I really think the BIG gamble comes down to whether the new gTLD's will Distinguish a BRAND or isolate that BRAND. And that question MOSTLY applies to .BRANDS. Now that gamble for them is not huge and companies will always find inventive ways to use a .Apple or a .Dell. But many of the brands will keep their .BRAND on a shelf for potential future use or even internal use.
So they can distinguish themselves as .Apple but there could be a downside as well as it could isolate them. But I don't think so. I like .BRAND. I just have very mixed reservations about .WHATEVER as this is the real .CRAP shoot. Plus we already have some substantial evidence as far as success and values when compared to .com. The confusion factor. They are FORCED to switch back to .com as you can read here!
This is NOT opinion. This is EVIDENCE and as business people we MUST know the difference between opinion, sales and propaganda or it is costly if not dire.
When ANY company loses 35%-61% of their marketing efforts on CONFUSION, they can either change course QUICKLY or go out of business. BOTH of these companies did just that. They had to read the numbers and watch their eyes bleed!
Personally I think the biggest winners will be .TV, .ME, and one or two other extensions that had MANY years to take off with much less competition. That is an opinion. But there is also growing evidence. .TV is a natural but after some 15 years it is just now gaining some traction. But .TV means something. ME means something as we live in a world of Me's.
So from an investing standpoint it is quite different and I HOPE you have YOUR 20 year plan.
But whether we see great successes or great failures this is the point where things move in a very big way. These new gTLD's will provide the fuel I see to go where I believe this ship is going. That is an opinion. But it is based in FACTS and EVIDENCE. It is based on watching things very closely for a very long time. It is based on history. And our job is to just keep score and see what picture it paints. It won't paint that picture in 2013. But by the end of next year we will have a BOATLOAD of new information. Be skeptical. Most will be hype and deals done with friends and family or ones where no money exchanges hands.
Have a GREAT Day!