The Rick Schwartz Domain Name and Traffic Blog: RicksBlog.com – Home of The Domain King®

Morning Folks!!

One of the epic product failures in my lifetime was when Coke introduced "New Coke" back in 1985. That was a few years after the digital watch was brought to market by Pulsar. That watch kept better time than anything on the market and was supposed to replace all those expensive watches and make them obsolete. Tell that to Christy's when they sell those multi million dollar Patek's at auction today.

But getting back to the big flop "New Coke". The public embraced it at first and then rejected it. At first people accepted it. Then there was a backlash. Coca-Cola was forced to bring back the original. They did not like it, they did not buy it. Coke was forced to introduce "Coke Classic" to shore things up.

And the supermarkets had to go along with it because that was what the consumer wanted. Of course there are always some on the fringe that wanted New Coke. So they kept making it until it was renamed and  then eventually discontinued.

So when Coca-Cola goes into those supermarkets who only have a certain amount of room devoted to soda. What to do? Well if you are Coca-Cola, you might try to just move some of your competitors right off the shelf and out the door. Coca-Cola now had more shelf space. And as New Coke came to market, it changed things.

The point is nobody can speak for the consumer except the consumer. He is judge and jury and everything else you hear is wishful thinking and hot air. That's the true BS. Nobody knows what will happen but those with skin in the game only focus on one side of the equation and ignore the other side. It is my firm belief that anyone ignoring important information on either side lessens their chance of success by a large degree. Folks that look at both sides and are more prepared increase their chance of success. But neither group trumps the consumer.

And as you can see in the case of "New Coke", the revolt took 3 weeks to materialize.

2014 marks the year that domains get more shelf space. No question about that. I think the classic domain will expand. I think the new domains will come out with great fanfare and when reality hits, then the things shift in a very big and noticeable way.

The only real question for me is who will be the likely winners and let me eliminate the losers. And just like I was not the first in domaining, I came into the game years after, I think the best play is years after. Let's see who remains on that shelf.

As for time frame to see how it all shakes out. Could be 1-3 months or 1-3 years because end users will all likely have to go down Overstock Blvd. When they see the amount extra that their ad dollars are costing them, that my friends will be the true moment of decision. And the registry will not be at the table when that decision is made. Ben Franklin and a lot of bean counters will.

Now the following was posted at TheDomains.com as a comment. Again, empirical evidence vs wishful and hopeful thinking. They are not the same.

"Here is a partial list of corporations that built free-standing websites on .Mobi. Some probably have been abandoned by now."

See how many of these companies you have heard of:
DietCoke.mobi
BMW.mobi
ESPN.mobi
Heineken.mobi
Fox.mobi
Marriott.mobi
DHL.mobi
Disney.mobi
Time.mobi
Ferrari.mobi
DolceGabbana.mobi
BofA.mobi
UniversalPictures.mobi
Cisco.mobi
FordCA.mobi
Iberia.mobi
ING.mobi
Hertz.mobi
MSN.mobi
NBA.mobi
Maxim.mobi
JaguarXF.mobi
Purina.mobi
Weather.mobi (Weather Channel)
VolvoCars.mobi
TheTimes.mobi
Xbox.mobi
Fidelity.mobi
FoxNews.mobi
Lufthansa.mobi
HSBCfrance.mobi
Zagat.mobi
Barclays.mobi
Castrol.mobi
WWF.mobi (World Wildlife Fund)
Deutsche-Bank.mobi
BenettonPress.mobi
axa.mobi
nypost.mobi
polo.mobi
BusinessWeek.mobi
Rolls-Royce.mobi
GreenPeace.mobi

You don't see a common thread here? When it comes to .brands I see a path forward. But .brand as I have also started may be internal. So if .Apple were to use it externally, what word would they use left of the dot that would be meaningful and have a really nice ring to it? Do any really sound better than apple.com? Buy.Apple? Home.Apple? Sweet.Apple? iPhone.Apple?, Mac.Apple? But what is the homepage?? The main entrance? Odds are it is going to be Apple.com regardless if they have .apple or even use .apple. Whoever was in charge had a duty to secure .apple. But that is his one and only duty. Secure it. Whether it will ever be used will not be up to whoever secured it.

Look, bitcoin is a huge success. But if you bought it 2 weeks ago you may have lost 50% of your value. So that's the danger on a huge success. What is the danger on a huge failure?

Look, I am very open-minded but I am not BLIND! I am not STUPID! And I am keenly aware of the great loss a failure would look like. Why??? Because that is still the most likely outcome based on the evidence we already have and many would like you to ignore. You would have to be the singles biggest moron in  town to ignore evidence in lieu of a second-rate sales pitch.

And yeah, that angers a section of the industry. There will be a lot of domainers feeding at that trough. For now. But I have always said TIME is my best ally. My posts will stand or fall on their own.  But navigating this requires certain skepticism because of the past and current failures.

I am not sure how a gTLD with limited strings left of the dot can mount any type of meaningful success. I just can't wrap my head around that. I can't even see anyone taking them over when they fail. Why would they? It would be a liability not an asset.

I come at all this from so many different angles and then when you add that this new "Interstate Highway System" has no pre-planning. No zoning. No traffic lights. No speed limits. Some may have few or no exits.  Overpasses?? WTF is that?? Oh yeah, that is when the lawyers get involved and these lawyers won't be in the HallofShame.com. They will be doing their proper jobs for the companies they represent and they are going to be busy little bees. Confusion will be the keyword in their filings.

WIPO itself would likely not be able to take on the added cases in the size and form that it is today. However I do believe many will just go right to Federal Court.  Isn't this 100% forseeable from where you sit? If not, why not? To me it is a guarantee. It is as guaranteed the way I look at things as the green light will turn red in a minute or two. It's not an "If" it is a "When". It is a "How many". It is a "How Much". But not to assume this is coming? That would be what I would call sticking your head in the sand.

And as I have also said, it is the CONTENT or lack of it that will also be in play. There still needs to be a reason to go somewhere before you go. That is going to be several years away at best.

As for the premium pricing. I love it! I am not a sucker so I won't buy into any, but I love it. Some have already set themselves up for failure. Their own values are likely to go down not up. They want to duplicate .com but have ignored almost every play in the .com playbook. To me that is a red flag.  Many are trying to duplicate .co but I think .co has its own unique circumstance. That said the aftermarket is loaded with very low-priced .co's.  We all know you can't even GIVE a .mobi away. But the likely winner may be no gTLD at all. Could be .Net, .TV, .Info, .Me, which are now all on the radar. Is it possible that the new ones push the old ones to the top? You bet it is.

But today if you want REAL Coca-Cola in the USA you have to go to Costco or some supermarkets and make sure you get the ones marked "Bottled in Mexico".  See in Mexico they can still use sugar. Not in the USA. High Corn Fructose.

So if you want the "Real Thing"..........

All I can really say is it has to be meaningful, easy to communicate, logical, sound good, look good, and capture large and targeted audiences if they really intend to create need, want and desire outside of those looking for the second coming. I can't wait for general availability just to see what it looks like. What it looks like as the flippers go into action. 2014 won't be boring. It will take the first half year to ramp up, but after that, just enjoy the show.

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

.Sucks is not good for anyone. I think it exemplifies ICANN out of control.

So it broke yesterday by thedomains.com (my personal research department) that one registry bidding will try to extort as much as $25,000 a pop from companies to get their .sucks domain. This sucks! The other 2 bidders are also quite well-known.

I believe this will spin out of control. ICANN has to be THE most >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Sorry, can't even print it for adults to read. This has opened a can of worms and the anger is growing by the hour.  This is what happens when there is no guide lines and a money grab.

This is also the type thing that FORCES the U.S. Government to get involved. Congress will act once a few of their names are out there.

“Trademark Priority”

“Trademark Holders can reserve now and secure a price of $2,500 to avoid announced Sunrise pricing of $25,000.” “Trademark Priority registrations will take place BEFORE sunrise”

The Vox Populi Registry Inc. owned by Momentous Corporation, which is the only shareholder listed as owning at least 15% of the registry is opened to business. Momentous Corporation also owns Pool.com

The other two applicants for .Sucks are domain veteran Jay Westerdal’s company Top Level Spectrum, Inc. and Donuts."

So once I read that I registered a few sucks domains of my own:

MomentousSucks.com,  VoxPopuliSucks.com and RobHallSucks.com (Nothing personal Rob)

$25,000 each boys. (or highest bidder over $25,000)

It's one thing to get .sucks which we can debate. But when I hear Mike Berkens raise the level from "Extortion" to "Rape", then I would pay attention.

Seems there is still some time to leave ICANN some comments. So if you are a little hot under the collar, join in.

Go check out the comments over there and pitch in. This is serious, damaging and I think the voice of the industry should be raised. If not, we all live with the consequences and they are already going to be bad enough as it is.

Money grab?? New gTLDS?? Sorry, I think you ALL pay the price for this incredible act.

It's Horse.Shit of the worst magnitude and YOU ALL OWN IT! That's what I mean about a TRAIN WRECK! You are witnessing one! Just one. One of dozens and probably hundreds. Sorry, you rise as one and you can fall as one. That is possible because of how this has been handled.

And let's NEVER forget whose dream baby this all is. Who devised this entire system when at ICANN.

Whatever registry wins .sucks should be shunned and boycotted if they pull this .CRAP!

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

So Let's just say for a moment that these are the current top 20 extensions. I am sure I have it wrong because I included a couple that came to market with great fanfare. Remember the hype on .ws? "World Site". How are those babies doing today? How many of you invested in .ws and made money?

.com, .net, .org, .info, .biz, .mobi, .me, .tv, .us, .xxx, .co, .ca, .de, .co.uk, .eu, .cc, .in, .ws, .es, .mx

So let's further agree that with 900 horses in the race, it is not our job to pick 1-900 in the right order. At the track, it you get the top 2 right you get the daily double. If you get the first 3 right, you get the trifecta. Both pay very well because it is not easy to do.

So how many do you pick if you want to "Dabble"? I think most would agree that the top 10 are where one might one to focus their efforts IF they are going down this road. But even 20 as listed above. Are those 20 all meaningful to you?

Me? I would just worry about trying to pick the winner. Because if that is my focus, chances are they will be in the top 2 or 3 anyways.

So 900 horses at the gate. Many are just not thoroughbreds no matter how you slice it. I think we can agree on that as well.

So wouldn't a savvy investor at least start by eliminating those horses that have no chance of being in contention?

20 Slots in the race for the top 20 extensions. So instead of these guys making wild assumptions about a range of things that are not in their control, they might start by explaining why they are in the top 20. And if they are not in the top 20, why are they wasting our time? And money?

Their focus is out of focus.

With limited strings on some gTLD's does that make for a viable extension? Commercially viable? Investor viable? Long Term? Short Term?

If valid questions and points scare a gTLD, RUN!

These are all valid. These are all questions an investor SHOULD ask. Should know.

So anyone trying to put US on the spot is way off the mark! It is their job to convince us. It is not our job to be convinced. As an investor we would be morons not to be skeptical. They have to overcome the hurdle, not us. So ask them, "Why is your extension going to be 1 of the top 10?" I mean top 10  of the new ones and who knows where they will find their home in the overall list above and the hundreds beyond.

And this is a train. A falter by one could affect others. Missteps, misstatements, and even having JUST TODAY DomainIncite.com report an advertising shut down with 1 and 1, plus stupid and unresearched stories like this one from Chicago Grid that thedomains.com covered in today's news. Each with unknown and uncertain consequences. None that are good.

Rick Schwartz

Afternoon Folks,

So I decided that Pigeon sh*t is a term that should be reserved for low or no value single domains of current extensions to avoid any confusion in the future with their bigger cousins as they bring some large dung to market.

Limited quality gTLD's of low or no value  need some clarity, color and personality of their own. So from this day on I will refer to low or no value extensions as Horse.Shit. Not to be confused with their smaller dung cousin Pigeon Shit. But can be interchanged with the more popular usage of "Horse Shit" known as meaningless or insincere talk, action or nonsense.

I hope this clarification makes your lives simpler in the future.

And gives everyone a really good chuckle.

Now back to your regularly scheduled much more interesting life.

:-) Ho! Ho! Ho!

Rick Schwartz

P.S. My sincere apologies to those like Domain Gang that could have done a much better job rolling out this new terminology out.

Morning Folks!!

Let me state right now that the most over used term of the last couple of years is "Start-up". If I were a comedian, I could make a living off of the routine. Everyone uses the word "Startup" like that is their wonder drug to cure-all business woes. Startups? Really? Even tho 80% will fail before we even start the discussion. Let's hang our hats on that baby.

Let's say we all have some "Start ups" lingering around. What's the definition of a true startup and what is the definition of I have no job so let me hide behind the keyword startup? Yeah, that's it. I can become part of the startup franchise. Part of the club. I no longer have to call myself a consultant because that is a code word for some as in between jobs. My apologies to real consultants and startups.

But wouldn't we have to admit some of that is a pure bag of smoke?

So I believe that the single most over used word today is "Startup".

Then I think of all the gTLD's that have their hopes pinned on these startups. Startups with an 80% failure rate. Hardly a book of success. So can that 20% (and i think it is actually much higher given the nature of what I described above) support these new gTLD's?

But first you would logically have to ask the question of how many startups will use a new gTLD? What percentage? we have 900 different extensions all using this same answer as their way to success. But we know it is not 100%. The hurdles would include their local country codes as well as .com and all other existing extensions assuming they need one and don't just decide to use a Facebook page or other free alternative since I hear 3rd world countries are the other savior. But free is very powerful when you have nothing.

And speaking of nothing, many if not most of these shiny new premium gTLD's come with an outrageously high premium price for those poor startups they are so worried about and trying to help. So the double talk can only get louder and louder and will be multiplied by more and more voices. But don't confuse that for anything other than what it is.

So our job is to stick to numbers, facts, history and news. Their job is to present solid and meaningful arguments that support their position. (They have done a remarkable job so far) Not good. remarkable and I have many remarks to go.

We all want to make more money. But just like fish in the sea, I think it is important to distinguish between food and a lure. And if you don't know what that means little fishies, then swallow whatever shit you like. I won't get in your way. I will just alert you to not trip over the existing dead or meaningless carcases spread over the road.

So my prediction is in the next years, "Start-up" will be labeled the #1 most overused word.  I am sure many make a living off of startups. Some love startups. I guess except the ones that lost their shirts with startups. lol. Many of us have been there too.

So is a startup a non business? Usually you open a business that after your initial startup COSTS are paid you are making a profit. Today the startup may never even intend to make a business. Easier to sell investors on the blue sky concept than it is to actually sell customers on their products.

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!

It's simple, I look to the customer for all my answers.  The consumer is driving this train and the consumer decides when to stop. He decides to pull the wallet out or not. You can give the consumer snow skis for free but if he does not ski and does not want them and has no room for them, you won't be able to give it to him for free.

So I don't have all the answers, the consumer and the future does. The audience does. In this case you are both. And you are readers of RicksBlog.com and many of you are attendees at TRAFFIC and we are all domain investors for the most part. The answers come in one puzzle piece at a time.

So my questions are geared to answer the question at hand and in some cases answer a second question without ever asking it as the entire result draws an interesting picture for me in my mind. I'll do my best to share how I interpret the numbers. The numbers that count and are meaningful. Together we have come a very long way in filling in that puzzle and the answers below may give you a couple more that helps fill in the gaps.

Before we get to the main questions I asked some questions that could have gone either way and I am proud that you feel the way you do. Thank you.

Rick's Posts about gTLD's have been Fair and has brought up good points or Unfair and has brought up invalid points

I have worked hard to look at this from all angles. I know the noise will become overwhelming. I feel really good that after much invested time in this you see how objective I have tried to be and at the same time not allowing the obvious bullshit stand and go unanswered.

So 94% of you get it and understand my motives. Thank you!! 8 of you or 6% don't. So this is where i get to start filling in the gaps from some of the questions you will see below and it explains who might have a vested interest. That 6% or 8 people will be a variable you can use in some of the questions below.

You can start with this one:

Has Ricksblog.com been Beneficial to you?

There are my 8 friends again. But 95% of you say yes and anytime you run 95%, you are running good.

Just keep those 8 in mind as you read the results and perhaps revise with that in mind.

So the first question was very general and we had the most response. More than 300 of you chimed in.

How many gTLD's will you Buy Into?

From the actual voting I can draw two conclusions. First 71% said "None". It ran 77% all day. But the numbers changed a bit at night and I have an assumption on that. I think of full-time domainers that 77% number represent this group. However as it got later and later and later, the .whatevers gained ground. My assumption is that those with jobs and or are not yet full-time domainers, weekend warriors, are more apt to go toward the lure of the past trying to duplicate it. Again, that is my assumption. It does not mean I am right, it means I will use that basis for drawing certain conclusions until further info comes in that either proves or disproves it.

What would you give as an overall rating of the new gTLD extensions

So nobody, not one, thinks they are excellent. Well not until Sunday. It took 4 days to find one person to say yes.

Very few thought they were better than expected. Matter of fact it ran at  ZERO for the entire first day of this poll.

However a 2/3 majority of 66% thought they were worse than expected or pure pigeon shit. Now when you add the 13.5% for "I don't know" (it was 27% for I don't know so I split the vote for 13.5% for each side) the 66% goes to 79.5%.

These numbers have been very consistent throughout. 75% - 85% of domainers see little value and little reason to invest in or believe that values will go up.  At least 15%-25% that do. Of those the largest group of gTLD optimists seems to be those that came later into the business and those of course with a vested interest. If you were to exclude those with a "Vested interest" then I think you would see the numbers on each question would move another few points in favor of those that are more skeptical or give them no mind at all.

gTLD's are off to a good start, a bad start, I don't care

85% believe they are off to a bad start or don't even care. So who are the 15% that think they are off to a good start?And how many have a vested interest? It's not 0%. So that has to be factored in on all results.

Do you think gTLD's will Increase demand and value for dot-com or Lower demand and value for dot-com?

Now what is interesting here is we have that same 15% here. That greater that 0% is likely something to keep watching.

The next question is pure dollars and Cents.

If you are Planning to Invest in gTLD's, How much Money will be earmarked?

66% (113 of ya) said not a dime. Only 19 people, representing 11% of respondents were over $5000. And my friends of "8" could be the over $100k crowd?

The next question had the least responses.

If you are buying gTLD's I am buying to: Flip Immediately, Hold for 1 year and see what happens, Hold for 2 years and see what happens, Hold for 5 years and see what happens, Hold for 10 years and see what happens. Now let me finally give a tip of the hat for the "8".  Hold on for 10 years. That is probably the right approach.  Or flip immediately.

So let's see what happened so we can see what happens. I have 6 or 7 years into .mobi. Nothing happening there. Even tho they had the stage all to themselves and a great blue sky story to go with it. But that is what you do when you have extra funds. You invest. I mean gamble. I mean invest. Confused? So is the poll and everyone else. But oh save the day, in 3 years it will be CRYSTAL CLEAR.

I bought into .co, but as an investment, not my best pick. I bought into .xxx. I think we are at the 3 year test there. Let's see what's happening? I would gladly sell all my .xxx for 50% off. 75 off? They are prime. 1 word. Any takers?? I can use the tax loss before the 31st which will be my only tangible financial gain. I continue to dabble in several others. Can't say I have ever received an offer. Not even on my keyword.nets. So I would say the vast majority of those 70% in the middle, ME INCLUDED, will lose nearly 100% of their investments less the tax deduction.

How much of the TRAFFIC Agenda Should be Devoted to gTLD's? 

This is where I really use the data to determine the proper balance for what I personally do. So here is what I can extrapolate from the data above.  Here is how I would homogenize this info. Would I spend an entire day of TRAFFIC in gTLD's? No. Is one session enough? No. But I think about 85% would support 2 at this point in time and depending on the conditions in May, maybe 3 or 1.  And as you will see by the next result, focusing on gTLD's is tricky.

The more time TRAFFIC Devotes to gTLD's the more or less likely I will come to T.R.A.F.F.I.C.

Again, there is a clear majority. But the minority is significant and there is a happy balance. So to get to 90%, I think 2-3 is the sweet spot.

But this next question gave more input and may be a bit surprising for some. I think the numbers speak for themselves at 91%.

Will the main reason you will attend a trade show in 2014 be to meet the gTLD Registries?

So who are the 9? The "8" plus 1?

How many gTLD's will be successful?

You can see domain investors are open-minded. 75% believe they will enjoy some degree of success. The only mixed signal is 75% are also consistently skeptical. But also 8 of the 14 that are more than 50 or 100 likely have a vested interest. Just my assumption. But I look at the numbers with that factored in and not. But it certainly has significant impact on the outcome.

Are Bloggers views slanted because of gTLD advertisers?

This was the hardest question I asked. Was not sure I would even use it. Did not want to have my fellow bloggers mad at me. On the other hand I wanted to show and warn my fellow bloggers that they risk their own credibility if they are perceived as carrying the water for these folks. I even wrote an entire blog post about it but have chosen not to publish it. But as you will see below, I may be on to something. 95% see my point. 5% don't. Where are my other 2 friends? So this is nearly unanimous feeling out there. I don't think it can be ignored. I am not pointing the finger at anyone. However, I do suggest you ask your own readers. It may be the most important thing you do for your blog. Maybe not. But I do see something some should be concerned about.

Our job is to remain as objective as possible but let no propaganda serve as fact. North still has to be north and should not be bent to suit. Facts are a stubborn thing so the next poll makes me personally feel good and vindicated in what I have been doing. Trying to be as logical as I can which lead me to ask the question about how many would be successful. Pretty wide agreement there. Most are gonna be flops or at least meaningless in the eco system. 90% believe it will be from 0-50 successes. That interprets to some 900 failures. So the way my primitive mind works, the first thing you do is eliminate the 900 that are going nowhere so you might be able to focus on the 50 that some deem as having a potential. Now when you have 50 on the table it is much less confusing. Just remember that 900 little Titanics won't be helping the 50 that might still be floating. There will have to have been some damage done in the process. Some drag.

From the 50 you might want to put that in a few buckets and segregate them further by size and strength and brandability and all the rest. So eventually your bucket should have 0-10 extensions worthy of chasing. 90-1 odds. But you will have help. Might be right, might be wrong.

The concensus so far is .web has the most potential. It would be hard to put another .whatever in front. Anyone?? Let's figure out the 10 right here. There is so much room, that it hardly gives your secret plans away. Will any .whatever beat .web and who is #2?

Why .Web?

3 letters. 3 letters that mean and spell something. Seems like a perfect fit for those looking for a true alternative. But if you pick the biggest winner out of the 900, do you really have to go further or will you be consumed right here? How many of my readers have unlimited funds? I know I don't. If it is clear to me that .web is going to be the best of the worst, and I wanted to get into it, why would I choose another extension?

But maybe .shop, .blog, .App will become niches of some value. Maybe not great value. Some value. I have not studied the list at all. Just quickly browsed with few popping out at all.

I got a bit off track but the entire purpose of this is to figure it out and I am trying to do my process transparently so you understand how my insanity works. :-)

Which leads me to the path to follow or not:

In 2014 Rick Should: Continue to write about gTLD's, Stop writing about gTLD's, or Keep holding their feet to the fire?

88% of you think I should continue to post my thoughts on gTLD's. I then factor in that half of the 8 want me to stop. The other half may understand that my focus in this helps them. So that would bring it to just over 90%. And of the remaining, some just don't want me to waste my time and theirs on something they deem irrelevant. So I see that in this as well. But that group also understand more than any other why I have done this. Devoted well over a year on it. Methodically, objectively and sometimes emotionally. But from every angle that I could conceive all in the hunt to find answers unknown.

And what sticks in my mind the most is the few words that Lonnie Borck said that had the most impact in the gTLD debate. "They all have to sell something."  Their job is to convince you to buy into their vision. If you don't they lose. And there is nothing wrong with that.

My job is not to like or dislike the results of any poll question. It's to draw conclusions. Draw direction Understand my audience better. Take a pulse. Not discount any including the 8. Factor it all in and come to conclusions and then match them with reality as it begins to unfold.

One thing I can tell by the voting pattern is that veteran full time domainers are the most skeptical. Those that are not full time or are weekend warriors are the most likely to buy into the new extensions. And even with all the chatter, when it came to asking how much money folks would pull out, make sure to divide by 900.

I am disappointed that so much of the conversation has been hijacked by the outrageous claims some gTLDS are making and ALL gTLD's have to live with. None are playing from a defined sheet of music and the crossfire is likely to be brutal. The intersections deadly. The crashes unavoidable. My job as always is to see things first and see them before they become fact. When you do that your risk goes way down and that is how you turn the corner from a gamble to an investment.

And to T.R.A.F.F.I.C. sponsors and partners that are depending on gTLD's in 2014 and beyond:

My job is to ask the tough questions, state what I see as the real answers and level with my readers and attendees. If that pisses you off to the level of not coming to TRAFFIC, that only hurts your efforts. As I have said, "We have nothing to sell but help facilitate your ability to sell and do business."

But that does not buy or sway my opinions in any way, shape or form. I can't be bought. You can certainly come and argue your merits and show us where I am going wrong. But selling is something you will find out needs to be done in a way that brings in skeptics like me. Ya know why? You can start with the FACT that nearly 100% of the outside the domaining world audience might be somewhat if not fully skeptical. If you can't overcome me, you can't overcome them.

If you are selling something and you run away from those asking the hardest questions, then you ain't selling at all. Your job is to overcome obstacles not run and hide from them. You can laugh at shop owners on Las Olas but that's your customer. Deal with it. Stop laughing at them. You can think the vast majority of domainers are wrong, but you won't sway a single dollar or gain an ounce of credibility with outrageous claims that just might strangle your efforts.

This is like watching a train with 900 cars and no real railways under them. None are connected, but all have a certain degree of association and a mis-step by one or more can derail one or more. I would not throw caution out the window.

On record for the record. In a few years, we can all look back and see. Obviously these results are not scientific but they give an excellent pulse of things. Thanks for being part of it.

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

A fool and his money are soon and easily parted. I should know. I have been broke in my life.  Made money and pissed it away. I did not know the difference between an investment and a gamble.

Maybe I can share this lesson with my readers and how you can avoid this pitfall.

The .Kiwi folks are nice. So is the casino pitboss.

So today we all have the golden opportunity to buy hotels.kiwi for $125,000.

Ok, so let's agree that is one of the very best .kiwi domains. For an end user in New Zealand, it might be a good gamble. It may even be a good investment.

Let's say Hotels.com would be their best prospect.

Oh snap! They use the sub-domain to achieve their goal with a cost of? ZERO!

http://nz.hotels.com

Like I have said, if these companies want to look smart and have a real debate, talk about the FACTS. The facts are that these large companies have decided to build VERTICALLY not HORIZONTALLY! They are not wide, they are tall.

So if you want to see the future, look at dot-coms that can have sub domains. Problem with MANY gTLD's is they are not subdomainable from the get go and these extensions are 100% sub domaining without the .com. But when you can only use a handful of adjectives, nouns and verbs to describe your gTLD, you die on the vine. No question about it. Unless pigeon shit farmers come to your resuce.

Now the point of the post is if you have $125,000 you can buy this domain Hotels.kiwi. Is it a safe bet?

Let's see.....

Hotels.nz goes nowhere.

Hotels.mobi goes nowhere. How much is that bitch worth?

Hotels.biz goes nowhere. How much is that bitch worth?

Hotels.info goes nowhere. How much is that bitch worth?

You see where this is heading.

So will Hotels.com buy hotels.whatever x 1000? Probably not. But even if they did, the chances are they would just redirect to the dot-com. So how commercially meaningful is that??

So as a domain investor......that is an insane risk. For Hotels.com it may be the cost of doing business. Maybe not. Maybe they wait for some schmuck to buy it and WIPO them. A couple of those and this thing would deflate faster than the worst souffle!

It's a GAMBLE!

Now compare that with buying a $125,000 keyword.com. Even if you goof, even if it is not as good as you thought, don't you think the value is still probably 6 figures? So go look at dot-com domains asking about $200k and you will have your choice. Which is a safer investment?

The .Kiwi folks and the .Club folks are very legit. I never heard them say ridiculous things. Their credibility is intact. We can have a debate and a discussion. I don't see everything. I see what I see. They may add something of value.

So while those that don't care about their credibility and really don't give a rat's ass if you succeed or not as long as they succeed, will always run around and say silly things. But silly hurts them all. They come to market as one, times 1000, and they will leave the market one at a time x 990. Really sucky odds even for the biggest gamblers.

If you have millions, you can afford to gamble. If you don't can you afford a total loss? That is the ONLY question you need to ask.

I sold Casinos.mobi, Tickets.mobi, Escort.mobi for chump change. $122,000 loss.

Crusies.kiwi $83,000? I hope they find an end-user to buy it. But a domainer?? Really? I just see it as a gamble. I went to cruises.nz. It goes nowhere.

I own Cruises.mobi, want to buy it?? $83K? Do I hear $10,000? Do I hear $5000? What is the value today? This is real vs the bullshit. And .mobi registrations are rising. well over a million of them. I want $83k because why?? Based on what?

Look as .mobi is growing faster than most others. Explain that?

http://www.zfbot.com/zfbot_stats.png

And I don't mean to pick on .kiwi. But those are the numbers I have so far and when others release theirs, I will comment as well. Plus I happen to have a UNIQUE outlook by already owning my .whatever counterpart so I think I have great evidence that can hardly be just swept away and ignored.

My readers have lost millions. Let's face it. We made some, but when it came to anything other than dot-com, the majority of folks found very limited success.

And I bought into many .whatevers. Only the .me's have more value than what I paid. Every other extension and I have yet to see the dividends I once thought possible.

Who will beat .tel other than the top 5-10?

I always exempt ccTLD's because we know there is a place in the eco-system for them. I have never focused on them because I don't focus on local markets.

So I just can point to REAL examples nobody else really can or have not as yet vs the BS being spewed by the likes of some and reinforced by others with a monetary stake in things. NOISE! So be careful what you read these days. The lure of $$$ will have them sell their souls. Greed is a huge catalyst that was the foundation of all of this as I recall history and unless you are prepared to absorb a 100% loss, these are some of the poorest casinos.mobi I have seen. Most so far are incapable of having more than a few meaningful combinations. How does that translate to success?

At least with .kiwi it is much less restricted than some of the truly worthless extensions you will see. .

Kiwi has many or possibly unlimited left of the dot variables. .xyz does as well but I have yet to see the vision and then it still has to be sold and it still has to be adopted. Many others, MOST others, almost ALL others, have a handful of left of the dot variables and think they can become meaningful. They need to understand what a sub-domain is first and then become a registry. They are about to find out the hard way.

I would think the first rule may be only have 3 to 4 characters right of the dot. I think I would disqualify anything with more right from the get go at this point in time. That may be why .Web, .App, .Blog, .Shop has led the pack in pre-registrations.

Investment or Gamble? You decide. Not me. I can only decide for me and share with you. LIke I said, I have no issue with .Kiwi. They were/are a sponsor of TRAFFIC. I want them all there. All there to make their best case among a tough audience looking for real answers before they invest what could be large money. But that does not mean I can't comment and do it honestly. And I would never say anything I would not say directly to them and I am sure most folks know that by now.

I hope they all hit pay dirt. Their success is our success regardless of the stupid things some are saying and doing. But they need to get a grip and understand the real damage they are doing to themselves. Self inflicted. You can't even begin to wrap your heads around the private conversations. They are beginning to just dismiss one and all when it comes to gTLDS.

Given the choice, I would invest in IDN's first. They have gone through the years of pain that these others are ony just going to start. Most folks I know need to eat today. Pay bills and the mortgage today. They don't have unlimited funds. These extension ARE illiquid as Forbes stated. But not the dot-coms. The.mobi's maybe. The .whatevers almost certainly. Once the dust settles, you will see that weak extensions like .tel will survive and get stronger while all these other guys do their work.

The conversation in the boardroom will likely include all the other non dot-com extensions and of course the dot-com. But the chances of them choosing .whatever over the extensions already available is not a given. So .Net, .Org, .US, .INFO, .Me, .Co, .TV, .Biz will also be on the table and those are MUCH bigger and stronger horses even tho so many are laughing at them. So .whatever guys, don't laugh until you pass the worst dead nag in the race.

I am on record saying I am an opportunist. I make a living searching for opportunity. Many of you do that as well. I am not scared to jump on opportunity and when I see it I will jump.

.Com happened for a reason and this entire charade is to try to copy that. Dot-com and the Internet in general was a once in a hundred year phenomenon that the entire world shared in. And it had NOTHING TO DO WITH .COM. It had to do with who built on .com and what they built. The question is can they  attract meaningful businesses to give  them legitimacy? Not one or two but hundreds of thousands and millions? Can those companies endure with them?  Somebody willing to abandon their dot-com because they truly believe what they say?

Or is it merely another door that may or may be LOCKED as I illustrated above.

The horse shit I have been hearing is alienating the single biggest pool of buyers they have. Insulting knowledgeable and professional domainers is lunacy. And you guys all own it. You rise together, it would not surprise me that you fall together. With the exception of those that could have a fit in the Internet eco-system.

It will be many years before we know. We may be all talking about it now but when was the last time you talked about .mobi? .Tel? .Aero? .Biz? How important are any of them to your daily or investment lives? I have no evidence whatsoever of a success. I will search high and low for that success. I do think that some may be surprised by what breaks out and what does not breakout.

Yes, you can run to the window and buy your Kentucky Derby Tickets right now and figure out which of the 1000 will come in. Or , unlike GAMBLING and more like INVESTING, you can wait until they take the first turn. You can wait until the mid-point. You can wait until the stretch. 990 of them won't make it to the finish line. If you want to gamble, you do it now. If you want to invest, you wait until the race is 3/4 over and make your move. I would rather invest $5000 then gamble $500. I would rather pay more for what is proven than risk what I have no idea about.

Rick Schwartz

Morning Folks!!

When you have to resort to obvious bullshit, you know these guys are in DEEP trouble. See their expenses are on going for a year now and they are taking in no money other than restless investors. And what is worse, when they open for business, many will still not take in any money. Then the investors will go ape shit.

They could have read my blog and your comments first to save them their dollars, but since they didn't......

Now it is really starting to look silly when these guys have to resort to "Dot com is Dead" and "Dot com is your Father's Extension" and even "We are running out of dot-com". This is such CRAP that nobody reading this should allow them to get away with it. PERIOD! Friend or Foe. Facts are facts and they have no connections with personality. This is a business discussion among serious domain investors looking for REAL answers.

It does not help them, it does not help us. And it sure is pissing a lot of folks I know off. Folks that were going to buy into gTLD's and now are thinking twice because they see the bullshit and the weakness of their false arguments. They see they have little else. They see my points can not be just overlooked and ignored, swept under the rug and there are so many of them and 99% are unanswered because they can't be answered. So what else can they really do?

Look, I am happy to have all the dollars and attention coming to domaining and have said it for a very long time. But if you want to resort to this BULLSHIT, I too can MAKE SHIT UP. And my shit is much better than your shit. Just give me a few days and I will give you an example that you might not like. But since we are going down this road, ALL IS FAIR. RIGHT??

And like I have said before, you all own each other. The missteps will cost all of you not just one of you. Why? Because you have positioned yourselves that way. That is what bad marketing can do. Short term gain traded for long-term loss.

I don't have to go down there because I have facts and history and empirical evidence on my side and the best you guys got is "Dot com is dead" as you try to run your empire on .com ? And then you don't think you look silly? Weak? Ridiculous? Desperate?

Well you do! And while you may all be singing the same tune now, that tune has the power and ability to sink all of you including the top 10. One TITANIC of a mess.

Let me show you how.

I think you should ALL AT VERY LEAST announce the date you plan to ABANDON your DOT COM FRANCHISE and HEADQUARTERS and move them to your own new gTLD. Tell us when in 2014 you will be doing that.

When will that be happening? See I can make you all look like FOOLS when you go down this road. So when will you be doing that? Please announce the date this week. I am sure readers and investors want to know that answer. We all do. When??  I will ask that EACH and EVERY time I EVER hear that bullshit. And each time you will either have to make up more bullshit or risk looking foolish. Again and again and again.

See, you are all full of shit. Sorry. You set your own trap and I just replaced your bait with mine so PLEASE don't be angry with me.

.Horse is dead. .Ceo is dead. .Camera is dead. I may not be able to pick the top 10 yet, but there is no missing a DEAD HORSE in the middle of the industry stinking things up.

I will focus on the DEAD gTLD's from now on. Each time I will pull another extension that is DOA baby! I have enough material for years!!

And when they die on the vine, When they ROT right in front of us, When they get aborted, I will show you just how dead dot-com really is. So maybe try to raise your game guys. I keep telling you this dog won't hunt. You can try to fool the end-user, fool the investor but to try to fool this industry of investors? Each group will figure it out in pretty short order. Selling is about your benefits. When you have to resort to nonsense, that VOIDS your benefits. Drowns it right out. Especially when those benefits are hard to find to begin with.

So now you have a poll. My poll. A poll of one.

Want to be "Polled"?

The comment box is the way we poll this!

And for the gTLD guys, again, don't forget to announce the date you will be moving off your dot-com. Many folks will be asking that until you actually make the move. Probably at every opportunity they get. I am sure you can't wait for the day so we hope to make it sooner! :-) See what it tastes like to swallow your own BS?

WARNING: CLUSTERF*CK IN PROGRESS!! PROCEED WITH CAUTION.

Rick Schwartz

Afternoon Folks!!

So according to DomainIncite, Donuts signed contracts on the following gTLD's.

"Donuts signed contracts for: .haus, .properties, .maison, .productions, .parts, .cruises, .foundation, .industries, .vacations, .consulting, .report, .villas, .condos, .cards, .vision, .dating, .catering, .cleaning, .community, .rentals, .partners, .events, .flights and .exposed."

The good news is there is one I actually like. The others, not so much. But I have to digest a bit first. So give me a few days. Depends on viable strings. Nothing more, nothing less and that is before the game starts. That is why I keep saying many will "Die on the vine" as you will see illustrated below.

This is all before we even get to Public Acceptance. So that is another conversation for another day. It is a very big conversation because the public holds most of the cards. Not to get off the track here but the public spoke this week in New Jersey. 50,000 sign up for online gaming and a 740 for Obama care.

But I think .Parts actually makes sense. I can see a wide variety of meaningful strings.

To me, these things POP OUT when they work.

.Build came out or was announced the other day and I got 3 strings.

I.build

we.build

they.build

On the other hand I can think of dozens and dozens and dozens of strings that start with build.whatever. You can think of many. The other way around. Good luck! My mind hurts from STRAINING to think of some.

And PLEASE remember, this is only the first obstacle of many. But it is also the one obstacle that has the power to marginalize most from day #1. And will die on the vine. Strings are like roots of a tree. No roots, no tree.

Rick Schwartz