You can boil it all down to one single word…….

Morning folks!!

When you look at where we are economically you can boil it all down to one
single word. One single pointed word. The hardest thing I have ever had to try
and figure out is this economy or lack of one right now. But after a lot of
consideration last summer I figured it out. The lynch pin in all this. The
word......Confidence. There is no confidence in the housing markets. There is
no confidence in the banking system. There is no confidence in lending. There is
no confidence on Wall Street. There is no confidence in the CEO's that are
raping their companies for personal gain. There is no confidence in the
automobile industry. There is no confidence in our government to solve the
problem. There is no confidence in the people that hold positions of trust. So
they can throw trillions at the problem but if confidence is not restored it
will be for nothing. There is not enough money in the universe to cover the
deposits in the banks. The only thing between us and the abyss is confidence. We
should be thankful that most of us are kind of passive. But if the truth be
known I would expect things could quickly unravel.

During the summer I said nothing as I withdrew my money from Wachovia. How
could I say out loud what I thought was about to happen? So day after day I quietly ran
around opening up new bank accounts. That was when I was worried about just one
bank. That was when I still had confidence in the banking system now it was just
picking which ones would collapse. Washington Mutual was an easy one to pick and
that could be said out loud. But Wachovia??? The bank I chose to do business
with for the last 20 years? The one with all my business and personal accounts?
The one people would know I lost my mind if I said out loud? Yup that one. So
for an entire week I ran around opening accounts at every bank I could find plus
some Internet based banks. After that waste of good time they finally raised the
insurance from $100k to $250k and also announced there was not enough money in
the FDIC to pay the claims should there be a massive default. That took my
confidence and lowered it by a few points.

So here we are. First National Mattress is open for business. Confidence in
the banking system is going to get worse before it gets better. Nobody can
predict how things can manifest themselves in crisis. So far, calm is still the
norm. That could change on a dime. We are vulnerable not because of anything we
have done wrong. We are vulnerable because there is no confidence nor should
there be.

Oh, did I mention the #1 reason for lack of confidence and why nothing can
work? Until the crooks are removed it is like trying to make a boat run faster
without addressing any of the holes and leaks where all the water is coming in and
preventing it from going any faster! These crooks need to be removed and paraded
in handcuffs. The perp walk in front of the world. The corruption and abuse is
the single biggest factor and one I have yet to see addressed whatsoever. Oh
yeah, they got Martha Stewart. Save the day!

Let me cut to the chase. I have no confidence that they can restore
confidence before the confidence crumbles. That may be the only thing I am
confident of. You can't put a happy face on this. Each day I wake up and the set
of circumstances and confidence level is a little lower than the day before.
There have been several pops and false starts and there may be several more. But
until confidence returns, and you need a REASON for that to happen, we are still
headed into the dark. Add to that we have yet to see the fallout and manifestation of all the layoffs and store closings of the last 90 days. That tsunami is heading to a town near you in the months to come. It is going to change the look of every Main St. and Mall in the country.

If governments make a bad decision with the policies they are debating
they can make things much worse. They can put us all in jeopardy. Especially if
those making decisions are corrupt themselves. Like the U.S. Congress for example.
I have no confidence in them because if you or I did what half of them did we
would be in jail. The ones trusted to solve the problem are the same corrupt public servants that
got us into this mess and then folks are supposed to have confidence? Sorry,
my confidence level is running on fumes and I doubt I am alone. This economic plane is out of control. The only guy I trust right now is 'Sully' Sullenberger. Let's put him in charge. I am confident that he alone could do the job of restoring confidence.

Have a GREAT day!

Rick Schwartz



9 thoughts on “You can boil it all down to one single word…….

  1. PhilGus

    and when there is collective agreement that there is no hope it is the time to buy into the stock market. since you are ahead of the curve as usual I’ll wait a few months for that!

    Reply
  2. Kevin

    The fact of the matter is most things in life are bullshit.
    Having been married twice, and most every friend and relative also with at least one divorce whenever I go to a wedding I always snicker inside when I hear the line”till death do us part”. LOL yeh right.
    The Social Security System is the world’s biggest ponzi scheme. Make’s Madoff’s game look like pennies.
    The banking system is bogus. The money isn’t there in your account. The account statement says that, but the reality is the minute you make a deposit the bank takes your money and loans it or invests it. If we all went to the bank tomorrow to close our accounts, the banks would say”sorry, no can do”.
    CEO’s are showing how incompetent they really are now because when times are tough you see the real abilities of people to manage efficiently. They can’t hide behind the curtain of increasing sales anymore.
    Politicians are scrambling at all levels Federal, State, and Local to keep us believing in government and our currency. Money? Look at your dollar bill and read what it says, the word money isn’t even printed on it. It is a”NOTE”. It’s only worth more than the paper it’s printed on because of the confidence that someone else will accept it for payments. But in reality it’s just a fancily printed piece of paper that we’ve all been mind stamped to believe has more value than that paper.
    Stocks? In the digital world of today you rarely even see real stock certificates anymore. It’s all just numeric images on your computer screen. Most action isn’t based on due diligence or genuine business factors, but rather observing how many other people are buying or selling that stock.
    Insurance? Same game as banks. They work on the odds of everyone ever needing a withdrawal or payout simultaneously. If we all crashed our cars tomorrow the insurance companies would say”sorry, no can do.” Insurance is really just a gambling casino. You’re placing a bet, but the house will always win because you’re paying for last years payouts ratios.
    Real estate? Well he sold his house for $xxx,xxx so mine must be worth that too. Again all based on artificial beliefs created by markets succeptible to instant change as we all learned the hard way now. Real estate never goes down, at least that’s what the brokers pitched to us all these years. LOL Ummm yeh oh really.
    Healthcare? You trust a doctor because he has a piece of paper hanging on the wall that he went to medical school. But does that mean he’s really talented or just that he was good at passing tests? Look at the malpractice case books and you’ll see the reality. But because his name says DR. we believe him to be talented. Hospitals scare the hell out of me because my mother was an RN and I’ve heard the first hand stories of how many people who work in them aren’t as skilled as you are made to believe.
    There was an interesting series about the auto companies and they interviewed a GM factory worker and he said”quality control is much better now. in the past if some screws were missing we still let the car go through.” God almighty that’s seriously scary. When you buy a car you believe because it’s from a big company it must have been manufactured perfectly safe and precisely. Makes you wonder how many cars out there are missing parts.
    Anyways, you can go on and on but the bottom line is we live in a world largely based on grand illusions with a lot of really talented Magicians out there that keep us”believing”.
    If you ever get a chance take the Universal Studios Tour where they show you how movies are made and it’s a real eye opener how so much of what we thought was real in a film was really not, just special effects that made our eyes and perception believed were real. The diffence between movie making and the real world isn’t much,”special effects” are everywhere in our lives.
    Ironically, the word itself, confidence, starts with the word element”con”. LOL

    Reply
  3. Ms Domainer

    *
    Rick,
    You have nailed it here.
    I supported Barack Obama, and I can only hope that he understands that Wall Street bailouts need to come with stipulations, rules, and regulations to root out crooks and money grabbers.
    I’m not happy with Obama’s Treasury choice; the nominee paid his back taxes ONLY after he was nominated.
    I do not feel confident that this man will do the best job to ensure the safety of our banking system; I see a person whose moral and ethical compass is sorely broken.
    Great post!
    *

    Reply
  4. Danny Pryor

    I just bought a new Sentry Safe and a pair of handcuffs. That should keep things nice and secure. Oh, the FDIC has up to 99 years to pay on those deposits, too, don’t they? As I recall an economics friend of mine telling me, that’s part of the very, very fine print. You can be quite”confident” that no matter the bailout plan, there’s a loophole to bail out the plan if it doesn’t work well.

    Reply
  5. Don

    The economy will make its landing though how hard the plane lands is the question?
    Home Interest rates will go down further 3.5 to 4% % and inflation will hit double digits by summer. You can’t print all this money and not have a reaction..
    Credit unions- spread your money among 10 credit unions I think they are much less risky that traditional banks. Shareholders with traditional banks don’t force profits. You don’t get that with credit unions.
    I see the market in the 6000 to 6500 range by summer.
    Domain names are keeping value though:)

    Reply
  6. namer

    anyone can boil anything to any single word if one wants to, because absoluts do not exists. When you think your worthless domains are really worth something you’re just taking the absurd to a a whole new level.

    Reply
  7. domain guy

    since the us monetary system went off the gold standard
    everything is based on the
    collective power of the government.
    confidence is restored by new leadership ie obama,reestablishing trust and disclosure on the internet.
    don’t forget this is a world wide crises not just the us.it was way worse in 1929.the governemnt will prop up everything nationalizing industries and then eventaully privatizing the same industries in the next 20 yrs.the differnce today is the gov is rowing in the same direction under bush there was no rowing or different fractures rowing in different directions.
    and the domain king should feel free to voice his opinion even when it is”off the wall” but provide a clear disclaimer
    for the masses.

    Reply

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