Afternoon Folks!!
The new gTLD demolition Derby is in full swing. It's hard to fathom just how TERRIBLE these domains are doing but hopefully, the following graphs and numbers will help.
As you can see from the graph below GTLD's have found a CLIFF and they are falling off it right now.
Growth for the period of November 2019 till TODAY in February 2021 has been ZERO!! GTLD's are back to November 2019 levels!! Imagine 1000 companies trying to sell something nobody really wants and COMBINED can't even get to a NET GAIN of ONE! It's almost impossible!! Call Guinnesse's cuz this may be record-setting!!
So there is 2021 for ya. Below we will show what today looks like as I could not find a single registration but we did find nearly 1.4 MILLION drops on just the top 10 LOL domains! Now about 29.5 Million Total and melting like the witch from Wizard of Oz!
It is starting to look like this every single day. Domainers that drank the kool-aid and finally threw in the towel.
Below is a graph of what I would assume is a Domainer BUYING about 7000 .Tattoo domains in 2019 and you will see them all dropping 1 year later. I could not fit the entire graph it was more important to show you the BUYING from 2019 then the graph that goes all the way down, today.
I could do this all day long with extension after extension. It's ugly! They are not even flatlining. They are bleeding and they are bleeding heavily.
So how many of the new G's are owned by domainers vs END-USERS. It would be my best guess that OVER 98% of all new G's are in storage by domainers trying to hang on.
Then there is the .Club HYPE!! PLEASE! It's ass backward folks! Just because clubhouse took off?? It's not HouseClub.com. If there was ANY beneficiary it would be .House. But .CLUB?? That's why so many domainers FAIL. They are ass backward. My WhoreHOUSE.com is a bigger beneficiary than the entire .CLUB registry! How do so many "Professional Domainers" get this so wrong. I think it is pure desperation!!
We have witnessed an epic marketing failure the likes of which have really never been seen before. 1000 new extensions and 1000 losers. Congrats!
I stated years ago (2013) that this was going to be a "Demolition Derby". IT IS! It's a "Clusterfuck". IT IS! Here are all my blog posts with "CLUSTERFUCK" and most talk about GTLD's!
In the meantime .com domains have continued to be more and more important and of course prices have reflected that. When I look at the top 10 new GTLD sales each week on DNJournal.com usually 6-7 slots are taken by legacy extensions like .net and .org. Those 2 extensions are the winner as I predicted YEARS ago RIGHT HERE in 2015.
If I can see this garbage coming 5 and 10 years in advance, what the hell is the excuse for not seeing it now in light of ALL the evidence?? I articulated only a FRACTION of the pitfalls. I wanted to be on the record. It was an epic lesson in foreseeable failure.
The registrars for the most part made out like bandits. They were bandits. They swallowed up MILLIONS of domain investor dollars like a vacuum cleaner. How many total drops?? TENS of millions. Maybe HUNDREDS! I don't blame them. They had bags of smoke and their job was to sell and market them. Foolish domainers looking for the "Second coming" got sucked in with dreams of riches but most went broke. The smart ones learned. They will chine in on the comments I am sure!
This failure was easy to spot because in my 50 years of business I have NEVER EVER seen a product with so many pitfalls. EVER! It was and remains the single biggest business clusterfuck I have ever seen. The only thing left is the funeral. And with Frank Schilling auctioning off his own GTLD's, the new GTLD era is over!! Matter of fact, it would have never taken off at all without Frank.
Have a GREAT Day!
Rick Schwartz
Bill Hartzer
I see this as definitely a correction in the market. But there’s still a chance that the number of registrations will go back up for certain TLDs. For example, we’re seeing a lot of good .CLUB domains getting registered.
Pepp
Flowers.mobi ?? What is the status on that one?
Rick Schwartz
The status?
You are still an idiot.
That’s the status!
RaTHeaD
good answer.
David J Castello
Rim shot! Rickles would be proud :)
pepp
I was being half serious, not kidding.
You spent $200k on it at auction I remember it like it was yesterday …
And we never heard about it again … like me I have wasted thousands on new GTLD before I learned to stop … hard to do.. more like 20k-30k (.biz has been decent to good) .info toilet bowl … .ws was shit
KT
The numbers were inflated from Day 1 because of free or almost free registrations on .top, .icu, .ooo and other shitty/cheap strings. If you look only at the total number you miss the bigger picture. Take a look at tlds end-users actually use and you will see the growth. Look at .app, .dev, and the hundreds of Donuts, Radix tlds. Almost all are growing.
https://ntldstats.com/tld/app
https://ntldstats.com/tld/dev
GoDaddy ngtld registrations show exactly how ngtlds are doing in terms of end user popularity
https://ntldstats.com/registrar/146-GoDaddycom-LLC
John
You got fooled by the numbers yourself.
Google’s .app, .dev and .page are not heavily used by end-users as you claim.
The numbers are grossly inflated with hundreds of thousands of non sense domain names.
Just a few examples : on the same day (but those massive adds happen on a regular basis)
-9 hundred registrations from nb101.app to nb998.app
-another 9 hundred registrations from tt101.app to tt998.app
Anyone taking a look at the full zone files of these .app, .dev and .page registries will see the numbers are very far from what they should be.
There should be an investigation on this.
KT
Take a look at thefutureis.app to find end users on .app
.dev .page are also extensively used in their niche.
In an extension with several hundreds of registrations it would be impossible to not have nonsense registrations like the ones you described.
Snoopy
Registration volumes falling, .Brand’s being dumped, aftermarket sales dropping year after year. This isn’t how is was supposed to be 7 years in!
Bobby James
.what
Dan
Total registrations is not the best metric, IMHO.
After excluding the domains that were reserved by the registries themselves, and the domains that have exorbitant renewal fees, the universe of new gTLD domains that I would consider investment-grade is very small. Maybe 1,000-2,000 per extension, maybe less (excluding “generic” extensions like .app or .xyz).
Those that knew how to pick the winners have probably had decent returns, for the most part. It is definitively a difficult game to play, probably much more difficult than investing in .com.
Snoopy
For the people buying New TLDs no metic is ever suitable.
When the numbers are obviously bad domainers like to skirt around and deny them.
Vincent
Well, Rick, you should’ve known that ntldstats reports only zone statistics. And these are FAKE – flooded with “just for stats” domains especially in the beginning and especially for certain TLDs.
And don’t be biased. We all know you’re a .com investor, but come on. Most of the new TLDs suck (having only a couple of great names), but there are new TLDs that are great and are doing great, like .app or .shop. Using a boring and long non-premium .com instead in 2021 is a suicide.
2020 was BY FAR the best year for new TLDS. And 2021 will be bigger.
“the new GTLD era is over!! Matter of fact, it would have never taken off at all without Frank.” – LOL :D, man, you’re blind.
steve
I feel sorry for all those newbie domainer folks who lost serious money investing in these new gtlds.
Out of the hundreds of extensions launched, which ones will be viable in 2025?
club?
app?
global?
casino?
Mike
What happend to all those multi million dollar .link
.club deals signed in China in 2016?
Indropcatch
Wondering what new gTld’s will survive after this global meltdown by mid of this decade.
Rubens Kuhl
New gTLDs are still suffering from discounted registrations at previous years. Until those melt down, total will be going down. It’s unclear at this point at which level balance will be reached, but relevance, or lack thereof, matters more than DUMs.
KT
The way I calculate it, “legitimate” registrations are about 15-20 million and growing at a healthy rate.
We will never reach an equilibrium that shows us actual demand though since with so many extensions it’s natural for many to offer free/$1 domains (ex .icu) and continually inflate the numbers.
Mike
Here is the thing nobody is marketing them, there is mass consumer confusion, now ex icann cronies own the space and are jacking up renewal, rip gtlds
Jose
I think many of us have bought gTLD extensions, some have done well and others have not.
What they lose dock was logical that it would happen and many would disappear, although looking at this list I have been surprised by the extensions that are Trademarks https://data.iana.org/TLD/tlds-alpha-by-domain.txt
Mike
It’s dead money, operators would not be selling their extensions if they were making money or having a future, check out franks no reserve auction for sale.
Expect ex icann execs who control donuts now to Jack up prices and further kill the space.
steve
My bet is Verisign will launch .web after all the rubbish new gtlds have been put in the garbage bins —
still curious which ones will survive.
I believe .club, .app, .casino still could be viable for a while
.club because the team have done a good job of marketing (disclaimer: I own maybe 2 .club domains)
.app some decent aftermarket sales and adoption by end users (disclaimer: I own about 12-15 app domains)
casino because it seems everything casino has value in the domain world (disclaimer: I own 2 .casino domains)
But bottom line: glad most of my portfolio is .com
Jeff Schneider
Hello Rick,
gTLD owners are in (Fire Sale Mode). Make no mistake this is just the beginning of the gTLD melt down. Focus on registering Ultra Short two word descriptive (.com EPAs ) See : https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/mother-all-tax-shelters-really-jeff-schneider/ JAS
Samer
Rick, you wont participate UNR’s $0 TLD no reserve.
Auction.link
Buy .link to compete with Verisign’s upcoming .web!
Samer
Jeff Schneider
Hello Rick,
We know Global demand for gTLDs is waning and the realization is setting in that to attain Global reach the Standard for doing so, Traffics through (.com EPAs). JAS 2/6/2021
Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger) Former ( Rockefeller I.B.E.C. Marketing Analyst/Strategist) (Licensed C.B.O.E. Commodity Hedge Strategist) ( Domain Master) ( UseBiz.com )
Jeffrey Sass
With all due respect, Rick, I think you have missed the point with regard to Clubhouse and .CLUB. The Clubhouse app is literally a club of clubs. Many people have organically decided to brand their rooms and clubs on Clubhouse with a .CLUB domain because it makes sense. They use the domain to establish a promotional presence outside the Clubhouse app. Examples include Gary.club, TNTM.club, and many, many others. It’s got nothing to do with “house.” You may recall my comment about a “twerking moment” back on the infamous Traffic Panel :-) Perhaps Clubhouse is a bit of a “twerking moment” for .CLUB. Stay safe and healthy! Best, Jeff
Frederick
Great advice from the Domain King. All Hail the King of Domains! You have always been a great inspiration and have always been transparent and helpful throughout your success. We appreciate you Rick!