.Web, .Free, and Geos Lead Domain Investors Choices on new gTLD’s

Morning Folks!!

I will  state for the record once again that ANY and nearly all new gTLD's will need domainers at their core if they really want to have a chance. That is why I believe most of the new extensions will simply die on the vine and have no meaning or importance whatsoever. That takes care of "Most". But as INVESTORS, it is our job to pick out the one or ones that will lead the pack.

NONE will ever approach .com in OUR lifetimes. Not even a close 2nd will appear.

We will have 2 major groups initially. Investors and flippers. So you will have 1000 flippers flapping away. Don't get pissed. It is just a reality that is coming and you can see from the MOON!! Rubber Duck x 1000. Edward Cline x 10,000. :-) Get ready!

On the other hand "Domain Investors" move more quietly and look at it as accumulating an appreciating asset.

That brings me to my poll from Thursday and this post. As you read the comments a picture appears. And once again DOMAINERS get it RIGHT while many will and ARE getting it wrong.

.Com works because it was the first and is synonymous with the Internet. Over 95% of every major business in the world has their .com and collectively spend billions of dollars druming .com into our consiousness. And it worked!!

Add up all the other advertising dollars for all the other extensions and in ONE DAY .com will outspend what others did collectively in over a YEAR.

Besides that you can put .com at the end of anything and it SOUNDS good. You can not say that with MOST of the new extensions. They are limited in meaning and gluing a keyword to something with NO meaning is a tough road to hoe. I look at most extensions as limited and the last thing you want to do is limit yourself.

So when I asked the question on Thursday, "What are the Top 10 New gTLD’s?" I got a very good amount of opinions and many were common.

Without doubt, the ONE extension that lead the way was .Web.

Only a few others were even mentioned more than once. But ones that were, .Free and .music for example.

.NYC lead the .geo's, only one comment for .LA. I see that mainly because it has already been out for so many years without having much impact. I would say .LA is more dependent on .NYC than any other factor. That said Geo gTLD's seem to have the most support and perhaps the best hope.

The one thing most folks FAIL to ask is WHY does .com rule? Why did .com take off like a rocket and leave .net in the dust? What elements are missing with the new gtld's? Will .net have a second look over .crap?

Some of the answers:

.com was adopted universally by large and small businesses throughout the world. It is synonymous with the Internet like the 800 number is to the telephone.

.com has TRAFFIC that is very valuable and when measured against all other current extensions, has more type ins than all other extensions combined and multiplied. An extension with no traffic is like an oil well with no oil. It is still a well but it ain't worth shit.

So the question for .web is it another .com or another .net?

Then of course you have a VERY BIG problem. Holding back of "Premium" domains in each extension. While registrars and registry's will make money, it won't translate well down the food chain. They are likely the ONLY ones that will see a profit. This takes out the NATURAL DEMAND. Another element that will be missing from the .com formula.

Missing elements? Yes, many. Some are the foundation of .com and KEY to the success of .com and completely MISSING in 99% of the .whatevers. Good luck with that formula. Good luck with IGNORING those KEY elements.

Those missing key elements is why .web lead the way for domain investors when asked which gtld's have a CHANCE to succeed.

So a different recipe GUARANTEES a different outcome.

I DO believe there could be some every powerful phrases that come out. But one or even several of those are not enough to support an entire extension. And while folks throw around big numbers before this all comes into being, those numbers will be a MOUNTAIN to climb for most. Most will be stranded on that mountain like .travel and some will die on the mountain like .mobi. But even those like ME who have jumped on .xxx for example would gladly take those $$$$ back and return those "Premium" domains.

That is why I believe that the gtlds will not only make .com MUCH more valuable but EXPONENTIALLY more valuable. It also has a chance to rescue some of the extensions that have been around for a long time and get a second look.

.Travel may get a second look and probably find the same result as the first look. However, others may do better. .TV, .ME, .Info. Net, .Org. I know many think I will be saying .biz. Sorry, ain't on my list. "B" stringers in my book. Sorry.

The main difference I see is the way domain INVESTORS will look at things and the way domain FLIPPERS will look at things. So I just look at today. Folks email me all day long to flip .co. I am sure there is a market for those names. But it is a very soft and hollow market and getting more than a few hundred dollars is a very hard task if it can be sold at all. Same with .xxx. Demand is just not there. That means prices are soft and likely won't be climbing much if at all. Investor asset or a liability?

So as this all comes closer into focus, we will follow this and the ANTICS that follow. The domain INVESTOR will be the ones picking most of the winners and by not buying, picking the losers as well. And NEVER forget that type-in traffic is still the core of value that DROVE the entire .com train.

I have invested in almost every new extension over the past decade++ and not a single one of them have put me in the black including .me. On the other hand, during those same years, .com has changed my life. I can only hope it happens again!! But I can not ignore evidence that cost me over $1 Million to obtain. That money buys me a STRONG opinion.

Rick Schwartz

They Come with Passion or Money. Seldom Both. How to Turn Passion into Dollars

Morning Folks!!

You can sell an asset many ways and you can sell to many people. But at the end of the day it comes to money and/or passion. Money is the simple way but passion comes with more opportunity.

Passion is one of the only things that can substituted for money. Passion has value. But only when matched up with something you know and have enjoyed some success with. Passion is the main ingredient in a domain lease not money. Less money gives the seller more opportunity to share in the upside.

It saddens me to see domains sold that I KNOW can be leased for the same amount in just 1-2 years. That is desperation or shortsightedness. Not all great domains are lease-able. But many are and my eye can tell the difference.

I could have sold candy.com for 3x what I paid for it. But holding on to it gives me 2.5x what I paid for it EVERY year and it is increasing. Plus I now own 10% of the comany. Plus I share in the next sale of candy.com at an even higher percentage rate. Which was better to do? Is it easy? Nope? Can it be done? Yes. Is it easier to lease today than 5 years ago? By a mile!

So before you sell, you should at a minimum ask me if the domain has a lease potential. Transform a $10,000 one time sale into a $1000/month revenue generating machine. I am sorry, but anyone not seeing the upside is missing the boat. AGAIN!

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

My Domain Name of the Day. SandyCam.com

Morning Folks!!

When I check my stats each day one of the things I look for is domains that all of a sudden get traffic. This morning was no different. I was surprised to see a domain that usually gets virtually no traffic got 442 visitors yesterday and poised to get much more in the days ahead. I registered Sandycam.com back in 1998.

The first thing I did was change the keywords so I would get relevant results and I expect the click thru rate will go way up today. Since this is going to be an historic storm, it will be interesting to watch what happens.

So just sitting here at the Finish Line waiting for events to catch up with 1998.

And if you are anywhere in the Northeast coast and inland areas, FLOODS and TREES are what is your enemy. Do not underestimate flooding and flash floods etc.. Remember, most people die AFTER the storm is over. Hope to see you online during.....This IS history in the making. This is breaking records and will be talked about for decades to come. A slow motion tragedy getting stronger not weaker. There is nowhere to run once the storm starts as roads will be blocked by down trees and electric lines. Been there...........Be safe!

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

Low Tide, High Tide….When it Comes to Business, it Does Not Matter! Just Start at the Finish!

Morning Folks,

There is low tide and high tide in both life and in business. They all have their place. They all have their advantages. They all have their disadvantages. When you see those tides clearly and know they exist and adapt to each, there is no such thing as bad times. There are just different times.

Good and bad things happen during any and all of those times. Of course if you don't look at it that way, it becomes hard to play the game and you will likely drown regardless of the tide. It is the understanding of these tides that separate the groups that thrive from the ones that struggle. I invest a lot of time in my life trying to show my readers the way to thrive. The only way to thrive is understand and be master of the 8 inches between your ears. Every win or loss or failure or success comes from within that 8 inch space.

The past 4-5 years have been a lowering of the tide. Still many made their fortunes regardless. If you look back I write extensively about it as the tide began to recede and I planned for these tough times. Part of my plan was how do I parachute over 5 years and still be financially strong while others became financially weak. Then at the depth of the weakness to be able to grab that low hanging fruit? How do I do that at a time when domains were at record selling levels? That keyword 'Patience' just keeps popping up because the tides are about patience. The seasons are about patience. Life is about patience. I am not a patient person. Not by any stretch. But somewhere along the way I was able to define patience. In different situations the time you alot to patience is different. Most bad things happen because somebody ran out of patience a bit too soon in that 8 inch space.

These are challenging but also very exciting times. Let me be clear as I have said for years. There is more opportunity at this very second than all of history glued together. But if you don't know the difference between opportunity and a shadow, then you lose. If you can not master your mind, you lose.

Then it all circles back to decisions. That is the defining point of life. Making good decisions. No matter how big or how small, any decision can lead to good or bad places. Where do those decisions happen? In that 8 inch playing field.

So when I look at life and the future through my eyes, I always see beyond the current tide. Beyond the current conditions. Beyond the cycles that are happening. They are just factors to deal with. When there is a storm your job is to hunker down and be patient.

I have never stopped buying domain names. But they have to fit my definition to tie my dollars up. I can just as easily go out spend and enjoy that money. When I go through my lists of domains I have bought on the secondary market most domains I buy are $100, $500, $1000 and up to $5000. That is MY sweet spot. That is the game that the formula I use fits the best. And it does not matter if it was 17 years ago or today. I still look for the same keys.

Think about it. In most cases you are buying something that nobody else on the planet wants at that moment in time. So the upside MUST be there. How do you find the upside? By looking at it through the eyes of others. Through the eys of different tides. Through the eyes of different decades. Through the eyes of progress and how things might unfold. I place a bet on an assumption based on what I have learned and what I am aware of. I look for the finish line first. I start at the finish line and work backwards to the beginning. Always have. Always will. Find the answer first and then figure out how to get there without bending reality or kidding yourself.

2012 has been a great year in that there has been a lot of movement and folks online are getting more sophisticated and business is starting to understand that it is SALES that will either keep them in business or put them out of business. The website is no longer the hobby. It is the lifeline of nearly every living and breathing business and entity and person.

When I negotiate it is not about what they see. It is what I see. But when the two merge, great things happen. These mergers of the mind are now with much less headwinds. I know about those headwinds fighting for 17 years in something still few believe in or truly understand. But that can not sway me because I start at the finish line and the key is patience. To know that a certain journey will take a certain amount of time. See when you start at the beginning you really can't judge where the finish is nor how long it will take to get there. But when you start your journey at the finish line and trace the trail back to today, you can be pretty damn close to predicting how long that journey will take including the wrong turns along the way.

I was sad to read the post by Eric Borgos at Impulse the other day. He has been around a very long time and has/had a great portfolio of very valuable names. Somewhere long the way he made decisions that just did not pay off. The time and expense and loss of 4000 mini-sites among others. Like I say, sometimes doing nothing is just much better. Sadly, this is an example of what I have talked about all these years. Sadly folks are resorting to selling domains from need and not a point of strength. That's why I look at the weekly domain sales reports through different sets of eyes.

Great domains will not go down in value for anyone reading this in their lifetime. Circumstance will FORCE sales that are less than their value and a weak market, low tide, will allow that to happen. But only if you participate in that game at this low tide cycle.

See in the next 12-18 months I am seeing an explosion of business. Now let me also say that the tide will get lower before it begins to rise but the rising tide is now well within sight and those that make it there are all going to be very well rewarded.

It's been over 2 weeks since TRAFFIC ended and I have yet to get back on my feet. I spent a few hours in the hospital on Monday and still days away from fully recovering, but I am no longer sick.

Our health is everything. But I am also so happy that I constructed a life when I was incapacitated from a bad back back in 1988. It was then and there that I knew I had to construct a life and income stream capable of producing income whether I was healthy or not. Old or young. Working or not. Until then, if I did not travel, I made no money. I was a akin to a waitress. When you don't show up and wait on tables, you don't earn, you don't eat, you can't survive.

So I look at the last 2 weeks and while I have not taken care of all of my business, I was able to piece meal about 95% of it a few minutes here and there. Probably my 2 most productive weeks of the year. So many seeds planted over those years that they sprout 24/7 on their time line not mine. Low tide, high tide. Sick or well. The path to the finish line passes right by my front door because I started at the finish line and planned for that to happen even when that finish line was a dream on the shores of the unknown wilderness. More news to follow.

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

Is Google’s Revenue Problem Directly Related to Domain Channel Losses?

Morning Folks!!

Has Google let the Golden Goose out of the cage? I am sure as hell going to make a case that is exactly what has happened. Let's be blunt, because domainers have been financially raped by Google over the past 5 years, domainers have abandoned parking in droves. The best domains have left. The most trafficked domains have left. And that has left Google holding the bag. Now domainers are not without blame, they allowed themselves to take less and less because we were spoiled by the easy money.

It was a great model for us back then. But when the dollars started drying up on payouts even tho Google kept charging the end user more and more, it was only a matter of time before resourceful domainers looked for other options. And so we did and so the BEST traffic has left Google for greener pastures. For bigger opportunities. For bigger payouts.

In 2007 nearly 100% of my revenue was through Google/Yahoo and parking. By the end of last year I was down to 50% and by the end of this year it will be 33% and declining. When you own the land, you get to build what you want and how you want. Each time a domain leaves the confines of parking, quality of Google traffic suffers and that traffic can NEVER be replaced. NEVER!

Let me be clear. Type in traffic is THE most potent traffic on the Internet and I will be DAMNED if I will change my view on that because the evidence is there. Now of course there are only a few hundred domainers that have this golden traffic and we are up against legions of MILLIONS of SEO and others that will feverishly argue against that. What else would you expect from them? They must protect their turf or we will all find out it is a bunch of smoke and mirrors.

See where I come from, one SALE has more value that 1 MILLION visitors and many will argue for the 1 million. Matter of fact, most will. 1 Million visitors have COSTS associated with it. One type in visitor that turns into a sale has virtually no cost in comparison. Those that ignore sales will be looking for a new profession in time. No company can exist without some form of sales.

For 17 YEARS I have argued with techies. Guess what? They lose and NOW it will soon be recognized. It takes 20 YEARS to bust a myth this big and wide that so many have bought into. But rest assured that myth will and IS being busted. The end user is not an idiot. He KNOWS it is all about sales.

Google messed up by letting PURE domain traffic out of the cage. Google messed up by overpaying for SHIT for so many years. Google put folks into business because they bought WORTHLESS traffic and mixed the shit with gold and then lost track of which was the shit and which was the gold. They paid for trademarked traffic they had no business paying for. They paid for invented traffic of mini sites that would use SEO to gain the system. They outsmarted themselves and I am here to tell you there are long term ramifications for short term gains and that is what we are seeing.

They once owned all the gold and now they don't. Type in traffic is Destination Traffic. Folks that have been failed by search looking for a direct alternative. Type in traffic has no equal. It's a fact few recognize but a FACT it is. Just like water runs down hill, PURE and specific type in traffic turns into sales more than any other traffic. It is not a debatable subject for me. You are free to disagree but I am also free to reject it as I have for so many years. Point is, I will soon be recognized as being right all these years and THAT is a problem many will have to deal with.

The traffic from the best domains in the world no longer go to Google. Instead they let the birdie out of the cage and they will never have an opportunity to get that traffic back. Of course some of those domains are now full fledged businesses that might or might not use Google. As time goes on we are seeing more and more options and Google just may be the last on the list for us. We are shit bums to Google and as such have been treated like we are toe jam.

Somebody at Google fucked up and they fucked up bad and fucked up long term. They can NEVER get this traffic back again. Arrogance has a cost. When an end user pays Google $5 and we get 1/2 a penny that is getting fucked because they can. No other reason. Now there are alternatives and in the coming year we are going to see more and more BLOOD spilled by Google.

Just as a refresher.....when the market crashed in 2007-2008 Google was at a high of $750/share. Now they finally got back to par while other stocks have doubled and tripled in value. $750/share? Not any more. Apple at the time was under $200 a share. Amazon under $100. Sirius Radio was pennies. That makes Google one of the worst performing stocks over this time and it may not be that rosey from here.

And in the next 5 years some think Google will lose the reign....Read this. I don't know if that will happen but there are indications of very strong headwinds ahead. So far Google has survived by buying the threats. That was why I was happy Groupon said 'No'. I don't care about Groupon. I care about competition. And while Groupon may not be a huge threat, Apple most certainly is.

Nobody has to believe me or agree with me. But on the same token, NOBODY can make me change how I see things unfolding. NOBODY can derail my 20 year plan. NOBODY can force me to abandon a plan I have stayed staedfast to for all these years. During that time theroy has turned into fact and I have used those facts to build on and to illustrate what I see, why I see it and how it all unfolds from here on out. I just ask a simple question. Is my vision today closer or further from reality then it was in 1995? Nobody has to get it 100% right. But certainly many along the way got it 100% wrong.

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

Pigeon Shit for ME may be an Opportunity for YOU.

Morning Folks!!

I have quite a portfolio of NNN.mobi domains and 1 word .mobi I may or may not renew for those into 'Keyword' domains.

If anyone is interested, contact me. And just remember for all these guys yelling SEO and Keywords domain names, the ones on the bottom of the list should be of interest. If these SEO and keyword guys can't do anything with .mobi, why would anyone believe they can do it with 1000 .whatevers? That has always been my big question?? Cuz according to them, the extension does not matter. The keyword does. So are they FULL OF SHIT??