Turmoil and Opportunity. Some Will Get Rich, Some Will Go Broke!

Morning Folks!!

When we left off nearly 2 months ago I said we were at a “Pivotal Moment”. Anyone out there that does not believe that now? The entire landscape has changed. But what does that mean? I needed TIME to THINK and understand how overnight, DOMAINS and Internet Addresses became the center of the universe.

Go back to my 2008-2010 posts and you will see I have consistently said the worst part of the recession would start in mid 2011 because of the extended weakness we were about to endure. Welcome to that point. This is when the recession STARTS, not when it ends. This is when it can become dire for some and great opportunity for others. But if you saw this coming you had time to prepare. While others laughed at my doom and gloom, I prepared. While others got weaker I aimed to get stronger.

You have to step back, take a deep breath and STOP. I have said so right on this blog many times. How will things change? What direction will things go in? I get some laughs out of some of the comments of what it all means. Let me be 100% clear. It DOES mean something. Something very big. Something that looks very different.

I learned about hypothesis vs. predictions and the difference. A monkey can make a prediction but hypothesis is based on experience and events and knowledge and understanding and training and life and common sense and 50 other ingredients and awareness’s and senses. There is a BASIS for an outcome, a conclusion. That’s how you see what will unfold tomorrow while FAILURE chases YESTERDAY or just curls up and dies as they become VICTIMS of events instead of beneficiaries of those events.

Most base their predictions on hopes. Or they base it on what they need and want as opposed to whatever REALITY is. Turmoil and Opportunity. That is what best describes exactly where we are. For some FEAR is the natural reaction. Some get paralyzed. But if you figure out how to time things right, you just focus on the byproduct of that fear and that is called “opportunity”.

Nobody has talked about that and now you will hear that phase over and over again. “Turmoil and Opportunity” is the place and the moment. Both are huge, one very dangerous and one dreams are made of. During the months ahead more industries will be disrupted than ever before.

Just in our tiny little corner of the universe there are companies in our space that are on the verge of collapse. There are companies that wander aimlessly. There are companies that are hiding under their desks. These companies risk sitting on the sidelines while others eat their lunch. In sports they call that a “Forfeit”. There are companies that came with fanfare that have now quietly disappeared. Don't forfeit.....FIGHT!

Don’t know what I am talking about? Then that is exactly what I am talking about. You can’t see great opportunity so you miss it because peril has you paralyzed. That’s just Human Nature at work. But if you don’t understand that part, then you miss it. I agree it is invisible. It is invisible because it is based on conditions and many conditions at that. But if you are oblivious to these things of course you would react negatively. Human Nature.

Instead of forming an hypothesis, some form fear or baseless predictions of no value based on want rather than reality as I stated above.

We may be in a recession, we may be in a crisis, but none of that can harness progress and progress is happening faster than I can type this. So are you getting your piece of it? There has never been so much money sitting on the sidelines. Plenty of cash out there. This is NOT a cashless recession. This is a recession of ideas, a recession of business acumen a recession of risk and know how. It’s generational but this time the generations are determined by how computer literate you might be or many other factors.

Generational because in less than 20 years we have gone from factory based societies to information based. Where the #1 tool in the world went from a hammer to a keyboard. And while you might think 15-20 years is a long time, it is not when you talk about progress. We had 1000 years of progress in 20 years. That’s like driving a Ferrari at 200mph when you’re taking a right turn. We added a communication dimension we never had and it is NOW that we are just understanding the new things that can evolve from that. Recession forces folks to step up.

How do you blog when the changes that are happening at this very moment are the most profound in any of our lifetimes? And on the other hand there are such numerous things coming out each and every day that no human or group can even chronicle the changes or stop long enough to understand the impact if indeed there is one.

So many companies are being rocked to the core right now. Others are rocking and rolling like never in history. What a stark difference. But these dynamics are what create opportunity on a large scale. See the largest changes in history are happening each and every day and while you may not see it, I am telling you, I sure as hell see it.

Just look at how many industries the iPad is revolutionizing. If you have not noticed then you are doing something wrong. You are not paying attention to the future. The iPhone was Apple's 'Backdoor' to taking market share. But the iPad is a disrupter right through the front door. And while there are now 100 tablets on the market, when added all together, they are still in the shadow of the iPad and will never catch them.

How many new uses and applications and cost saving and other features just from this one device? I have been all over since day #1 because I understood what was about to happen and why it was about to happen. Still we are in the infant stage and most don't see or understand it. There is a REASON Apple has more cash than the US Government.

Let’s analyze unemployment. That is a fallacy. What has changed is who provides the job. Who books your time. In more and more cases it is ourselves. We, as a society, no longer work for the factory in town. We create revenue streams not a 9-5 job. The largest, fastest growing parts of society are the people that move and shake and make things happen one deal at a time. One job at a time. One contract at a time.

Massive changes are coming to the Domain Industry. An entire new breed with very deep pockets are coming to the table. The biggest are faultering. The smallest are disappearing. The weakest are already gone.

10 GREAT domains make you a domainer. 100,000 worthless domains makes you a pigeon shit farmer at best and a fool at worst. The quantity game has collapsed. Quality is and always has been the real game.

I have listened to a LOT of propaganda over the past couple of years. Most of it was not true. Just based on a wish. Based on a prediction. Based on need and want. Not an hypothesis based on how things were actually unfolding and then finding a parallel in history to help understand.

I watched the entire future unfold with doteverything going viral overnight. But .everything just made .something (dot com) much more valuable and famous. The new game is expensive, but the game is trying to duplicate something you can’t duplicate. Every .everything will want, need and HAVE TO HAVE the dotcom counterpart. That counterpart is worth a king’s ransom!

Exciting times. Lots of new ways to make new money as I watch the masses…..GET IT WRONG once again. But wrong does not mean unprofitable. Right does not mean you will get rich. Confused? Start reading this blog and you will get a lesson in life as a dividend of learning and understanding domain names and what they have to do with Human Nature. Seasoned domainers, pay particular attention to the May and June posts. It only proves what I have said for a very long time. Some folks deal with the truth and some folks do what they do when confronted with it.

I have been very public over the last 15+ years as I did everything in my power to bring domain names to the consciousness of everyone and have them understand why they were important and valuable. With .everything, that mission has been accomplished and then some. Critical mass in domains has been achieved!

So the next phase is completely different. It’s based on another hypothesis. The one I came up with in 1995 and 1996 is now blossoming and unfolded as described back then. The new hypothesis includes the entirety of the last one plus 50 other ingredients and awareness’s and senses as described above. The only difference is in 1996 I yelled it from every mountaintop for all to hear without VISIBLE BASIS and now I see no need to do that. Point proven. The record speaks for itself and I intend to exploit that record.

My blog is my diary and opportunity to memorialize things with a date certain. To announce events and sales and thoughts and ideas. I always believe my posts would stand the test of time. Now more than ever. On the record, for the record.

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

37 thoughts on “Turmoil and Opportunity. Some Will Get Rich, Some Will Go Broke!

  1. Rob Sequin

    Well done!
    We’ve been waiting for another post :-)
    I’m sure several parking companies are on life support.
    I know the quantity game is over. I get emails and calls everyday from people looking to sell (bail out) of their domains. I stopped answering the emails and let most calls go to voice mail.
    This shake out will be good for those who make it through. There will be better business models, more developed domains, better people and less shit domains and shit people.
    Today you have to THINK to make money in the domain industry and offer REAL value to your customers/visitors.

  2. Shane Cultra

    You used to have to climb your way up the ladder of success. Lately you just have to step over them. Winning through attrition is still winning.

  3. todaro

    even though your pic is a bit toothy you seem to be a very handsome man. i’m glad you have allowed comments again ’cause sometimes i like to respond even though i don’t have much to say. but basically i agree.

  4. Christopher W. Hartnett

    It is hard to speak about opportunity without addressing Wisdom.
    Wisdom comes to some with age and experience.
    For others, it remains all illusive and keep making the same mistakes over and over again.
    It is our daily choice.
    It is not all one and not some of the other.
    We all experience both sides of that coin.
    That is the nature of life.
    We all make some good decisions and we all make mistakes.
    To say we don’t is delusional and surely not healthy for the future.
    To make more good decisions should be the focus and goal.
    I think the outcome really depends on how flexible we are in our thinking and how willing we are to adapt to change without attachment to the past.
    Achievements of the past got us here, but what are we doing and thinking now determines our future.
    Especially in the Domain Business. Sell too soon, you miss out. Don’t sell when the right buyer arrives, can leave you stuck till the next cycle re-emerges.
    Some real gems of wisdom in this post Rick. Thank you.
    The opportunities that were available in 1992-1999 in the domain space can seem huge in retrospect for those that were and weren’t there.
    I contend that opportunities may be bigger now because, as you have acknowledged here Rick, critical mass has been achieved. More awareness translates into more buyers. More buyers translate into better, stable base pricing from a broader financial spectrum of purchasers, opening the doors for those with larger amounts of cash to spend on something that no longer seems esoteric and actually has been accepted as business essential.
    Good, prosperous times have been had for Domainers and more good prosperous times are ahead for those that are awake.
    As a wise man once told me,”you’re only as good as your next clear thought.”
    How is that working for you? It seems to be almost a full time job for me the older I get.
    Good luck in the moment.
    Our domain is no doubt expanding and this is a very good thing.

  5. Jeff Schneider

    Hello Rick,
    Job well done and DOCUMENTED, We should all start calling you ORACLE and not DOMAIN KING. Seriously I take my hat off to you.
    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)

  6. Richard

    Glad you’re posting again!
    This is my little dose of life-wisdom and encouragement. :-)

  7. Poor Uncle

    Rick, you are the man Mr. Millionaire. U have the sale to proof that u r brilliant and rich. :) And, we can all agree Steve Jobs is a genius. Now tell us when the hell are we going to get are of this lousy economy? But to let u know real estate are sold like hotcakes in my area and I live in one of the hardest hit housing market in southern California.

  8. George

    Thanks for this post, Rick. Some excellent thoughts and points. Where do I sign up for the apprenticeship? :)

  9. Iba

    > Every .everything will want, need and HAVE TO HAVE the dotcom counterpart. That counterpart is worth a king’s ransom!< And do what with it. Nice to own defensively, but they want spend their funds advertising and developing their TLD not a .com. The .com must deal with new competitors to whom a community may feel greater loyalty. Though for a while at least it becomes higher-profile, so effect on value varies from one to the next.

  10. earl adkins

    We need more post Rick ,hope everyone is loading up on silver and gold.
    Market down 500+ yesterday,its starting to get fun. This is just the beginning.

  11. Lucas

    Very interesting post, although I guess will have to read it several times to understand it well LOL. In any case its great that you post again! :-)

  12. Chadi Ghaith

    Yes, what u say is very true Rick, its called a Paradigm Shift… Some take a paradigm shift to be limited to a scientific thing,
    but in reality it touches base on everything.
    The keyboard u mention has managed to transform the paradigm from Give in order to Receive to Receive in Order to Give (and am quoting here Yehushua Yaacov Ben Avraham the owner of IPC technologies who spoke about this back in 1999 when he wrote his amazing letter to Netanyahu proposing a new Theory of Consciousness applied).
    those who work in factories in return for a neutral piece of paper we refer to as currency, have little inspiration cause they only complete one part of a huge process (an assembly line) which they never get to see or enjoy their role in the making of the final thing).
    They give and give, time, effort, their present etc.. all in return for a future meaning they rarely could zoom out enough to enjoy; and so disappointment brings about faultering….
    As the paradigm shifts to Receive in order to Give (thx to the keyboard tool u mention), now people receive the assessment of their truth (their cognitive worth) immediately as they perform each one of those”task at a time” thing u describe; and so they can learn quicklier than ever, and also they can fall quicklier than ever too.
    The more meaning they receive the more they gain momentum to give, and its like a snowball effect and Visa Versa…
    The shattering of time and space obstacles as more people integrate the online world into their daily affairs has helped collapse the polarity between Give and Receive into a very dangerous level and yet a very very exciting one too. Its like speeding up logic to the level of magic…
    Magic has always stood at the polar opposite side to logic. So, in order for magic to show its face, there has to be this readiness to for logic to melt into oblivion just at the right time, otherwise logic will forever helplessly chase to explain magic (in vain) like a shadow chasing after the real object (it has no life of its own, but it still deceive the viewer to see it withing a pseudo life of its own).
    Your post has captured me Rick cause it reminded me of concepts I so strongly believe in and kinda gave me a link as to how to connect the domain industry view with those more general concepts, and i think am able to see a better picture now..
    As always, quality it is with u, never quantity…

  13. Bill Roy

    Rick, from over here in the UK your thoughts are much appreciated as usual.
    Glad your posting again.

  14. David

    Absolutely true. Where does the time for action come from? It comes from those that are able and ready to assess the situation. A clear vision of the future is essential if you want to be prepared to make progress. Well said. Thanks.

  15. Main Street Bob

    I would agree with almost all of what Rick is saying, but in case you’re not up to date on the latest science: Planet X has arrived and in the next few years will be orbiting the sun wreaking untold havoc. The kind the ruined the ancients every 10,000 year cycle. It’s the size of Jupiter and when it passes between our earth and the sun, well, rivers will boil, whole continents will be changed and if half of the earth survives that would be a great victory: Do the research, much wiser men than myself are in a holding pattern, enjoying life as best they can while preparing to ? the future. If there is a future, many claim the solar storms will make not only the ipad, but also our very monetary system as we know it obsolete. Thats not to say things won’t ever be worth something again. But if these predictions are true… a big rig full of the best domains in our ‘little’ world won’t buy you a loaf of bread. What’s happening now around the world is just a taste of much worse time to come, and not ones that can be predicted, because it only happens every 10,000 years or so. I am not a pessimist. I am a realist. I am in a holding pattern. If these Planet X predictions prove to be wrong, I will be overjoyed. Peace. ~

  16. Rob

    Thanks for taking the time to post the great points about the recent past and current economic situations that we are experiencing (and the dangers that it will bring [to some] as well as the increadible opportunities that it will bring [to others]) Great points, also, about the great technological changes that have taken place in the last 20 years which have drastically changed the way and the speed in which we do”everyday” social and business activities! Thanks again, for posting and for continuing to share your thoughts/experience with anyone that will listen!

  17. 90 percent Pigeon Shit

    You tried to warn them, Rick. Just browse the forums these days. It is a total pigeon shit festival. I mean, it is unreal how bad the names are floating around those places.
    Honest to God, people are trying to sell shit like Web-Bug.org Dumbass user Keyword Factory at Dn Forum….he has the world’s worst names…bar NONE). I saw it today. People want real money for names that make zero sense. Keyword Factory also has listed Molecular-Biologist.com. I mean, it never ends, and he has worse names than that, yet he pounds the sales threads for years on end. I don’t get it. How he’s not homeless I will never know.
    These clowns are going broke and clogging up the forums with their pigeon shit. Also, there are people who should know better who are slinging their garbage around trying to catch newbies off guard with their pukeville names.
    The game has changed. Everyone turned out to be a scammer. Dotcom will always be King, of course, but even with that knowledge the domaining game is turning into a solo endeavor now more than ever.
    The forums have been overtaken by some of the biggest pigeon shit farmers the world has ever seen. Swamped in shit.

  18. Theo

    Awesome post.
    Let’s hope the majority of domainers get a new mindset after this post. Now it’s time to look around and observe and get into action instead of complaining.
    Things are being set in motion, the wheels are turning but there is no turning back.

  19. ilze@excellent.ca

    Rick, I love this quote:
    10 GREAT domains make you a domainer. 100,000 worthless domains makes you a pigeon shit farmer at best and a fool at worst. The quantity game has collapsed. Quality is and always has been the real game.
    Rick, thanks, but this says is all for me…Ilze aka QueenMother.’
    I gotta start to dump my pigeon shit and concentrate on the good shit.
    You do have a way of separating the wheat from the chaff., lol…

  20. Altaf

    Congrats Rick. Well said again and again. But what we need to do with the type ins holdings? Development? You cannot develop thousands or even hundreds in a proper way. What to do with barren domains? As it will cost huge renewals year after year.

  21. domain guy

    i agree with everything you have said.as the castillo bros and yourself stated type in traffic is slowing to domains..mostly .coms.
    because eveyone is using google for better or worse.on the subject of .everything frank stepped up with millions and purchased 3 .xxxs.
    with the launch of 1000s of new suffixs backed by corp dinero with trillions sitting on the sidelines everyone will sit and watch paralized.movement causes risk which at this point is not preferred.
    if you are correct type in traffic will increase at the .com suffix..
    no bragging about 4 million dollar sale?

  22. Christian

    I keep learning and learning from reading. This is the best post I have read from you so far. Great work, great information. Congrats on the sale + equity. Great stuff.

  23. Craig

    Welcome back…Good advice for sure….I said from the beginning
    “a domain name has to have recognizable commercial value”
    (I registered a pile of crap anyway) But by listening and talking to some of the great domainer folks, I hope to see the economic light of day soon. Long live .com!

  24. domain guy

    your crystal ball is in high gear..and your explanation is above the heads of many..including ceos.this post indicates you are more than a domainer you are knowledgable in many industries and have a perspective that is in the top 10% of the world. i have razor sharp perspective and you exceed my ability by a 1000 fold.

  25. Vanessa

    I loved this post. I don’t know how I got here, other than a big hunt around for domain selling advice, which I’m adding to my multiple income streams.
    There is a lot to be said about dividing and conquering. What I have learnt is, that by having several income streams based on my knowledge of various net skills, I have the potential to earn much more than a 9-5. The trick is to balance everything out so you’re not a slave to just one thing. That leads to desperation.
    If someone can pay me for a net based service in this current climate, (or a net asset) it proves to me what you’re saying Rick.
    I think I will follow your blog to see if I can gain more insight into this income stream.


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