Empirical Evidence at Odds with Fallacious gTLD Assumptions and Talking Points!

Morning Folks!!

Coming to the right conclusions with less information and doing it early. Isn't that what speculation is about?  Figuring it out early or first? I figured this out in 1996-1997 after starting in 1995 and each day I figure out a little more and I will never apologize for being first on a line. Or first to see something. Or first to take action. Or first to register a domain name. And anyone that would point to that as anything negative could only define themselves, not me.

Like I said, Berkens is my research department because he finds things FIRST. Newspapers are in business to be first. They want to break the story first.

In what I do, I want to find all the pitfalls first. It's the pitfalls that need attention and that is what I focus on. I tune out the blue sky talk totally as that is a trap for the naive. You only see the blue sky if you survive the tornado and storms they swear are not there.

The beginning, the end and the pitfalls along the trail. What else really matters? I don't care about the BS drama and lipstick along the way.

A pitfall can never be ignored. So they have to be addressed. But a pitfall can only be filled with an argument that is sound and holds water.

I have been making posts on ".whatever" for 2.5 years now. Dozens of posts with .whatever in the title and some 90 posts examining it from top to bottom. I thought about it for a long time before I ever wrote a single word and my main job sitting here is thinking and playing out different scenarios looking for answers.  Real answers. Not based on what I want, but based on the reality of what I see and the future as I see it unfolding. On the record for the record before it becomes commonplace.

And when I was doing that on Sunday I found......

Another argument that makes no sense.

On one side I am told by gtld companies that 5-6 billion people are yet to go online. And this huge expansion coming. ok, fine. Let's say I buy into that for the MOMENT since the buying power for about 3 billion of them is zilch. But leave that aside, their argument is for those 6 billion. So I will follow their yellow brick road.

Then a few  minutes later they say how they are going to leave .com as the market share gets all diluted and watered down. How does that make any sense when they just got through telling me about those 6 billion being added?? Which yellow brick road do they want me to walk down. Which one am I to believe? Because these 2 premises collide.  They very simply collide. They can't have it both ways.  So when you stick to the numbers, there is no room for bullshit like this.

I am in sales. These are arguments that don't hold water and they contradict themselves. Am I supposed to swallow this?

The facts of the matter are already there with other parallels for those that choose to look at them and understand them. Folks want to look at Las Vegas and their growth without looking at other places and their growth. But again, there was a REASON to go to Vegas. There was a need, there was a want and there was a desire for gambling and entertainment and hot chicks and booze. They were the only place you could go for legalized gaming in those days.

Now look. You have all types of states and countries doing the gaming and lottery and yes Las Vegas has collapsed right?????? Is that what horse shit I am supposed to swallow guys??

Macau, lotteries, indian casinos, islands, Reno, Lake Tahoe, Cruise Ships. Are you kidding me. HOW did that hurt Las Vegas?? It didn't and it made it even greater than it was. So your argument is not consistent with empirical evidence aka FACTS!

A rising tide lifts all boats. Thinking .com will go down in value or have less traffic is absolutely the nuttiest thing I have EVER heard. It goes against empirical evidence I just pointed to. Give that one up!

Ok?

I make points with evidence. And why would anyone even argue these points? It may work for folks that know nothing about domain names when you are raising funds, but this is nonsense inside the walls of this industry by folks that really should understand this all much better. They are coming to assumptions that are not backed up by examples of history. Like I keep on repeating now. Empirical Evidence. Las Vegas just the latest in a series proving the fallacy of this silly argument.

And we don't have to wait 20 years to see the winner. It will be evident each week on Ron Jackson's report. More Empirical Evidence. Not wishful thinking or a fallacious hypothesis. But past facts. The test holds true over and over and over again.

And just remember, most of the biggest deals are still not disclosed. Escrow.com started about 66% if my memory serves me correctly. And the bigger they are, the less chance they are disclosed. And even in a disclosure can be hidden as far as exact amount paid when you buy a company for their domain name.

Folks are free and welcome to speculate on anything they choose. Some will make money. Most will lose money. But selling on false assumptions and false arguments that are squarely against history is weak and I think does not help the position of those that use it. Hundreds of different sales strategies that are going to cause their own set of collisions.

Some are going to struggle desperately to stay above water.  Some are going to sink right to the very bottom. These are absolute givens. They are facts just awaiting time to confirm them. But in speculation you have to determine those facts BEFORE they are facts. But to do that, you must have the facts to begin with and the history to back it up. So when I am presented a false set of facts, based on false history, on the heels of .Mobi, .biz, .pro, .xxx, well then I have a RIGHT to raise these objections and questions and be on record and so do you.

I don't have to sell a thing, they do. But please raise the level of the conversation to match the reality at hand and the audience you are addressing. I would certainly be much more receptive to that level then some of the nonsense I am hearing. I do not wish for the failure of any extension. Quite the opposite. I root for their success. Their success is not a threat it is fuel. I am stunned that otherwise intelligent folks would see it like the glass is half full. The greatest success would have .com and many other extensions overflowing.

Look at my writings and you will see it is consistent with the rise in popularity of .tv. I think .tv will benefit from this. I don't see a single extension suffering. I see only expansion regardless of population. 7 billion people is not how you measure. You measure by companies and how many each of them will control. Companies at one time had one website. Now they have dozens or hundreds or thousands. THAT is the population I focus on. Those are the folks that can and will expand the most and the quickest. Many of them with decent budgets.

Why would anyone think that selling a win-lose concept comes out as a winning hand?? The world is about win-win. That is the way to get people's attention. Win-win. Show them a way to expand their online presence. Show them only positives. Anything built on negatives or false assumptions or fallacious information will eventually collapse.

And collapsing is different from failing because this is all 99.9% forseeable.

1234567890123 without any .com rings every phone in the world. there are a total of 9,999,999,999,999.

9.9 TRILLION combinations with those 13 digits. Maybe a few less actually. But in theory......

Now last time I looked you can go many times n=more than 13 digits before you add the .com. You can go to 63 I think it is. That pus a hole in their argument before I even start my argument and I can prove my argument with NUMBERS not EMOTION 63 different ways. I can have more combinations with the same 13 digits that ring every phone in the world. All I need to do is substitute one letter for a number. I can use just the letter "A" until with all the variables. Then "B" the "C". Then after I got to z I could start to use 2 letter variables. Then 3. Then all words that use up to 13 letters. Then I have not even mentioned dashes. Nor have I dsaid anything about 14 digit domain.

Smell the BULLSHIT?? There must be a math major here somewhere that can highlight what infinity might look like. I will admit, .com is NOT infinite. Tho for the purposes we use it for, it is. So please don't expect anyone with an ounce of sense to swallow bullshit. I just proved it and I barely scratched the surface. I could sit here every day for the next 20 years and I would not run out if examples when I hear we are running out of .com. Not sure if there is even a name for a number the size of what we are talking about.

Point is this is 100% fallacious. Pure and simple. What happens when I do it on a low-level like this, is the antenna goes up and you look for other fallacious arguments and you start to see a picture being developed. I am truly trying to save these folks from a Kodak moment when they go on the world stage. I think these things are poisoning the waters a bit and it is self-inflicted poison. Needless! They have stronger arguments. I hope!

Success for a gtld does not translate to anything bad for any of us. Between this post and yesterdays post, I just try to have a balanced approach and at the same time not listen to silly stuff and my job is to spotlight silly stuff so we can focus on the real subjects. Which are the extensions themselves, the adaptation by the MASSES, the reasons why without making the weak case that has been made.

.com is a phenomenon. The graph that Verisign released is another example of how hard this is going to be. STUDY that chart!! Look at the SLIVER they are all going to fight over. Wake me up when any of them get out of the "Other" category. Any of them. Registry success has nothing to do with our success.  The one that has the best chance is .web and it is no secret.

And as far as my 20 year plan and those trying to use that to cover them now. This is what I wrote as a comment on TheArtofTheName.com yesterday:

"To be honest. I could not put a 20 year plan together today given the circumstances today. The 20 year plan was for a unique moment in time. With a specific medium. That had specific parallels. And I put a time stamp until we hit critical mass. And it worked!!

I never had one before and I doubt I will ever have one again. People have to eat today with a vision of the future. But in this fast paced medium, 20 years is CRAZY! I focus on now and the 36 months in front of us as a rule and year to year as a basis for progress.

The Internet was a unique circumstance because it was the largest endeavor in the history of the world and I realized that and what the changes would look like in 2013.

But this is worse that Kool-Aid because it is laced with BS and many ignore the basic questions that are asked.

At the end of the day it will be content and consumer acceptance that decides. Not any of us. All we can do is bet on the eventual outcome."

You can see the video from T.R.A.F.F.I.C. There is no anger in the argument, there is just a disagreement among friends about where the road goes and I think their compass is not calibrated correctly. :-) The future will sort it out. They took out their wallets and are taking a risk. Bravo! The question is risk based on what? A question we get to ask when it comes to our wallets. Especially since it is hard if not impossible to point out past successes with similar products with less competition.

Rick Schwartz

And the Big Winner is??? Sub-Domains!

Morning Folks!!

At the end of the day I believe it will be sub-domains that will be the most triumphant of all. When it is all said  and done, sub-domains have more of a chance to bring order and clarity to the Internet than all the .whatevers.

There were no skyscrapers before room ran out and they had to build up. So if their argument is right, they have just as good a chance to build up, as build on .whatever. But it will be the headwinds of .whatever that will drive the building of skyscrapers. These fortune 500 companies already have their skyscrapers and since they are about branding why would they want to sheer away their power and stature by their own hands?? Makes no sense to me.

So I look at my 404's and sub-domains are #1. What are they looking for there? How did they get there? Why?

Cotton.Candy

CottonCandy.com

Cotton.Candy.com

Point is as the .com owner I have ALL variables and they don't. They have 1.

Test it yourself.

Sneakers.Nike

NikeSneakers.com

Sneakers.Nike.com

Which do you think would be easiest to teach the masses? Look what happens below. Are those links? Typos? Huh?

If Nike.com is your root, then pretty easy to go left of the dot and insert any and every product.Now I know you can do that with Sneakers.Nike.But what happens when you forget the space.Is that Nike.But.I am very confused because I am not sure if it is a typo.But probably not.I am sure it is something else. Of course .com denotes internet and a little less confusing.But choose your poison.

And a sub-domain can be divided again and again.

Recipes.Cotton.Candy.com

.com says Internet.

Why not take the 800 off of the toll-free and add something else?? There is a reason. 800 number means telephone. It means free call. It means easy. It meant in the old days that you did not need a dime in the phone booth to call an 800 number. Convenience.

.com has the same things instilled in us. The masses. Nearly 20 years of constant advertising and constant hearing of something.

The future is nothing more than a casino. But that casino works on historical and empirical evidence to tilt things one way or another.

Rick Schwartz

 

Can .whatever Make .net the Big Winner?

Afternoon Folks!!

What are the first things that come to mind when you talk about .Net?

For me it reminds me of the early days. It also reminds me of techies. It reminds me it is not .com and is the consolation prize.

It also says something about longevity as it is old and established. So .net sounds foundational and institutional while .biz sounds like a fly by night. Just saying'.

So with .Whatever that further defines and accentuates more established extensions intended or not. It does not mean that .mobi will be revived. It does mean that .net could emerge with a clearer identity than it has had before. I see it competing with .web perhaps. Of course I am sure .web wants to compete with .com.

But what I believe will happen is all the current extensions will get a second look. Some will look better than others and so while everyone is looking in one direction, don't be surprised if something flashes from a direction that could be surprising.

What happens to business when 700 gTLD's come out and the one that adds the most registrations next to .com is .net and at an accelerated pace? What happens when you add up the increases for the current extensions and their growth is bigger and faster than the growth driving it?

All I am saying is expect the unexpected. And when you expect the unexpected you don't just throw yourself into something. You observe. Kinda like the stock market. You can get killed between 9:30 and 10AM. Best to let things settle in and then take a fresh look at what things look like.

Rick Schwartz

Can Porn Save JCPenny’s and Others?

Morning Folks!!

Sex, drugs, rock and roll. The way of the world. Notice that "Sex" is first? Guess what? Always has been, always will be.

So lets see just how mainstream who pushes sex day and night can't quite go where LOTS of the customers they are chasing are at.

So my friends, please tell me what happens when an end-user finds out certain things.

Let's say on Google he spends $1000 a month and gets 100 new customers. $10/customer.

Let's say an end-user can advertise on a porn site and spend $100 and get 300 new customers. 33 cents/customer.

Tell me what that would mean to an end-user?

What would it mean to Google?

infographic_6

Here is the story of EXACTLY what it means to an end-user.

Now at the end of my 20 year plan, porn traffic will be highly desired. Very highly desired.

Why? NUMBERS!

Now many point to me and call me names because I own some adult terms. Ya know the ones they say on TV all night long.

But I don't have adult content anywhere on the Internet. Others do.

My traffic goes from me to Frank or Donny and then it goes to Google and Yahoo and a few others.

So this entire division between traffic is silly.

Go watch a show tonight on network TV and you will hear EVERY ONE of these terms.

Ass, slut, whore, porno, orgy, etc and they do it to attract their audience. No other reason.

Miley Cyrus goes on stage and tries to have an orgasm in front of the world and folks point to me owning dirty words. Are you serious?

Mainstream needs to grow up. They are past puberty now. They should be waking up soon.

And you now what happens when they wake up? It unleashes a TIDAL WAVE of new business. A TIDAL wave!

So if JCPenny and a few others really want to try to survive instead of rolling over and going DEAD, maybe it is time to take a walk on the wild side. That is where YOUR CUSTOMERS are hanging out. Dare to try!

Go check out that story!

Frame1

And it is not perfect. It is still flawed because they talk about "Impressions". So still have  a ways to go but the path is being laid as we speak.

One day that dam is gonna break and things will change in a very big way. Porn IS coming to manistream because they have no choice. That's the single biggest untapped market. The bean counters will eventually have to look that way if they want to have more beans to count and a job.

Rick Schwartz

hos_fb_cover_01  125-button02b  125-button02a  leaderboard02

wide-skyscraper02-1

 

What Elements Make an Everyday Item have GREAT Value? Become a Collectible? An Investment?

Morning Folks!!

If you were to study the markets for antiques and collectibles you would certainly see the domain market quite differently. If you understood these industries you might understand how I see things. Something that is rare MAY have value. But something that became rare usually once had tons of that item all over the place and they slowly disappeared until the realization they were virtually gone. They become from everyday to rare and THAT is where value and growth comes from. DEMAND. Demand and limited availability causes prices to rise. This phenomenon is not controllable for the most part unless you are De Beers.

This clusterf*ck that ICANN is in charge of and the delays show how poorly thought out this entire mess is. Delays are very costly to those with new extensions. The meter is ticking and the overhead is accelerating and not a DIME is coming in. But what does ICANN care? They ain't De Beers.

And what happens when for many this is the bridge to nowhere other than collapse? How does one collapse figure into the other extensions? That will be a factor. What happens when an extension collapses? Nobody can say there will be no fallout because we just don't know.

What we do know is there will be consolidation as we already see. Some registries will make a profit. But what EXACTLY does that have to do with DOMAIN INVESTING?? Collecting maybe. But investing?

And for every successful .whatever there will be a .com counterpart swallowing up possibly a MAJORITY of their traffic and business. So I am looking forward to all this cuz I see nothing but great things because of where I am positioned. Where you are positioned. We have nothing to worry about. The poor schmuck that tries to build his empire on sand may have something to worry about.

The world is about sales and if I were to have come 18 years ago with the sole purpose of flipping for a profit, I would have been SOL pretty quickly. Markets and demand have to develop. This is like watching 1900 new hula-hoops coming to market. Instead of round they will try square and triangular. They will copy the greatest success of all time and repeat it 1900 times and everyone will become rich!

Not so fast.

Does not work quite like that.

And of course you will hear some BS releases about manufactured deals less than arm lengths deals and then some will swallow the bait. I have an entire post coming just for that.

Many domainers focus on a smaller and smaller subset of less and less targeted groups of people with lower and lower  spending power and wonder why they make no money. I just think that is a poor formula with unneeded and unwanted limits.

I PRAY one of these 1900 will break out and we have the chance for a replay. But to be honest. I think the next big extension is one that has already been around for a very long time. That extension will just get a second look because next to most of the .crap that is coming out, they look pretty damn good.

If we were in Vegas, the odds makers would not give you very encouraging numbers. The odds of success if just ONE net gTLD came to market is watered down 1900 times with 1900 different directions. And 1900 companies with many sets of problems and some will go broke. Eventually you run out of other people's money. Eventually lots of things happen as failure is exposed.

Point is, study what has become valuable in the past and you will find out what a DUD looks like. There are missing elements here. It's almost folly. Now I will exclude .Brands. They can have use but it is just that a USE! Their MAIN ADDRESS will still be Brand.com. The front door. The main Entrance. The door that can still lead to all others. Including .Brand but with few or no roads to .whatever.

Rick Schwartz

 

The Best and the Brightest are Fewer

Morning Folks!!

What happens when a society fills all their employment positions with less than qualified people?

What happens when a 45-year-old High School dropout has more knowledge than the grad with a degree or 2?

What happens when one know nothing teaches another know nothing and certifies them as qualified?

What happens in a dumbed down society in the face of other societies that are not dumbed down?

I don't have the answers today. I just have the questions based on what I am seeing.

The race to mediocrity.

Rick Schwartz

The History of Surfing Waves and the Connection to You Today. Your Destiny Awaits!

Morning Folks!!

There is a reason they teach history and there is even a bigger reason to pay attention to it. "Those that don't know history are destined to repeat it." Now they figured this out in the 1700's and I am sure even before that. So what is the excuse today? One of the oldest realities that has stood the test of time for HUNDREDS of years and today what is the excuse for not understanding such a SIMPLE sentence? A very powerful and simple sentence with huge ramifications for you and you own DESTINY!

So what happens when you don't know and understand history besides repeating it? Well the biggest thing is it makes you react to false positives. You chase shadows. You live in fear.

But it is a FACT that history does repeat itself. So if you know this FACT, there are ways to take advantage of life and situations because what is to come is not that hard to foresee because it has all happened before. Just a new set of players and a new set of circumstances.

If you are a surfer this means you ride the top of the wave almost all the time. Because you KNOW that WAVE, You have seen that wave before. There are all types of waves and when you time a wave right you do GREAT!  You bend destinty in your favor.

Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz

Pigeon Sh*t Can Actually Make you go Blind! The Great Pigeon Sh*t Drop of 2013

Morning Folks!!


Want to make $1000 before noon TODAY? Then do what I do. Each morning I go into my account and shut off auto-renewal on a dozen or more domains. I look at each domain at $100 each over the course of the next 10 years with the increases etc. So each time I take a domain off auto-renewal and prepare for it to drop, I make $100.


Pigeons


We all have pigeon shit. Been talking about it for 3 years. Remember back then that the way folks made up for not having quality was having quantity? So where did all the 6 figure domain holders go? Most are long gone. Swallowed up by their own overhead. They never even wrote a goodbye letter. They just went bye bye.


Pigeon Shit can make you blind!


Pigeoncar


I have dropped 4000 domains in the past 2 years and I plan at least 1000 more. Each 1000 domains frees up $100,000 to buy ONE REAL DOMAIN.


Look, with time we learn things. Some things don't pan out. Some do. Each day, each year we get new information and the new information is what turns a domain into one worth tossing. Some pigeon shit eating domainer will pick it up and then you will have defined things even more.


I know it is hard to let go. I know as well as anyone. But what works works and what does not work is called a recurring bill. That's not an asset. That is a liability. So if your domains are a liability, wtf are you doing?


Overhead is what makes or breaks anyone or any business. Things change, things evolve, we learn and grow. Phrases used just a few years ago are now obsolete. That's what happens when you are on the cutting edge of things. You get things that get outdated quickly.


So what makes you a domainer? If you can't rattle off a half dozen impressive domains........then what are you doing? I can't tell you how sad it makes me to see portfolios with 1000 domains and not a one worth registration fees. That domainer can right his ship, but he still FIRST has to learn what makes one domain have value and another one have only a bill. Piece of glass vs a diamond. You would think one would take a DAY OR TWO to figure it out.


I am not happy to say that Pigeon Shit Farmers outnumber domainers by some 100-1. That's the number folks. 100-1. Maybe more. There are well over 100,000 that call themselves domainers but less than 1000 that actually qualify.


Have a GREAT PIGEON SHIT FREE Day!

Rick Schwartz

-----

How Much is YOUR Reputation Worth? P&G Sells Theirs for a LOUSY $30,000

Morning Folks!!


You just can't make this stuff up! Are they clueless? Are they out of touch? How do you excuse this colossal screw up? For $30,000, somebody or some department or departments PLUS their attorneys made a decision to put the reputation of Procter and Gamble on the line. For $30,000!!!!!!!!!!


And lost!


You guys fill in the adjectives. I am off the rails on this. I just can't believe what I just read. Besides that, they were getting a BARGAIN for a domain like that. $30k??!! GEEZ! How do you not call the folks involved MORONS?? And worse!?


So Mr. McDonald, what say you TODAY?? Who is responsible for this DISASTER?? Bet he makes over $30k a year! Your company has been soiled and stained FOREVER and NONE of your own products can fix this. No reputation management software can fix this. It's all on record in an official proceeding.


However you can start to fix it! What say you?? Isn't it worth the attempt? It can only get worse as the news spreads and it is spreading.


Ok, not me, then how about Cavuto? Go on his show. EXPLAIN who and why. You don't think heads should roll? Do you really think you can ignore this? What IDIOT is responsible?


This is outrageous and if I were you I would be fuming at this! 172 years came and went and a stellar brand has now been branded a REVERSE DOMAIN NAME HIJACKER! If you IGNORE this then I would interpret that as nothing learned.


Procter and Gamble (P&G) has been found GUILTY of trying to REVERSE HIJACK a domain that they did not own via an ABUSE of the governing body and LIED during the process. Saying they did $40 Million in business n the swash product when in FACT it was $60,000. That ain't just a little fib. That is misleading the governing body to influence them with a LIE! And if it were not for the attorney, Mr. Berryhill, it may never have come to light. (You can read some of his comments about the case here)


That is now around the neck of Procter and Gamble until they use their influence to PROTECT domain owners not ABUSE domain owners! To do business the right way and not THAT way! They have been doing this a long time. They KNOW the rules. But they decided to abuse those rules instead of abiding by those rules.


My question and yours now should be, HOW MANY OTHER TIMES AND TO OTHER PEOPLE DID PROCTER AND GAMBLE DO THIS TO?? HOW MANY DID NOT OR COULD NOT DEFEND THEMSELVES? How many of your 8000+ domain names have been gotten through less than honorable means?


Don't like those questions? TOO BAD! They are coming and they will continue to come. This MAY be the tip of the iceberg and I think we have a right to find out. Especially if the company does not address this directly. It's their reputation and right now and for the first time in 172 years, they don't control it.


Procter and Gamble has been a beacon of marketing for generations! It's one of America's finest companies. It HAD a stellar name. It hurts to go after a company I have admired and learned from all my life. This is not fun. Painful in fact. But I know a vaccine when I see one. I know this will be a HUGE lesson for the next guy. That's what this is about for me. An Inoculation to protect me and you and all domain owners big and small. Let them watch what happens when you get tagged with being a REVERSE DOMAIN NAME HIJACKER (RDNH).


I am upset and I have nothing to do with your company and don't own any stock in it. So if the folks that work there are not 100x as outraged as I am, that the name of a GREAT company has been FOREVER SOILED, then they are just CHUMPS that don't get it and there are 2 MEN rolling in their graves who would not be proud of this day or them. That's my opinion and I think the facts support that opinion.


ON THE RECORD FOR THE RECORD!!


Rick Schwartz



www.LEFT.RIGHT left, right, left, right, left

'www.LEFT.RIGHT left, right, left, right,
left.'


Here’s another of Danny’s pre-written posts. I think it’s
going to make him a few enemies. Oh well, probably about time he got some
thicker skin. He’s really just too damn nice. ;-)


Brutal…but nice.


Rick Schwartz


By Danny Welsh
JointVentures.com
What happens when 1800 extensions spawn
100,000 marketing campaigns using a cutesy www.whatever.whocares that we all
know will leak traffic to www.whatever.com?


Some 'brands' extensions, some 'geo'
extensions, some 'generic' extensions...each will have DIFFERENT
consequences, but all will leak for a LONG time.


If you know that, what must happen down the line? Can you
profit from it? Sure, many newbie domainers will. Stay away from trademarks and
make some money down the road maybe. For guys that hand regged dot com's 20
years ago I personally just don't see it as a smart use of time or resources
UNLESS:


1. They own the registry-- so they sell volume. Hey, Rick's
on record saying 'anything can be sold' and I agree.


2. They own
www.RIGHT.com matching for all www.LEFT.RIGHT's that get registered-- so they
profit from the leak.


All I'm saying is
Rick has given this more thought than any thought leader I personally know. And
I see human nature being the BIGGEST factor.


Drive.BMW is an example of a .brand extension, right? Those
marketing campaigns will send some traffic to DriveBMW.com-- for many years--
every time it's used in mass advertising. Don't be surprised when it also sends
traffic to Drive.COM


So if the big branded company marketing a domain name in the
next 3 years like 'www.LEFT.RIGHT' does their due diligence they will
own FIRST:


www.LEFTRIGHT.com


www.LEFT.com


In the case of the brands like BMW turning their company
name into a .brand TLD, they'd of course for the most part already own
www.RIGHT.com.


Except let's not forget about the Nissan.com's of the world.
:)


Ladies and gentlemen… it ain't gonna
be pretty.


Whoever owns UDRPLawyer.com and DNAttorney.com and so many
more descriptive domains for an emerging service sector better be prepared for
the onslaught of interest in needing to hire anyone who can help, and who will
companies turn to but those that have credibility within the world they purport
to have (i.e. the operators of generic legal domains pertaining to domaining
law).


Whoever has experience and a track record doing domain name
law from both sides of the table better be prepared for the onslaught of
clients you can grab in an exploding sector of law. Because you’ll be among the biggest winners in a field full of
losers as everybody gets on the 1-800--WHOCANISUE.com merry go round of real
life business in the 21st century when 1800 .crap extensions try to
create a second miracle and fail
.


Who will be safe from lawsuits with a precedent of decisions
where the domain owner WON against all frivolous complaints and has a generic
investing intent to point to? Who will make more money than every before? Who
will be labeled a visionary when it all shakes out and who will be labeled a
cybersquatter?


These things are all human nature. Sure, many folks are bitter that the
“500” own the very best .com domain names in the world. Hell, I was one of
them. But everybody likes an underdog story, and it’s all in who the
storyteller is and how the story is presented.


Victors write history.


Domains that look like these types -- GENERIC.com,
SOCIAL.com, PRODUCT.com, SERVICE.com, NOUN.com, VERB.com, GERUND.com,
ADJECTIVE.com, COUNTRY.com, GEOBIGNICHE.com and a few others will STAND OUT
increasingly as time rolls on.


And the guys and gals who saw the value of Hotels.com or
*any* CATEGORY.com value domain names before the masses…before the advertising
agencies…before the media…before the academics…before the ‘psychics…and before
every single “hotel” or “category” company on that planet themselves…


Will be in a position to tell the
story of struggle, frustration, patience, income, increased valuation, public
acceptance and increasingly triumph after triumph in what guys like me will
point to and say this is one of the greatest “underdog” stories ever told in
the history of capitalism.


Trademark UDRP's that increase in the next few years BECAUSE
of 1800 “.brand” and similar new domain extensions are going to hurt ONLY .com
domainers that have made money on leaks from big companies for years. Expect
the rush of .whatever to bring a huge # of '.com' decisions where the
company claimant WINS. DriveBMW.com is irrelevant to this discussion. All
trademarks are. The smart investors in domains don't buy trademarked domains
and most never have.


Every lawsuit and trademark UDRP is going to HURT ONLY .com
domainers that have made money on leaks from big companies for years. We call
those folks cybersquatters.


Expect the rush of
www.whatever.brand extensions being marketed to bring a huge # of
'whateverbrand.com' or 'brandwhatever.com' decisions where
the company claimant WINS.


DriveBMW.com is irrelevant to this discussion except as a
specific TYPE of extension (i.e. .brand) where if you think it through you can
PREDICT what is likely to happen and how they'll leak.


Many .brand companies
that have trademarks and mass market whatever.brand domain names are going to
leak to .com's that are registered by cybersquatters and never should have been
allowed to be registered in the first place.


Yeah, I said it. If you registered something like
DriveBMW.com it’s theft unless your business idea is different from the company
that matches whatever the “brand” is, and their products and services.


How many used Lamborghinis does the manufacturer sell?
Probably zero. Manufacturers can’t control the after-market sales of their
products in a resale market. So “UsedBrand.com” is going to be pretty safe
(Rick…you can remove the last two paragraphs if you disagree…leave this note in
here if you want…my research indicates these are true statements but you may
want to amend with your superior insider knowledge)


The smart investors in domains don't buy trademarked domains and
most never have.


So what happens when the media covers a growing trend over
the small cybersquatter that owns ABCBrand.com being sued and LOSING? Let them
compare that to the domain investor that time and again WINS with PRODUCT.COM
or SERVICE.COM when a greedy company tries to steal it. Give the media time and
they'll figure out the difference between generic investor VISIONARY and a cybersquatting
thief eating their fill on scraps that fall from the rightful table of a big
company.


Follow the line of thought from beginning to end game…


If you expect that these things WILL happen…and they will…


What does that do
then to the value of every PRODUCT.com? To the value of every SERVICE.com? To
the value of every CATEGORY.com? To the value of every SOCIALGROUP.com?


Think it through. Think it all the way thru the roof. See if
you come to the same conclusions Rick and I have for what's going to happen in
the next 36 months.


I say if already successful “.com” domainer folks want to
dabble in “.whatever”, well…whatever.


( ASIDE: notice how
even the guys selling it can't help but use that 'catchy' phrase
'.whatever' which they really shouldn't because it's pretty
derogatory and positioning is the name of the game!)


(ASIDE #2: I’m not
and very likely never will but if *I* were building a company selling
“.whatever” domains I'd do it from www.leftright.com and I'd set up shop at
www.left.right). I'd educate the end user about what an extension IS (because
trust me, they don’t know…the average guy knows .com and that is IT…in his mind
“www.” and “.com” ARE the same as that thing called the ‘Internet’).


So if you want to speculatively invest and buy .whatever
domains, go for it. I don’t have time for it. It'll take the few of them that
catch on less time than it took for .com to catch on because the few of 1800
new extensions that end up surviving can leverage .com's wind for 20
years...but it's still gonna be an uphill battle! Good luck.


Maybe you as a domainer hand register a PRODUCT.whatever in
2013 and your children's children will get a chance to do with those what guys
like Rick and others in the 500 can do RIGHT NOW with .com's from registrations
20 years ago. Hey, somebody's gotta win the lottery, right? But that’s a
game for a new wave of domainers. I simply cannot see one of the top .com
domain name owners in the world caring and it’s odd to me that any would try
with the exception of only a handful that are rich enough to simply hedge their
bets.


Set all the trademarks aside and .com's that are generic will go up
in value.


Faster and faster.


The next 3 years will witness the
telling of one of the greatest underdog stories in the history of business…I
wasn’t there for the beginning of the journey with the 500, but I’m here now to
tell the story.


And tell it I will. And when I tell you that the world of
business will march to the beat of the 500’s drummers before the fat lady
sings...It’s true.


The 1800www.Left.Right Domain Name Imitations coming to market
can “Left, right, left, right, left, right” and try to create a new drum
cadence in the market all they want.


For anyone seeking a GREAT domain name to give their
business a chance to Succeed.com, who opens their eyes and ears and does their
due diligence…it will become
increasingly clear in the next few years that there is only ONE “Right” choice “Left” standing for any SERIOUS
BUSINESS that has SERIOUS AMBITION to make a name for itself globally online
.


Long live “.com”!


Danny Welsh
JointVentures.com