The Rick Schwartz Equation

Morning Folks!!

Go brew a pot of coffee, this is going to take a few minutes. What started as a simple equation blossomed into all types of adventures and mis-steps and examples in real-time that absolutely support my equation. An equation that may be all but lost in the clutter of events that just had great timing and so here we are. I think the word "Clusterf*ck" is just going to be more spot on with every passing day. I thought it would happen in very slow motion, but it is accelerating even faster than I would have imagined and I suggest there will be popcorn to replace the coffee by the end of this post.

We all see what we see and we all know what we know.  I come to conclusions early based on certain elements that fit in my personal equation. This equation filters out CRAP, HYPE and NOISE. It filters out the losers FIRST and spotlights the winners NEXT. That makes my job easier and pisses off the ones that don't win and/or don't count as much. Those folks have a tougher job to convince me and other people whether domainers or end users to buy into their vision.

Each new gTLD has or SHOULD HAVE a separate vision.  Is that not a reasonable assumption? I have learned many do not as stunning as it sounds. So is it my fault for asking about the "Vision" thing?

I have been writing this blog post for over 2 weeks now and I have been deciding whether to post it or not. Meanwhile I just keep working on it and whether it sees the light of day will just depend on who knows what. But events just keep unfolding that dovetail with what I have been saying.

I have written extensively about the new gTLD's EARLY to be on record and to be REAL and that showed a vivid difference in how and WHEN  I view the world compared to many others. And in my view of the world, nothing happens until a sale is made and I did my best to explain that. And while people throw around invisible sales numbers without actually ever making a sale, well, that is a MAJOR red flag to me. I know how hard sales is. I know how hard sustaining sales is. I know how hard growing sales is. I also know the difference between a solid sale and a weak sale. A sale that will survive and a sale that will collapse or end up being a loss.

I see things early for a reason and it is based on an equation.

I have gotten several emails about Moniker.com and their problems this week and folks want me to write about it. Well I did, 3 YEARS ago when I transferred all my domains out. It was not my first post on the subject as you will see. The Moniker mess happened 3 YEARS ago but the train wreck happened last week. Folks had AMPLE opportunity to heed the warnings. I still have about 14 domains there. Mostly .tel. But thousands were moved away. 

There will be a lot of elbows flying in gTLD land as we have seen with the firestorm of last week with Negari and Network Solutions, that just continues and now the plot thickens as Berryhill, Corwin, Negari and the ICA join others in the industry for a circular firing squad.

The skirmishes will intensify and broaden as there are a lot of competing interests. There are a lot of ponies in this horse race and the rails on either side are not enough to contain them. So you are going to see a vivid example of some raw nerves between other gTLD operators develop. You can't see this coming? Really?? REALLY????

Why is this a sure bet???

SALES BABY! SALES! They NEED sales. They are drowning without sales. They are choking for cash as it is in many cases. That is THEIR reality.

Not only that, but If you play in a game you set up with no rules, then don't complain when somebody breaks the rules or extends the boundary lines. Where does HYPE turn the corner and become DECEPTION? There are the nuances that are in play here. The debate is wide and the fallout is still in progress. The answers are murky. Deal with it. It's just part of the clusterf*ck that will play out in time.

I also understand that many bloggers are under a lot of pressure from different camps to write positive stories about them or gTLD's in general. Some have just about lost their entire credibility. Even Howard is pressuring me not to post things I am about to say. But I could give a rats ass about getting another sponsor or not. I won't sell my soul for that. If they can't figure it out, so be it. I will say what I BELIEVE and not what my FRIENDS want me to say.

Hats off to those like Konstantinos Zournas, MIke Berkens, Ron Jackson,  Kevin Murphy and others that report whatever facts they can find and I know for a fact that the pressure these bloggers are under is IMMENSE. And they are getting it from both sides. 

Sales have to be created and WE and everyone else has a RIGHT and a DUTY as well as an obligation to be skeptical if you are a serious investor.  You should EXPECT to have you feet held to the fire. Especially since we already had prior evidence that only a fool would ignore of how previous tld's have fared in our short history.

How do you create a sale?

You start with NEED, WANT and DESIRE. And in our case you can add SUPPLY and DEMAND. Other variables as well as you are about to see. And there are even more obstacles than I am going to discuss that is why I wrote so many posts coming at things from various ways and all of them had huge pitfalls. These are compounded obstacles and I am not sure any can survive them all. Especially when they are blind to them.

That said......

How do you create sales when you don't start with NEED, WANT and DESIRE from the right party and the supply is unlimited and the demand is almost non-existent and self-made??? And keep in mind, over 80% of all registrations are by domainers and the Registry's themselves or closely held companies. aka, Bag of smoke. Some say 90%. They say 33% and that is just laughable.

How do folks KNOW they need something they don't even know exists to begin with? This is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to exponential. Many icebergs because everyone at least gets hungry. Of course business may suck if you are a hamburger stand setting up shop at a vegetarian convention and you have no veggie burgers.

Hold on to your horses, it will all make sense soon to anyone that can have a warped thinking process like me.

This is NOT bashing gTLD's. It may as well be zoombibie stands. The RESULT would be almost the same.  What's a "Zoombibie stand"? A Zoombibie stand is as foreign and unknown to you as gTLD's are to the end-user.  Got that? Do you need one??? How long have you lived without a zoombibie?? Really?? Whose job is it to sell you that Zoombibie that you don't know about and probably could care less about? What color is yours? What happens when a competitor comes in and they have to SPLIT the zoombibie market?? Are only distributors buying zoombibies and they can't resell to the end-user?

The commodity you have does not matter. Coffee shops, hamburger stands. Lemonade stands, pizza joints. You name it. The thing with gTLD's, they are exponentially harder and few want to take the time to truly examine why.

The keyword is CREATE.

Zoombibie has to CREATE sales!

But to create sales, there has to be a DEMAND to begin with.

And you do that with REASONS.
REASONS are the SEEDS of PERSUASION.

(Reasons have to be valid. In sales, when you get caught in a lie, game over)

But first you have to CIRCULATE.

And you have to know how big your AUDIENCE is.

So that you can TARGET them properly.

Assuming there is DEMAND

We know there is DEMAND by several groups. The Registry, the Registrar and the speculative domainer. The speculative domainer is not the customer of the Registry as they have made pretty clear. But the same Registry is depending on the market makers who are the speculative domainers to make things happen. Sounds like a HUGE disconnect to me and many are starting to pay the price for that wrong-minded thinking process.


How big is the zoombibie audience? You still don't know what a zoombibie is? This isn't your grandfathers zoombibie. This is a much better and bigger zoombibie that will allow you to do more things. Just don't ask about what specific things they are. Way too deep.

Sorry for the caps in this post but this is more of an equation and a theory than paragraphs. And you also have to know that THEY (the consumer in any form they come in) are in control of all of their destiny's. If they don't eat the smelly fish or the rotten meat, the restaurant closes and goes out of business. PERIOD! No matter the hype.


Nobody on this planet woke up this morning looking for a zoombibie. But you NEED it because I said so. Isn't that a good reason?? 


Today alone we say .Berlin start giving their extension away for FREE! When you can't sell something, you give it away. They more than doubled their 48,000 registrations in less than 24 hours. EXPECT others to follow suit. That is definitely going to screw up the marketing plans of other registries that are already choking for cash. It gets UGLY from here on out folks. Can't see that one either?? REALLY??

 

So if you subscribe to this quasi-equation, and I do, then many will be able to see what I see and why I don't take MOST of the gTLDs seriously at this point in time.  That does not mean I am right and that does not mean I can't be PERSUADED.  But my job is not to persuade myself. That's THEIR job and they need many reasons that are VALID to get there. Tough questions are survived by straight answers and that is how you tell a solid and good product or service. Then I might buy a zoombibie. Right now, I can live without it. 


This just means that I have a method behind my handicapping that has served me well for decades and I am just sharing my mental process of one of the ways I might reach a conclusion or form an opinion. But that does not mean I can not be persuaded. But that only comes with solid information and benefits. A VISION that holds up against reality and scrutiny. Imagine a car salesman being afraid to answer questions about the vehicle he is selling. He wants to make a quick buck and you are looking for long-term reliable transportation. Not exactly a win-win. Once he lies about one thing, you can only do one thing. LEAVE! And that is exactly what most folks would do.


Someone wins, someone loses. If you invest unwisely LIKE SO MANY DO, you are going to be at the wrong end of that equation. As long as you are prepared and EXPECT to lose 100%, then you are okay. No worries.  But expect to lose 100% TIMES however many years you keep each domain name.


Folks want to hear what they want and they want to ignore what they want. Folks are afraid to state the obvious or even truly examine both sides to get to a proper balance without forcing the wanted outcome. To me .ceo,.rich and .horse are extensions that are in real danger of dying on the vine. They will be joined by many others. How can I be so certain??? Please just study the equation. It is a roadmap. Look at the STALLED daily registrations. .Rich has had THREE registrations in the last FIVE WEEKS! STUDY the numbers, they are pathetic at best. This is their debut. Demand does not look very high and a new broom sweeps clean.


Just days before the original launch in January I posted this on my blog about .Club and how they were the ones doing it right and now you can look back and see how it DOVETAILED with REALITY! It appears they have the most human placed registrations.


Figuring it out and getting it RIGHT EARLY counts and it is the equation above that makes picking winners and losers EASIER! Cutting to the chase has value. Knowing the answer before the question is asked has value. Great value in some cases. And I am not conceding that the most registrations = the most valuable gTLD or the one to invest in if any. But this is the yard stick many seem to be using for the sake of discussion. So it is our only measuring stick at the moment since there is little else to point to. Just keep this yardstick in mind as well. .mobi as a Registry is a total success. .Mobi as an Investment is a total failure. Can't folks LEARN and understand that equation?? I could give a rats ass about the success of a Registry. We are talking about investing. Until you separate the two, good luck going broke!


With 1400 new extensions those that think they will all survive and then also be meaningful are either not dealing with reality or have not been in business long enough to understand how business works. How sheer numbers work. So if they were to LOGICALLY look at the 1400, and right now we have about 125 LIVE, they can already see which ones are in DANGER of either dying on the vine, never getting any recognition or traction or just not being meaningful or relevant at all. PigeonShit gTLD's for a lack of a better phrase. This is the first heat of TEN segments to get to that 1400 number. I think I clearly picked the winner of this phase. Until I see the CONSUMER actually EMBRACE these new extensions, it's all inside baseball. The consumer hold all the wildcards.  There are several layers of consumers. But I am talking about end users and the actual person on the street.


So the first thing to do logically is remove the DEAD HORSES OFF THE TRACK!


Did you watch the race on Saturday? Imagine that race with 1400 horses in the SAME gate and the LOGICAL first question would be how many would be TRAMPLED in the STAMPEDE getting out of the gate!?? How many other horses will trip on the dead horses and also go down? Just logical questions. The ultimate question is who will win the race? I guess if you were LOGICAL you would say to yourself that I may not be able to pick the winner right away but if I pick the top 10 horses and isolate them I have a much better chance. Most bet on one horse and MOST lost. Even the gtld tracker tracks the top 10 and all the "Others" are lumped into one category. "other". Why?? Who came in 10th in the race n Saturday? Nobody knows and nobody cares.


And that means that 1390 gTLD's will be NAGS  Or maybe it will be 1300. Not a huge difference. Most will be meaningless is the only point I am trying to make. MOST. The majority. So that means they did not die on the vine, they are just as irrelevant as .aero and .travel are today along with many more that nobody wants to really invest in. How many times do you have to see the same SAD movie and still hope for a HAPPY ENDING?


How many want to bet on California Chrome to win the Belmont and the Triple Crown today? Place your bets! He LOST! Sorry. We all rooted for him to win. But he LOST. REALITY! See that is not being against gTLD's folks, that's called not being stupid and dealing with reality. We can do the what ifs all day long. But he lost. Yes, he lost because of a GASH inflicted by another horse and we will see that with gTLD's as well.  So if a gash did the damage to change history imagine what 1000 dead horses will do to change it.


Sorry folks. There is no happy ending to this movie. Get your Kleenex out!


And then all this wraps right back around to:

How do you create NEED, WANT and DESIRE?

The keyword is CREATE.

And you do that with REASONS and BENEFITS.

REASONS are the SEEDS of PERSUASION.

BENEFITS are what is important to your customer not what is important to the seller.

And you make the sale with a LOGICAL argument to support your vision.


What grade would you like to give the marketing so far folks? Invisible marketing seems to be on top of that heap don't ya think? If you don't buy into my zoombibie, you are a moron and you are old school and you are an idiot. lol. GREAT marketing!


Efficacythe ability to produce a desired or intended result. I don't see that as a widespread ability when it comes to gTLD's.  Do you??


Besides all these GIVEN headwinds, it is my belief that many of these guys already missed their window of opportunity to market their extensions. As even Michael Berkens has said many times, these are the weaker extensions for the most part. So that means when they DID have their day in the sun they were incapable of taking advantage of THEIR "Unique Opportunity in time". The train is gone for many of them already. I hear they did not have the money to promote and all the rest. Whose fault is that? Whose lack of vision was that? Whose going to be holding the bag when it is all said and done?


Sure there were ICANN delays. Well in business you have to expect things like that and be prepared for it.


So that TRAIN leads DIRECTLY to consolidation. They can't see that one either?? Really? REALLY????


See in my silly view of the world I think it is unreasonable to see why .ceo would be a good investment because no coherent argument can be made for the viability and a REASON to PARK money there. And when the registry comes out with "Their" reasons, they don't dovetail with reality. Everyone laughs and dismisses.


Now I don't mean to pick on .ceo all the time but it is the most glaring example next to .Rich which is just too funny to even spend any time on. And I think .Horse has no better chance of being important and worthy to INVEST in as betting TODAY than California Chrome will win the Triple Crown last Saturday. In any test you usually look and set aside the top and bottom scores. .Web for me is the top score on the chart and .Rich is the bottom score on the chart for me.Actually the bottom is CRAMMED with losers yet to be declared DEAD ON THE VINE.


And let me also state for the record that number if registrations is not the yard stick for measuring success of ANY gTLD.


CONTENT is the key to the survival of any extension. And in this cases, BETTER content is going to be EXPECTED.  So when you look at this onion you can peel it so many different ways and into different conversations. Just be prepared to hold on to those as long as I have to hold on to .mobi. I have great keywords. Big deal!


And there are so many obstacles now after that. Consumer acceptance is always the key to any success. Beta was better. Did not matter. Ask Sony. So these obstacles and facts can even contradict each other. And my main point is the path forward is not straight it is splintered and the pitfalls immense. And as we have seen and as I have said for over a year now, one bad deed with one spills over to all. Anyone doubt that one now?? We have just seen the beginning of this show and the abuses. I am sure a site will pop up that will chronicle all the abuses that are taking place. I have already lost count. It WILL get MUCH worse.



I always started with my parents. They were my test cases throughout most of my life. They represented Mid-America and how the majority would react to any given new thing. Their input was more valuable than anyone else. So I do miss that part of my equation.



You can see once you talk about gTLD's one thing leads to another and the whole thing just has not been well thought out and with 1200 MORE to go, the ABUSE and the HYPE has not even started. I have written over a dozen posts just in regards to the horse race and how important and how hard it will be to pick the winners at THIS stage. And what happens to these "Weak" extensions when the strong ones like .web come to life?


We are an intelligent group and we get to ask tough questions and if folks don't like it because they have no answers, that is their choice. I say the numbers are pathetic. Let me define it with this. The day .Web comes to market (and I am not touting .web, but it is just the Odds on Favorite) is the day you will see pathetic defined.  That is an extension we will be counting by the millions and they will LIKELY have more registrations in the first few HOURS than all the gTLD's in the first few MONTHS. Just a FACT waiting to be BORN. Can't see it from here?? Really?? But you can see the value of gTLD's in 10-20 years?? Sorry, that dog won't hunt with me. Don't talk about 10-20 years when some folks doing the talking can't see 10-20 hours, days, weeks or months in front of them.


Is there money to be made in the new gTLD's by domain investors? YES.  But Registry's making money on YOU have nothing to do with your gamble/investment. Chances are more money will be lost 100 times over than made. We can only predict and see how things unfold. But ignoring and not examining all sides of an issue because of peer pressure...........really? Investors NEED to be skeptical regardless of the WANTS and DESIRES of others.


As I said yesterday and will repeat often: "NO DOMAIN INVESTOR has ANY OBLIGATION to support ANY new gTLD whatsoever, so don't buy into that nonsense. On the other hand the gTLD's have an obligation to treat domain investors a lot better than they have.  They need us not the other way around.


We had a superhighway come to be in the early 1990's. It was well thought out and had already been around for a very long time for military use. It had to work right. They built a super-duper worldwide interstate roadway system that changed the world. Now we have over a thousand interstates coming out and many have no real destination, direction or even a plan. If you go down one of those, you are GUARANTEED to run out of gas and you will have no money left to buy anymore. So as long as you are prepared and can afford to lose 100% or more of your investment, you are fine and good to go. But picking the winners is still the single biggest hurdle and only 10% of the extensions are now out. Multiply all the nonsense we have seen by 10 fold and you will see this will not be an easy road. A road that can only get harder to navigate and there are consequences most would just like to ignore and not talk about. Sorry, as investors we DO get to talk about it and your job is to address those concerns if you can.  And if you can't, just get out-of-the-way.


All that said, I will be looking and searching for successes and when I find one, I may place a bet or two. Time tells all and the shakeout we will see is absolutely, 1000% forseeable.  Maybe waiting until the dust settles is not the worst strategy as you will avoid being sucked in by the noise and hype. That way you get to sit back and enjoy the show. I DO NOT see gtld's as a threat. I have seen them as an opportunity from the get go. Brings a lot of eye balls our way. But on the way to opportunity, there is going to be a lots of events. Hype, noise, crashes, clusterf*cks and a lot of dead horses and it will eventually be known as SURVIVOR! Popcorn anyone?


And there is a flaw in this Rick Schwartz equation in this case. There seems to be no end to the pitfalls, obstacles and the dividing lines that are coming. Lots of folks entering the crossfire. Welcome to my world fellas.......better have a thick skin.



Rick Schwartz



69 thoughts on “The Rick Schwartz Equation

  1. Bul

    Well you’ve told themthem. I just pity the newbies spending bags of cash on these gtlds in the to someday become the “Rick Schwartz”.

    Like picking stocks, one might need some creative accounting (the early pioneer) to get early adopters lead in the flock or be Damn lucky to stand out…meaningfulness won’t help in domains as their is just way too many alternatives.

    When markets become over saturated, it became expensive to do business and standing out becames the stuff of only legends…legends, that remains to be seen looking streaks continue.

    Reply
  2. Josh

    What if the end result of gTLD’s isn’t that people are programmed to type any one new extension.

    What if the result is they are programmed to type something.something, even if the gTLD doesn’t yet exist. Like home.inspector or race.car or car.parts.

    What if big corporate brands drove that by advertising .nike or .nba

    Not saying that will happen. I’m just wondering out loud.

    Reply
  3. Altaf

    Rick, great post. you taught us, ‘don’t do anything’ is better than doing & spoiling the time and energy. .xyz is a propaganda, bound to fail. I am waiting to see.

    Reply
  4. Howard Neu

    Great analogy and reasoning. Apparently there are all different kinds of Zoombibles that are flooding the market. The more that people hear about them being available, the more that they will say “Hey! I want one of those Zoombibles! Everyone else has one!”

    Reply
  5. Homero A. Gonzalez

    Its taken… don’t waste your time checking… zoombibie.com, guess who registered it? Anyone?… lol!!

    Reply
  6. Leonard Britt

    While registration statistics and growth trends for any TLD are interesting, they do not necessarily indicate which is a better investment. There is no disputing that short, meaningful, commerce-related .COM domains are easier to sell than those in other TLDs. However, if one wants to evaluate the investment merit of a TLD, one can look to aftermarket sales (NOT REGISTRY SALES). If every week I see DNJ reporting a dozen sales of $5k and a few for $10k in .Whatever, then perhaps end users see some reason to brand on them and they might be an OK investment at the right price. If you never see aftermarket sales for a TLD, that is a warning sign. And when are we going to start seeing meaningful aftermarket sales in any new TLD?

    Reply
  7. DonnyM

    What more can you say to anyone? In regards to marketing: Let’s say they wanted to compete for the keyword “Domain registration” in adwords. Well get ready to compete against 30 or so competitors and pay 5 to 8 bucks a click. .
    Anyone can buy a $2000 dollar set of callaways golf clubs, but can any of these new extensions hit the ball. They look good but they won’t get past the 3rd hole.

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  8. Robbie

    It took all of a few months for them to start giving these names away for free.

    Nobody gives anything of value away for free. Bad enough to hear from end users well you paid $10 for this domain, now I will have to hear you got this domain for free, oh wait, there are no end user sales, so I guess I won’t

    I have noticed M.Berkens has gone quite quiet in the listing, and purchasing of their GTLD’s, seems they have starting pulling back their funds, as they have pushed premium labeling to mediocre domains.

    End users do not care about which registry will go, if this THEME of navigation get’s adapted anything with Action.KEYWORD will have a marketplace, that is a big IF. So far it looks like a bunch of guys trying to cash in with launching a whole bunch of extensions that only DOMAIN COLLECTORS Want, or guys who missed out on 1995, and are looking for a new gold rush.

    Sorry, if it is to good to be true, it usually is, and I saw namecheap had a .club promo for like $4-$5 last week, really it is going from bad to worse. Smarty Money

    Reply
  9. Jeff Schneider

    Thank You Rick for the PowerEquation. The movie is projecting and extending the giant pool of money chasing after Online destination addresses. Can this be bad?

    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)

    Reply
  10. UFO

    Yes, it really is about sales.

    But its not just the sales of the actual domain its all the cross selling that can be done as well, although if your business model is selling to retailers then you wont have that connection with joe public to undertake that.

    All these gtlds are like the classic IPO issue where you’re unlikely to make anything with reasonably perfect information. The .com profits etc should be used as a notion of how these gtlds will do.

    Anyway, its going to be a major train wreck that sucks money out of the real .com world. But everyone will wise up eventually and .coms will jump in price.

    Reply
  11. Jeph smythe

    Rick you managed to hit the nail on the head again! Always be ahead of the curve of these so called Experts and have to watch this un fold, knowing its going to not work… I think I figured out why you said a Zoom Bible stand, it is a joke about the new .ZOOM GTLD. Am i right? Good on you if so!! Thanks for the great posts keep up the good work. Thank’s.

    Reply
  12. Robbie

    I just got an email saying I can register up to 100 .berlin names if I meet local requirements, what a gong show.

    Reply
  13. John

    >”I think I clearly picked the winner of this phase.”

    Me too, same one. :) Now I’d just like to see them activate their whois page to remove a big obstacle and difficulty there in the search and planning process, and keep the distribution of what remains fair and clean for us little guys who support them.

    >”See that is not being against gTLD’s folks, that’s called not being stupid and dealing with reality.”

    And another good way of putting that is, that’s called just being honest, true to one’s real beliefs and straight about it to others, regardless of how much style and color is added to it. One of the things I’ve really come to appreciate about you. :)

    ——————————

    On an additional note, I’m guardedly optimistic that one of the winners of this entire “new gTLD” phenomenon and the release of “.UK” might be .US, especially in terms of (finally) greater public awareness and desire. I think it may indeed already be happening based on my experience with increased interest and offers on .us domains. As a case in point, just recently I even sold a quite long multi-worder .US for a solid mid-$x,xxx based on a completely unsolicited offer. I considered not even saying anything since .US appears to be flying well under the radar and barely even on anyone’s mind if at all among domainers, but then again at some point it’s time, so why not? :)

    Reply
  14. Max

    I’m thinking major consolidations of registries over the next decade. As few as two or three mega-registries ‘administering’ 80% or more of the gtlds.

    Other than domaineer types, I think most sales will happen slowly as agencies explain possible upsells to business clients. Thus the pressure towards consolidation to stay afloat.

    When university marketing/business programs absorb the existence of the extensive (and perhaps thinned) new set of gtlds and are making their students aware… Then maybe we are on a path toward utilizing the myriad new strings in a sensible way… But that seems a ways away, and still doesn’t include the home stretch.

    Still, I’m a fan of the experiment. Its def very interesting! I even registered a few, and I think they’re way cute. ;)

    Reply
  15. theomahaguy

    Most of the new gtld’s I see coming out has to be someone’s attempt to make money off domainers and then run for the border. (dot)network? It’s hard enough to sell a dot net.Talk about confusion. I can only shake my head in disbelief that someone thinks some of these gtld’s have a snowballs chance in ….

    Reply
  16. Stunt Double

    Are gtlds still around? I thought they all died the day 50 Cent accidentally said .com instead of .club. Still laughing over that.

    Reply
  17. John

    When I was a young lad, the phrase “xyz” meant “eXamine your zipper” and we would often say it jokingly if someone had left their zipper down.

    Now I would suggest it may more appropriately mean “eXamine your Zippo” as in Zippo lighter, and check whether you have been smoking too much weed with it. I say this because “.xyz” is to me possibly the most head-scratchingly absurd TLD of all that I have seen mention of. Either the person or people behind it are delusional, clueless, or just pure gamblers who can afford to throw away the time and money involved. If not gamblers, however, then in all honesty I can only ask a World Wide Web sized “what were you thinking?” That’s complete honesty and candor, by the way, not to bash either .xyz or new gTLD’s. To me this extension is simply unfathomable.

    Reply
  18. Tom

    Rick, you are a genius! I’m gonna register .Zoombibie for $185K!

    Everyone’s gonna want one. Besides, dot com is dead. Anybody that is somebody will let their passé and meaningless .com drop and immediately register a .Zoombibie from me for only $30/year with $30 annual renewals.

    Yeah, it’ll cost a little more, but it’ll be well worth it. Not sure why, but I’m sure my marketing department can come up with a reason.

    I will hire celebrity spokesmen to promote it. I will advertise on the Superbowl.

    Yeah, I can taste the money now. Oh, what’s that you say? You own the .com and welcome me to promote it so that you can benefit from my perpetual bleeding? And you will be setting a wildcard to intercept all of my extension’s email? Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

    Damn it Rick, why didn’t you want us that these gtld’s are totally worthless crap!

    On second thought, maybe not.

    Reply
  19. Ed Keay-Smith

    Hi Rick

    Great post (and maybe one of your longest), I see you own Zoombibie.com, does that mean you are going to apply for the right of the dot and setup .zoombibie?? It could be a winner.

    Thanks for keeping it real Rick.

    Cheers

    Ed

    Reply
  20. onlinedomain

    Thanks Rick.
    It was a great read and an honor to be mentioned in your post.

    I am not under pressure though. I have accepted that I will have no New gTLD sponsor. Either because they don’t do any marketing or because they are a bit afraid of my blog. And although I get a lot of traffic both from domainers and other people, I have 0 new gtld sponsors.
    Thanks
    Konstantinos Zournas

    Reply
  21. Danny Pryor

    Zoombibies are huge in Zimbabwe, especially the ones with the auto features.

    The main points of this blog can be summed up pretty simply, in basic economic terms. The first is obviously the supply – demand issue. What we have is a lack of demand for an over supply of gTLDs. The next point you hit upon can be summed up with this: Some supply can create its own demand, but there has to be a reason. That’s the need, want and desire part of the equation.

    Unfortunately, few among the representatives of the new gTLDs are really going to want to heed the great reality. Their mission is to build a ship with holes and try to sail it.

    Poor bastards.

    Reply
  22. Zeewy

    @Rick,

    I am f-in pissed at you. Someone told me that domains were good investments so, when the gtld’s came out, I jumped in head first and went nuts. My wife and our three kids each stayed up late for several nights in a row and registered lots of gtlds. I don’t have much money and things are now very tight since I now find myself sitting on a pile of .crap

    Not entirely your fault. I know you were the one who cautioned against pigeon.shit, but I saw this as a buying opportunity. Looks like I was wrong.

    I’m not mad at you for failing to caution me and your thousands of other readers. Lord knows you tried on numerous occasions. I am upset because you don’t blog as much as you used to and I miss your writing.

    Reply
  23. Bul

    I think there is some kind of buyer remorse fuelling domainer rage too. Some refused to get in but then they couldn’t stomach the fear of being left behind when they saw those registration numbers climb. At the end of the day, they had eem all on their master cards. And then they learn that they had been scammed by Daniel and his associates. Now you have cry babies all over the place.

    Reply
  24. lyn

    I never understood why .co didn’t take overflow for .com. Easy to remember. Either .com or .co instead of all this confusing crap that has come out.

    Reply
  25. Duane Higgins

    Rick,

    You created quite a firestorm here. All of that you have written is true. It amazes me that the registries are launching without any real discernable marketing/development/application plans. I have posted repeatedly over the past year and a half regarding the potential of the new gTLDs.

    Here are some of my posts with suggestions for the gTLDS that I think could be useful and there is still a chance that this catastrophe could be salvaged:

    http://www.newmarketnames.com

    Reply
  26. mansour

    Rick Now I know why you are successful
    I lost some money in Las Vegas this week end but I had a lot fun, losing it on the new gTLDs will only give me misery.

    Reply
  27. Bill Sweetman

    Rick, thank you for always reminding us to ask the unpopular questions, to listen to our instincts, and — gasp — apply some common sense. This carnival show is just getting started, and we’re all lucky to have front row seats.

    Reply
  28. NEIL

    Welcome Back King!
    ILikeCom!
    ILoveYouCom!
    DotComKingdom is the strongest, most efficient IncomeGenerator ever…

    #1. ICAAN and USPTO should eliminate “Confusingly Similar” from their Policy, which gives a strong everlasting unfair monopoly power to the greedy zombbiebies on their dictionary malicious trademarks, eliminating the competition and natural capitalist opportunism;

    #2. Registrars should post a warning to the new domains registrations, like “Attention, minefield, traps, almost confusingly similar with a sharky’s unfair TM!!! Do not register!”

    Reply
  29. kwan Nyathi

    Hi Danny , the mention of Zimbabwe kind of through me off a bit, couldn’t tell if you were serious or not but is that really true? That’s my home country!

    Reply
  30. John Boy

    The blogger that lost the most amount of credibility is Acro. What a fool. He is carrying the water for these guys and pops up everywhere to defend them. Nasty guy if you don’t agree with him!

    Reply
  31. John

    Okay folks, scroll up to my comment of June 17, 2014 and read what I said about .US in relation to all these new gTLD’s, then read what Frager just reported today on The Frager Factor:

    “Plus a news Wall Street start up seems to be making a play for premium dot US domains. Does the influence of the new G’s suddenly make the world stand up and take notice of what is, in my view, the most untapped, underrated opportunity in domain branding today–dot US as in Frager.US.” (The Frager Factor)

    Reply
  32. NEIL

    King Rick,
    Good morning,
    Congrats on your site’s traffic!
    Yesterday, 6/20/2014, Ricksblog.com had confusingly similar traffic as INTERNET.COM
    How much did they pay for it?
    How much?

    Reply
  33. Acro

    I’m only nasty to trolls with unverifiable aliases and hidden agendas. You fit both profiles. I have less than 100 gTLDs to Rick’s 500, so who’s the fool, John Boy?

    Reply
  34. John

    P.S. However, as is being done with .UK now, I would very much also want existing .US holders to be given the chance to register their domains in .USA first, though definitely not for as long as is being allowed for .UK now… May be a tall order if it’s ever released as a “non-cc” gTLD, but would still want that… :)

    Reply
  35. Jeff Schneider

    Hello rick,

    The levee has broken, Direct Navigation adopted universally. Thanks Google! 6/23/14

    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)

    Reply
  36. Jeff Schneider

    Chinas Consumers Clamor for the Real Thing US Goods !
    jeff schneider

    Independent Marketing Analyst/Strategist at UseBiz.com / (.COM ) URL Centric Marketing

    A newly formed trading consortium opens gateway to china Consumers to feast on Global Goods. 6/25 /14

    Reply
  37. UFO

    Oh yes, I’d just like to point out that etsy.net now advertises on Television as etsy.com

    If you are going to spend real money on advertising then better do it with a .com as that means the internet.

    These new gtlds dont signify the internet so by definition a prefix of www. has to be used which makes the string LONGER than just using a .com

    E.g. EstyShop.com versus http://www.Etsy.Shop

    Try teaching the masses that your gtlds mean internet relative to the billions spent on .com (and each gtld needs to gain traction in the minds of consumers).

    Reply
  38. Jeff Schneider

    Hello Rick,

    I would love to instate my photo on your site? How can this possibly happen? By the way are you excited yet?

    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)

    Reply
  39. Jeff Schneider

    Hello Rick,

    I just got back from drinking really good beer from Widmer Breweries and have a story to tell.A friend told me he just bought , no telling when, a .COMBrand and how surprised he was to register Betterthanyourwallet.com. A security play domain .COMBrand addresss.
    They are still out there people.. Don’t buy the hype, register .COMBrands when in doubt try it. Its the smart path to success.

    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)

    Reply
  40. Jeff Schneider

    Hello Rick,

    Try registering .COMBrand first you may be amazed of combinations still available.

    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)

    Reply
  41. Jeff Schneider

    Hello Rick,

    The hyping sirens of Madison avenue are deafening peoples senses. Wake up and think outside the box. Register newly configurated .Com Urls when in doubt, its combinations that are plentiful enough for 8 billion people, try it Mikey likes it.

    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Grou) (Metal Tiger)

    Reply
  42. Jeff Schneider

    Hello FS

    Well here we are face to face on an issue that troubles me and others. Every where I surf I cannot seem to get rid of iniregistry cookies.
    We all know the caymans is a hideout for tax evaders and just plain manipulators. Frank you have enough don”t you? Your insatiable appetite precedes you and may just topple your apple cart. I have as well as others suffered your arrogance and find it suffocating. You should have taken my advice when you could have but know your voracious ego and appetite consumed you. Sorry to expose your world beating ego but it will not last long Good Luck because you have in our opinion deserted your base.

    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)

    Reply
  43. Jeff Schneider

    Hello Rick, Believe me when I say thank you for not censoring !

    There is a major blog portal that seems bent on not allowing my introduction to the domaining and investor community, They seem to have fallen prey to the security (fear based closed) to factual disclosure crowd). In the name of so called security.
    If my blog is blocked you will know why. If Farcebook is accepted whats up with that?

    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger) (Domain Master)

    Reply
  44. UFO

    One last quip, is that Rick is absolutely correct. Its all about sales. In EVERY sphere of commerce SOMETHING is being sold. If you’re not selling then your offering sucks. If you dont know the intended pathway to making that sale is (USP unique selling point or whatever) then you are taking needless risk.

    The only gTLD that has had a good strategy to date really has been .club

    Reply
  45. Jeff Schneider

    Hello Rick,

    Copying Domain King ? We are being accused of copying you,when we really are just echoing the parallel universe. Of course we take advantage of Ricks radar system.

    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger) (Domain Master)

    Reply
  46. Altaf

    Hello Rick,
    I observed lately that almost all the new gtlds being registered by & large.
    Gratefully,
    Altaf

    Reply
  47. UFO

    Seems to be some competition for .london
    Read in paper that there are 40 preregs for nightlife.london and that houses.london (real estate keywords) are far more popular.

    London is actually a world class brand.Geo’s of the worlds best cities will have value for sure. We’ll see Rimmel.London and all the rest using their URLs.

    Reply
  48. jon levy

    UFO, If what you say is true and becomes a reality, what happens to the value of london.com or any other single word tld’s that are relevant in said geo domain(s) space?

    Reply
  49. UFO

    Jon levy, well I dont think london.com would appreciate any more than it currently is. London has become the worlds top city as a brand.Hence plenty of 2nd liner type fashion houses etc would easily go for whatever.london as a stepping stone before migrating to the .com

    Perhaps the benefit for .comholders is they will see the potential end user buyer of their domains a long time before the offers role in. Once a new start up with an unknown track record had to get the .com,now they can try with a new gtld. Perhaps in some ways that will filter and vet the most suitable buying the .com

    A coy in the market making good money will generally offer more for a .com as its less risky and the play is easy to see in terms of business devel relative to start ups on the generally less generic/category killer names.

    Reply
  50. Greg

    This is the general trend looking forward. People need to stop thinking of the right hand extension as an individual branding, and start thinking of it as part of the websites name. With 100′s or 1000′s of different extensions the cumulative effect will be an impact on the perceived naming structure of the internet.

    Reply
  51. UFO

    My guess is the first changes we will see are in social media areas where hyperlinks do the work. Over time those hyperlinks will educated users but the premium domain will always be the short brand followed by a .com

    new gtlds will be useful in marketing but generally in practice it will always be the cctld or .com

    Reply
  52. Mike Tester

    Hi Rick! I hope I’m not double posting. What do you think about the new decentralised internet? Selling .p2p – No domain name seizures, no spying and they are sold via auctions – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeweF05tT50&feature=youtu.be

    There is an option to sell ! domains. So you could own Candy! and Candy!com on the decentralised internet. I think that is much more marketable than .p2p
    Would you agree? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=733121.msg8285347#msg8285347

    Would be interested on your thoughts!! Even if it’s just ‘that’s all rubbish’ :)

    Reply
  53. James

    Content is king, that is assuming your web-sites demographic is semi-intelligent people who don’t have all day to skim through crapola to get to the good stuff.

    Reply
  54. Rameesh T

    While registration statistics and growth trends for any TLD are interesting, they do not necessarily indicate which is a better investment. There is no disputing that short, meaningful, commerce-related .COM domains are easier to sell than those in other TLDs.

    Reply
  55. Jeff Schneider

    Hello Rick,

    The fundamentals for high quality Brandable Franchise quality .Com properties are improving with the Gtlds introductions. This may be the last time to shift reasonably into high quality .Coms.
    As for the stock markets, this Secular Bull Market is of average duration. Buy select quality Institutional Favorite Growth Stocks on any and all pullbacks.The Credit Pendulum will swing both stock and digital assets ever higher.

    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)

    Reply
  56. Jeff Schneider

    Hello Rick,

    The current market correction winding down, in this current Secular Bull Market, is purely technically driven( NOT Fundamentally driven ) The Fundamental Economic Underpinnings are portending a Strong Buy Signal. Extreme Buying Opportunities in both Digital and Domestic Equity Market Assets are currently at once in a lifetime levels. JAS 10/15/14

    Reply
  57. UFO

    Common Rick, 6 months near, is a long time for you not to write an article.

    Encore needed….

    Reply
  58. Jeff Schneider

    jeff schneider
    Independent Marketing Analyst/Strategist at UseBiz.com / (.COM ) URL Centric Marketing

    Our Fundamentally driven forecasting model points to a strong Domestic U.S. Equity Market through mid 2017.
    Important Nuance = Not the end of this Secular Bull Market in place, just a meaningful Correction, then resumption of this Meaningful Secular Bull Market in Equities and Digital Assets. JAS 10/24/14
    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)

    Reply

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