Very Smart, but no Experience. How to Spot Failure in the Making

Morning Folks!!


In life you either think about a worst case scenario or you really have not done your job. That is why you have fire drills. That is why they have life preserves on boats. That's the reason you have a fire department and an army. The best result will never hurt you, the worst result will. Many things on the path to a worst result than you expect will hurt you and your business. Maybe it is that I live in Florida and until the last moments you really don’t know how bad ia hurricane will be. So do you do nothing and put you and your family at risk? Do you do a half assed job and hope you don’t regret it? Or do you prepare for the worst and hope for the best? There are plenty that fit into each category. We all have our comfort zone. I just think the little effort on the front side is worth avoiding the pain and loss on the other side. I hope my preparation was un-needed. But that will never stop me from protecting life and property and taking the time to do it right. So to stay ahead you have to look ahead. Think about the impossible, the ridiculous and then work backwards from there. They just released a poll this morning that showed that over 60% of Florida residents do not prepare for a hurricane when one is coming. Human nature married with laziness? How would they feel after the fact if there 4 year old boy was killed because they did not make the proper precautions and take it seriously? Regret lasts forever!


Folks, we are in trouble for a number of reasons, but the thought of being saved by very smart people is folly. If smart people were the answer to everything we would have a test and instead of electing a president we would just appoint the smartest guy. We learned long ago that just does not work.


So save the day. Very smart people are now in charge of everything everywhere. But smart people with no experience are not people to follow. The chances of them getting it right are nil. Would you want to get on a plane where the pilot scored very well in the simulator but never soloed in a real plane with no help? How about a surgeon and this is his first heart transplant? There is a big difference between book smarts and street smarts. When you have both, you do great things. Like Sully the pilot when he landed that plane on the Hudson.


So even if things were to improve economically, those clutch hitters are not in a position to take advantage and sustain it. They will likely be at a cocktail party or in anther endless meeting, or looking for a higher paying position or appointment when they really need to be at the helm and getting their hands dirty.


What we are going through is a akin to threading a needle. Threading a needle while walking on a tight rope and fire breathing dragons are on each side of you. That is why my posts are all over the place. Laced in all this is great opportunity. But you need to survive to reap those opportunities. So you focus on threading the needle and the pitfalls while looking to seize opportunity. The geniuses having meeting after meeting aren’t even in the game. They’re not on the field. They are not on the tight rope. They are faking themselves and everyone around them, out. We are going to pay the price. You can’t grind up capitalism and expect it to look the same on the other side. That’s physically impossible. But since people don’t look far down the road they don’t see the seeds we are planting today are going to be responsible for some very bad things just a few years down the road.


Just remember one thing. While it looks like the “Government” is paying for everything, their slight of hand will prove it will soon be us that are paying and suffering long after the banks and auto industry are fixed. Fees and taxes will go up and by the time it hits, all those in Congress that put us in this pickle will be long gone.


Look at the companies doing well and you can usually attach a strong name and personality to the company. Apple, Microsoft, Dell, Oracle, GoDaddy. Then look at the companies in trouble and tell me the big name there. GM, Chrysler, Citi, AIG. Usually some figure head or corporate raider just in it for a few years to see how much they can fleece the company for. Now they are going to be replaced by a government bureaucrat or a board of bureaucrats that never ran a business. Let’s see how that works out.


Sorry, but where we are headed is not rocket science. It’s about numbers. It’s always about the numbers. But in this case it is about the REAL numbers and when they try to bend, distort, fudge, play, and then lie about them, well it is only a matter of time. The numbers PROVE that it is a matter of time. Numbers have no personalities. They are just a basis of reality and reality stings when you cover and pimp those numbers with rose colored scenarios and best case projections. Plug in the REAL number and you too will see what I see. The fallout will manifest itself in the next year or two and then within 5-10 years you won’t even recognize the place. Income is always king. Income adjusts to current conditions better than anything. So your income may be safe, but your empire will be located in a different looking and downsized world that is much less secure. Human nature prevents most people from studying the numbers and following the fallout and impact. They get hung up on emotions and that dog just won't hunt if you are looking for real answers and not just crossing your fingers and wishing..


Homelessness is not a huge problem at the moment but as sure as the sun rises tomorrow, that is going to change. What does it do to an empire when it is at risk? Hungry, hot, homeless,……..what will that look like? How will that manifest itself? We know the answer, but who wants to go there? The pitfalls on the horizon are more than I can even speak of. Time is about to write some very nasty history. But don’t believe me, believe the numbers. Just not the numbers you are being fed. The pre-pimped numbers before they are married to assumptions that are so ambitious that those rose colored glasses provide. In life you AIM for the best case scenario, but those that don’t prepare for the worst will always be surprised and always be behind the curve. 50 steps ahead trumps one step behind. That steamroller only flattens you when you are behind.


My blog posts are not islands. They all thread together. There is no way I can even begin to discuss a subject in one post. They have to be taken in totality. There are 2 things out there right now. Opportunity and peril. Opportunity for those looking for opportunity and peril for the masses that work for somebody else and are not in control of their destiny. Things may look better in some sectors, but the masses have yet to even feel the brunt of what is to come. The answer are not where anyone points to. The answer is in the unemployment and the variable is how large that will grow and how LONG that will last. If folks get a job in 6 months, they will make it. If it takes them 36 months, we have some major pain to go through and that will lead to other problems. Unforseen pitfalls that are easy to see if you look for them and invisible if you close your eyes to it.


Human nature and the masses prove over and over again that they don't prepare until after the fact. When it is too late. When they are 'Surprised' that the hurricane was as bad as it was.


Here is a story that just came out this morning. DO THE MATH!! Don't believe anyone. Believe NUMBERS!


Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz




11 thoughts on “Very Smart, but no Experience. How to Spot Failure in the Making

  1. Gazzip

    Another Scary but very realistic post Rick.
    Britain is also well screwed just now but it likely to get worse, most people have lost all faith in Bankers & many of the Politicians (MP’s)
    Home repossessions up around 50% in the first quarter and unemployment levels the highest its been in about 20 years so things are looking pretty grim.
    The Newspapers are full of scandals about Bankers & MP’s creaming off money right left and centre so its only a matter of time before the public snap and the sh** really hits the fan on the streets.
    There’s quiet a few MP’s stepping down but I really don’t think the general public are going to accept that as being enough this time.
    Still, I’d rather live here than Florida – There’s far less Guns on the street!
    Good luck all

    Reply
  2. Kevin

    The Government runs the biggest shell and ponzi games in the history of the world.
    The $63 Trillion in the article probably isn’t even accurate. It’s probably more like well over $100 Trillion in debt obligations. With numbers I always double the worse case just to be safe in projections.
    The only reason the games have been able to go on for as long as they have and will continue to do so is because it’s run by the Government and they can keep creating as many levels of shells and ponzi layers as needed to propogate it all because they control the electronic printing presses at the Treasury. One button and like magic another trillion is added to the monetary supply game. It’s the ultimate platinum credit card where they can increase their line at will instantly. Who controls the Fed? Exactly!
    And you’r also right on about leaders. Having government bureaucrats who have zero auto industry experience running GM, Chrysler, and all the other companyies is going to be a disaster even worse than at present.
    Like I say, it’s every man for themselves right now. You can’t bank on government or anyone else. Just take care of your own businesses and work around all the insane economic obstacles we’re dealing with and being created that will impact the future.

    Reply
  3. Owen

    GL falls because of $5 gas and peak oil. Look to the cause of collapse (&wars)–peak oil

    Reply
  4. UFO

    Dow will be between 10,000 and 11,000 at years end.
    The US is so big that nobody will let it fail.
    There is most definitely a 2 speed economy appearing as I have already alluded to, basically unskilled and Blue Collar workers are not needed if the US and other Western Countries allow unfettered imports and offshoring. The way to counter act all the problems is 2 pronged (And as some examples). 1) Wind the national debt down with inflation (If you owe money get into some quantitative easing) and keep interest rates low to depreciate the dollar (so you can regenerate your export capability) Then 2) Start engaging in some covert restraint on foreign imports, i.e. legislate for higher environmental controls and recycling of manufactured goods and ensure US industry holds all the patents in advance. (That’s some good barriers to entry for a start). That way the public will get its money back on bankrolling US carmakers and be”environmentally friendly”.
    Seriously, everyone is running around like the childrens fable”Chicken little” (look it up). The Sun will rise tomorrow and the houses that stand will still stand. Its just volatility.

    Reply
  5. UFO

    Just had a look, and it seems Disney has done some cover of”Chicken Little” and completely reorientated the English fable.
    “Chicken Little”” is a story for teaching courage.
    Don’t be a chicken little. Don’t be afraid. The sky is not falling.
    http://eleaston.com/chicken.html

    Reply
  6. william

    Will we one day empower the domainer. Search engines make money, Hostings Co’s make money, PPC marketing and Advertising Co’s make money. What about the Cazillions of domain in cash parking, maybe making pennies. It’s not a secret the cash parking industry has flopped. Can we do better Rick? I could show you if your intested.

    Reply
  7. william

    Rick, we welcome your advise and expertise, our company will launch a new internet system, soon to replace traditional CPM and PPC Advertising, To big to disclose to much. williamblairpinc and legal team welcome your advise, Wm

    Reply
  8. Rob Sequin

    Rick,
    Another thought provoking article.
    While I was reading this I thought about how the government might tax domains and websites.
    The government now taxes homes and land with property taxes based on the assessed value of the home or the land.
    Imagine if the state and/or federal government started taxing domain owners based solely on the appraised VALUE of their domain?
    Pretty scary huh?

    Reply
  9. Peter

    You lived through Mount St Helens, Chernobyl ….. through quite periods of growth & development, The mathematical theory of chaos possible explains more about financial disorder than government decisions.Be grateful your great swimmer.

    Reply
  10. Peter

    meant to follow up before but no time !! Some will find this of interest: state of economic theory as a science:
    The Economic Manhattan Project – The Videos:
    from IMO the most intellectually stimulating website on-line http://www.edge.org/

    Reply

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