Morning Folks!!
My defining last ever post on gTLD's.
I love how people trying to sell something try to speak for everyone. I am told people will adapt to the new gTLD's. Now I agree that society is very adaptable. The keyword there is adaptable. They can learn anything. Even flying jets. So without doubt that power is there.
Here is the side of the equation that they may have a very hard time with. ADOPTION. Before you adapt, you have to adopt. If there is no reason to adopt, there is no reason to adapt. Got that??
Adapt : to change your behavior so that it is easier to live in a particular place or situation
: to change (something) so that it functions better or is better suited for a purpose
So you might ask the question "Is confusion something I want to adapt to and adopt as a new way to navigate the net?"
That might be the question.
See, if it were done methodically and logically to INDEX the Internet to find what you want quicker, you might adopt and adapt. When you find out it may be the opposite, do you still get the same result? Come on!
That directly connects to need, want and desire. That chain breaks every time.
Everyone raise your hands that want to be confused? What is the need, want and desire level on confusion?
Some do make a living out of confusion.
I talk to as many people about this as possible. Smart people. People seeing both sides. But I swear there is the disconnect and I think it gets to the entire motive of all this.
I am sure you are all bored and would be happy for me never to mention those 3 words. Need, want desire. But whenever I ask that question and fill in the buckets, the end-user ain't in the equation. They get run over by those 3 words.
1. ICANN. Yes, they DO have need, want, desire because they are making money! Loads of money. They also keep themselves relevant by their control. So when it comes to ICANN, they CLEARLY make the bar of all 3. NEED, WANT, DESIRE and that is what those three little words mean when attached to REALITY! So let's never lose track of the REAL reason this is happening. End users? They could give a rats ass. The more confusion there is the more important ICANN is. So I hope you see the picture. CONTROL and MONEY. They need it, they want it, they desire it. They pass the test.
2. Lawyers. Yes, they have a need a want and a desire because they can make money. The crossfire is going to be off the charts. They pass the test.
3. The Registry. Yes, they have a need a want and a desire because they can make money. They pass the test.
4. Registrars. Yes, they have a need a want and a desire because they can make money. They pass the test.
5. End users. Can you really answer the same way? We agree they need to make money. That's why they are in business. But the need, want and desire can be met in different ways and their way may not work the way some have painted the future. I just don't see that vision. I am really struggling to see it or I would not put my thoughts out like this. They DO NOT pass the test. But they sure are being spoken for.
What I have been doing is sharing my thought process as I come to conclusions and decisions. I think that most would have to agree that if there are a 1000 of any new item coming to market you might want to focus on the winners. The top 3. The top 10. Wouldn't it be logical to eliminate the ones you think have little merit?
I am sure there will be a success or two or 10. Maybe.
But I am also sure of another thing.
If this is the Kentucky Derby and they squished 1000 horses in a starting gate meant for 18, then chances are many get trampled right out of the gate.
When an application is withdrawn and nobody picks up that gTLD, we can't even say died on the vine. It was aborted. How many have been aborted so far? Why?
As I stated in an earlier post, all we need to do is figure out the top 3. The top 10. The top whatever you deem you need. But do they really all matter?? I don't think so.
There is no question you can create need, want and desire. That's a very tall order in an arena where there will be NO ORDER. Lots of intersections. Lots of crashes. Lots of confusion. Lots of overlapping. Lots of underlapping. Lots of crossfire.
I have never been afraid to be on record. And as I mull this over, I see dead ends for end users. Ya know, the end-user that everyone cares so much about.
$100k for a .whatever. Really? $250k? Really? What will be the premium on auto.parts?
And you mean to tell me for $100k a company can not find a .com to fill their need and do it safer with less risk? Really?
I keep looking for this dog to hunt and I keep coming up with a skinny and hungry dog. But I will keep looking. My ONLY objective is to find answers. But I will say one thing, I do feel like I have been wasting valuable time talking about this when I could be hunting around for those $100k .coms that the .whatever guy is gonna need, want and desire with any degree of success or even lack of it.
I think it a much safer $100k to invest. Maybe I will overpay for that .com. It may only be worth $75k. The other might be worth $75. My stomach can't handle gambles like that.
Rick Schwartz
PS: And on the title of the post about "Last Ever", Just Kidding. :-)
Here is tomorrow's post.
Observer
Apart from .com, .cc will be soaring higher than the new whatevers. WHY NOT? Yes, WHY NOT?
Aron
Good post.
I like to hear both sides of the argument.
I’m glad this isn’t the last of your gTLD writings.
Aron
New TLD Pigeons
You’ll love this one Rick :)
What the new TLDs will feel like to .COM domain investors here in the next year.
http://youtu.be/scgO8Vfh1qU
.
steve
How about it Rick? What’s your take on Observer’s observations on the .cc? Does it have a chance aside from .com?
UFO
There is most definitely a need, want and desire by end users.
But everything is a function of price and attributes.
Many of these registries don’t have a clue; you only have to look at the pigeon shit extensions they went after when they could have selected better extensions with far more commercial application. As ONE small hint, did they say do an extract of all the .com domains currently registered that end in their new gtld? Like *parts.com where * is the wildcard; which would give the total potential universe, because if its not already been registered as a .com then it really is pigeon shit.
Anyway, most of it will crash and burn; we’ll skin the dead cats on the bounce.
Rick Schwartz
More need, want and desire for a Facebook page. Exponentially.
steve
lol. Pigeon shit everywhere. Better have your umbrella, lol.
Jeff Schneider
Hello Rick,
Many Techy Webmasters will use the gTLD derivatives as starting points for start-ups.All gTLD Derivatives are based on a starting point, to reach the end point of a .COM Status. The many gTLD Derivatives will be a huge spawning ground for future .COM Franchise Address purchases. We .COM holders are looking at a huge Cash infusion which will spurr competitive demand. Happy holidays are ahead.JAS 12/8/13
Gratefully, Jeff Schneider
Dennis Bo Møller
Your blog gave me some lovely tips about domain research, thanks for putting it out there! :)
UFO
@Rick
Ok, if auto.parts was available at reg with normal .com type renewal fees would you buy it? Yes. Hence, lots of these new gTLDs have value. Its just a matter of what value.
Value in use is comprised of many factors, E.g. if the SEs are going to have fair application for indexing then some 30% of traffic is EQUAL to a .com.
Domainers imho have not much to make at this early adoption stage of new gTLDs as the registries are basically taking the potential benefits. These new gTLDs are like IPOs and the Registries like owners and underwriters, the .com was a one off and loads of value was given away as it was run by techies rather than business.
ivorytrader
My Defining Last Ever Post on gTLD’s… would you be willing to double dog pinky swear that this is true. don’t matter… still gonna read your blog.
Altaf
Hello Rick,
Nice and exclusive post.Thanks for that. But I found one word in your post “INDEX”. This will help answering all questions and speculations of new gTLDs. Will the new .whatsoever be indexed by SE?
Aaron Strong
“My defining last ever post on gTLD’s.” .thankgoodness!
just kidding…..gTLD’s bring’s the comical side to domaining, and laughing is good for everyone.
If the new gTLD’s were on the hit show “Shark Tank” I could see Mr.Wonderful saying “Stop the madness” as Mark Cuban passes out.
mwzd
You’ll reach 10% of your audience, as against 100% via your blog.
The Facebook algo sucks.
The new ‘follow’ system might improve it, but can you see yourself going to each of your friends / likes pages and changing it?
McGaz
I don’t see where this confusion comes in. Yes, at the moment, a website will most likely be at x.com or x.countrycode. You can guess at which one it is, or you can just type in what you’re searching for into a browser and trust the results. Google is immensely successful because you CAN trust the result.
Most people, in fact, do just search for what they want and perhaps bookmark pages they regularly visit. Those that guess will soon learn. If Google tells me the Ricks.blog is the most likely result over ricksblog.com then I’ll click it.
I think most domainers are naturally skeptical about the whole thing, simply because it will change their business and those that don’t adapt will fall behind. It’s pretty easy at the moment… .com’s and .countrycode’s will yield good profits because there’s very little viable alternative choices. It also means that, for consumers, all the best domains are taken or are parked and being sold for ridiculous prices. Consumers want and need a relevant domain to make the most of the internet and if you’re not on the internet then you’re most likely doing something wrong!
Some of the gtlds do sound stupid, others good, but if a registry is hosting a number of them, do they really need to sell too many of the stupid ones to make a profit?
Overall, I think it’ll be a big success and the next batch will include a lot more than 1700 applications! The big failure will be the decision to allow the porn domains, which will enforce defensive registrations and the likes of .sucks, which will encourage cyber bullying unless priced very highly. Icann will need some of their vast fortunes to counteract all of that.
Tony
Title should be “My Defining Last Ever Post on gTLD’s for 2013”
I’m sure there will be more in 2014.
:)
Jeff schneider
R. E. = ” I think most domainers are naturally skeptical about the whole thing, simply because it will change their business and those that don’t adapt will fall behind. ”
The simple truth is, is that consumers are actually, even more skeptical than domainers as you call them. Techies will adapt to gTLD Derivatives simply because they fail to understand the strategic marketing advantages inherent to the Universally accepted .COM Franchises. Techies may adapt to the gTLDs initially, only to adopt the far superior marketing tool, a universally accepted .COM Franchise. JAS 12/8/13
Gratefully, Jeff schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)
Franky
5. End Users. Most end uers can’t get a decent name today because the good .com’s are held by others. They NEED a good address and can’t find one. Lot’s of us (commercial registrants) will WANT to get the corresponding name to one of our better names where it makes sense (porno.link) or the corresponding name to a name we just sold for a lot of money (88888.link) or to the name that just makes sense (Phoenix.Link, myhotel.link).. Price moves the market and at a low enough price everything will sell. They will only sell low once though. The first to mine and register the good ones will make the money, and those trading will make the money. Some registries in this game will do worse than some of the future registrants. This is a real time of opportunity. We should all be making lists and checking them twice.
Zan PR
Amen, Rick.
gtld = fail
Jeff Schneider
R. E. = ” This is a real time of opportunity. We should all be making lists and checking them twice. ”
R. E. = ” But I will say one thing, I do feel like I have been wasting valuable time talking about this when I could be hunting around for those $100k .coms that the .whatever guy is gonna need, want and desire with any degree of success or even lack of it. ”
This is a proven Winners mind Set.
Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)
UFO
I know one thing, everyone in this industry that has .com words that are 5 Char and less that have high potential to be made a future gTLD name then just hold out for the next round. If some 5000 new gTLDs are applied for then 1) Future gTLD applicants will sniff around for the matching .com in advance and 2) If your domain comes up at the next ICANN lottery draw then $$$$$$ time.
I’m still amazed for all the millions laid down for gTLD applications some of that didn’t go into buying the matching .com.
I’ll need to write up a strategy that .com holders can undertake to profit from gTLDs that is ok re UDRP and trademark laws, because I can see some what I’d call legal arbitrage… or maybe its white hat in the shadows.
Matt W
Not wasting time Rick – investing in working through it with all of us.
5. a) End users that are marketing, copywriting, & creative types. Yes – they have a need, a want, and a desire because they can show how creative and individual they are, win awards, and get Likes so that they land the next big ad campaign, make money and live a fantastical existence. They pass the test.
The point I made at TRAFFIC was that new gTLD’s look visually good, they’re clean, short and to the point. Yes, there will be confusion, but it’s the kids they’ll marketing to.
Chadi Ghaith
Love the adapt vs adopt terminology… I totally agree with you Rick ! Plus, what happened to ‘the shorter the better’ maxim, i mean who would wanna type blablablbla.whatever ? And those who can’t afford to get their hands on bla.whatever and they’re up to choose btw blablabla.whatever as opposed to blablawhatever.com (of course blato thepower10.com all the wayyy)
Jay
Hi Rick,
Please read the blog link below and share your opinion of the effect of mobile native apps on the need for domain names.
http://blog.semilshah.com/2013/12/02/a-tweet-about-mobile-that-took-on-a-life-of-its-own/
Jay.
steve c
Even if you don’t adopt you have to adapt. It is change that people are most resistive to.
dot com rules,
sc
Brandfishing
Very Good Post Mr. Rick. I believe .com will rule the Domain Industry for more years to come. If .mobi or .travel or .xxx did not have that much of a success, I don’t see why the new ones will do.
Countries like India( where I am from and which will be a huge market soon , I believe ) are just becoming aware of Domain industry and learning about .coms. I don’t think they will learn about the new gTLDs anytime soon. It will be very confusing.
Kassey
Confusion breeds opportunities. Thank you for the great debate, folks.
Fred Mercaldo
Bingo. Your reasoning spells it out loud and clear. Rick, I don’t know you personally, but I could not agree with you more…..
Red Bull
GTLD=Good To Lose Dinero
chris barnes
Nice conclusion, really got me thinking actually :)
Bilaal Hussain
Nice definition for sure, great read thanks! :)
Sabrina Khan
Yeah thats the most difficult part about an online business really is to adapt!