Morning Folks!!
To understand this post you need to read this one that I
wrote in May first or it will have no value and why waste your time?
So we have the 15 second SuperBowl commercial with Jay, Dave
and Oprah and nobody can get the right answer so I will publish it here so they
get it. If Burger King went out of
business would McDonalds double their business? The answer is no. If the
Tonight Show has a weak host does that help Letterman? The answer is no.
Now without even knowing the real numbers I can tell you
that Conan did not help Dave. My guess is Letterman’s audience is getting
smaller. He has weak competition and that means the overall INTEREST LEVEL is
much lower and at 11:30 folks are looking for a new home. I like “Forensic
Files”. So a splintered audience is hurting Dave and will hurt Jay. So, just like Ali/Frazier
brought the game of boxing to new highs, so will this. Two Titans back fighting
it out for America’s favorite? Not exactly. Here is what I see and why they
would both did this. They are both in trouble. They are both scared. The 11:30
slot has been the prize of TV for my entire lifetime. But is it today?
Folks change habits over 7 months. This was a big habit to
break. Many broke it. I just
believe they are working with a smaller audience overall and that hurts their
pocketbook. This change could even collapse one or the other. See the equation
is no longer the same. Damage has been done. NBC looks like a bunch of fools
and Dave has plenty of baggage these days.
So while I was pretty certain about the post I made back in
May that pretty much unfolded as predicted, this one is much more murky. I don’t
have a clear vision of the overall outcome. It could go either way. My point is
while I explained in that last post about why this was related to domains and
honing your skills, this one is the opposite. The other was clear and that
presents a great opportunity. This one is not so clear and so it is an opportunity
worth walking away from. It is more of a gamble. The outcome can go many
different ways. So this is how I pick what business to get into, what domains
to buy, what real estate to choose. Clarity of how things will unfold. Then
just get to where the masses go before they even know they want to go there.
Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz
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