and it is the equation above that makes picking winners and losers EASIER! Cutting to the chase has value. Knowing the answer before the question is asked has value. Great value in some cases. And I am not conceding that the most registrations = the most valuable gTLD or the one to invest in if any. But this is the yard stick many seem to be using for the sake of discussion. So it is our only measuring stick at the moment since there is little else to point to. Just keep this yardstick in mind as well. .mobi as a Registry is a total success. .Mobi as an Investment is a total failure. Can't folks LEARN and understand that equation?? I could give a rats ass about the success of a Registry. We are talking about investing. Until you separate the two, good luck going broke!


With 1400 new extensions those that think they will all survive and then also be meaningful are either not dealing with reality or have not been in business long enough to understand how business works. How sheer numbers work. So if they were to LOGICALLY look at the 1400, and right now we have about 125 LIVE, they can already see which ones are in DANGER of either dying on the vine, never getting any recognition or traction or just not being meaningful or relevant at all. PigeonShit gTLD's for a lack of a better phrase. This is the first heat of TEN segments to get to that 1400 number. I think I clearly picked the winner of this phase. Until I see the CONSUMER actually EMBRACE these new extensions, it's all inside baseball. The consumer hold all the wildcards.  There are several layers of consumers. But I am talking about end users and the actual person on the street.


So the first thing to do logically is remove the DEAD HORSES OFF THE TRACK!


Did you watch the race on Saturday? Imagine that race with 1400 horses in the SAME gate and the LOGICAL first question would be how many would be TRAMPLED in the STAMPEDE getting out of the gate!?? How many other horses will trip on the dead horses and also go down? Just logical questions. The ultimate question is who will win the race? I guess if you were LOGICAL you would say to yourself that I may not be able to pick the winner right away but if I pick the top 10 horses and isolate them I have a much better chance. Most bet on one horse and MOST lost. Even the gtld tracker tracks the top 10 and all the "Others" are lumped into one category. "other". Why?? Who came in 10th in the race n Saturday? Nobody knows and nobody cares.


And that means that 1390 gTLD's will be NAGS  Or maybe it will be 1300. Not a huge difference. Most will be meaningless is the only point I am trying to make. MOST. The majority. So that means they did not die on the vine, they are just as irrelevant as .aero and .travel are today along with many more that nobody wants to really invest in. How many times do you have to see the same SAD movie and still hope for a HAPPY ENDING?


How many want to bet on California Chrome to win the Belmont and the Triple Crown today? Place your bets! He LOST! Sorry. We all rooted for him to win. But he LOST. REALITY! See that is not being against gTLD's folks, that's called not being stupid and dealing with reality. We can do the what ifs all day long. But he lost. Yes, he lost because of a GASH inflicted by another horse and we will see that with gTLD's as well.  So if a gash did the damage to change history imagine what 1000 dead horses will do to change it.


Sorry folks. There is no happy ending to this movie. Get your Kleenex out!


And then all this wraps right back around to:

How do you create NEED, WANT and DESIRE?

The keyword is CREATE.

And you do that with REASONS and BENEFITS.

REASONS are the SEEDS of PERSUASION.

BENEFITS are what is important to your customer not what is important to the seller.

And you make the sale with a LOGICAL argument to support your vision.


What grade would you like to give the marketing so far folks? Invisible marketing seems to be on top of that heap don't ya think? If you don't buy into my zoombibie, you are a moron and you are old school and you are an idiot. lol. GREAT marketing!


Efficacythe ability to produce a desired or intended result. I don't see that as a widespread ability when it comes to gTLD's.  Do you??


Besides all these GIVEN headwinds, it is my belief that many of these guys already missed their window of opportunity to market their extensions. As even Michael Berkens has said many times, these are the weaker extensions for the most part. So that means when they DID have their day in the sun they were incapable of taking advantage of THEIR "Unique Opportunity in time". The train is gone for many of them already. I hear they did not have the money to promote and all the rest. Whose fault is that? Whose lack of vision was that? Whose going to be holding the bag when it is all said and done?


Sure there were ICANN delays. Well in business you have to expect things like that and be prepared for it.


So that TRAIN leads DIRECTLY to consolidation. They can't see that one either?? Really? REALLY????


See in my silly view of the world I think it is unreasonable to see why .ceo would be a good investment because no coherent argument can be made for the viability and a REASON to PARK money there. And when the registry comes out with "Their" reasons, they don't dovetail with reality. Everyone laughs and dismisses.


Now I don't mean to pick on .ceo all the time but it is the most glaring example next to .Rich which is just too funny to even spend any time on. And I think .Horse has no better chance of being important and worthy to INVEST in as betting TODAY than California Chrome will win the Triple Crown last Saturday. In any test you usually look and set aside the top and bottom scores. .Web for me is the top score on the chart and .Rich is the bottom score on the chart for me.Actually the bottom is CRAMMED with losers yet to be declared DEAD ON THE VINE.


And let me also state for the record that number if registrations is not the yard stick for measuring success of ANY gTLD.


CONTENT is the key to the survival of any extension. And in this cases, BETTER content is going to be EXPECTED.  So when you look at this onion you can peel it so many different ways and into different conversations. Just be prepared to hold on to those as long as I have to hold on to .mobi. I have great keywords. Big deal!


And there are so many obstacles now after that. Consumer acceptance is always the key to any success. Beta was better. Did not matter. Ask Sony. So these obstacles and facts can even contradict each other. And my main point is the path forward is not straight it is splintered and the pitfalls immense. And as we have seen and as I have said for over a year now, one bad deed with one spills over to all. Anyone doubt that one now?? We have just seen the beginning of this show and the abuses. I am sure a site will pop up that will chronicle all the abuses that are taking place. I have already lost count. It WILL get MUCH worse.



I always started with my parents. They were my test cases throughout most of my life. They represented Mid-America and how the majority would react to any given new thing. Their input was more valuable than anyone else. So I do miss that part of my equation.



You can see once you talk about gTLD's one thing leads to another and the whole thing just has not been well thought out and with 1200 MORE to go, the ABUSE and the HYPE has not even started. I have written over a dozen posts just in regards to the horse race and how important and how hard it will be to pick the winners at THIS stage. And what happens to these "Weak" extensions when the strong ones like .web come to life?


We are an intelligent group and we get to ask tough questions and if folks don't like it because they have no answers, that is their choice. I say the numbers are pathetic. Let me define it with this. The day .Web comes to market (and I am not touting .web, but it is just the Odds on Favorite) is the day you will see pathetic defined.  That is an extension we will be counting by the millions and they will LIKELY have more registrations in the first few HOURS than all the gTLD's in the first few MONTHS. Just a FACT waiting to be BORN. Can't see it from here?? Really?? But you can see the value of gTLD's in 10-20 years?? Sorry, that dog won't hunt with me. Don't talk about 10-20 years when some folks doing the talking can't see 10-20 hours, days, weeks or months in front of them.


Is there money to be made in the new gTLD's by domain investors? YES.  But Registry's making money on YOU have nothing to do with your gamble/investment. Chances are more money will be lost 100 times over than made. We can only predict and see how things unfold. But ignoring and not examining all sides of an issue because of peer pressure...........really? Investors NEED to be skeptical regardless of the WANTS and DESIRES of others.


As I said yesterday and will repeat often: "NO DOMAIN INVESTOR has ANY OBLIGATION to support ANY new gTLD whatsoever, so don't buy into that nonsense. On the other hand the gTLD's have an obligation to treat domain investors a lot better than they have.  They need us not the other way around.


We had a superhighway come to be in the early 1990's. It was well thought out and had already been around for a very long time for military use. It had to work right. They built a super-duper worldwide interstate roadway system that changed the world. Now we have over a thousand interstates coming out and many have no real destination, direction or even a plan. If you go down one of those, you are GUARANTEED to run out of gas and you will have no money left to buy anymore. So as long as you are prepared and can afford to lose 100% or more of your investment, you are fine and good to go. But picking the winners is still the single biggest hurdle and only 10% of the extensions are now out. Multiply all the nonsense we have seen by 10 fold and you will see this will not be an easy road. A road that can only get harder to navigate and there are consequences most would just like to ignore and not talk about. Sorry, as investors we DO get to talk about it and your job is to address those concerns if you can.  And if you can't, just get out-of-the-way.


All that said, I will be looking and searching for successes and when I find one, I may place a bet or two. Time tells all and the shakeout we will see is absolutely, 1000% forseeable.  Maybe waiting until the dust settles is not the worst strategy as you will avoid being sucked in by the noise and hype. That way you get to sit back and enjoy the show. I DO NOT see gtld's as a threat. I have seen them as an opportunity from the get go. Brings a lot of eye balls our way. But on the way to opportunity, there is going to be a lots of events. Hype, noise, crashes, clusterf*cks and a lot of dead horses and it will eventually be known as SURVIVOR! Popcorn anyone?


And there is a flaw in this Rick Schwartz equation in this case. There seems to be no end to the pitfalls, obstacles and the dividing lines that are coming. Lots of folks entering the crossfire. Welcome to my world fellas.......better have a thick skin.



Rick Schwartz