The Eye of the Domain Hurricane and We are in it!! Capitalism to Roar Back!

Morning Folks!!

I said in my July 4th post that I could clearly see where we are going now. If you compare that to my posts of 2008 and 2009 then you will see we have come a very long way. Clarity! While the fog is very real for many, I only see clarity coming.

But clarity does not mean life and business without turmoil and challenge. Clarity simply means you understand the turmoil and how it will come out, when it will lift and what the fallout might be. While others focus on one point in time or even yesterday, focusing on a period of time after that is much more meaningful and useful. So that is why I would call this summer the eye of the storm. Things are quiet on one side, but percolating on the other side with the ammunition and mood to explode at any moment. A very quite and tense situation worldwide.

This recession or downturn is different than any other in history because while folks may not have a steady job and thus no steady income, they do have income. That is much different than the recession of the 1970's or the depression when folks did not have any income whatsoever.

Poverty today does not look like poverty in the 1950's and 1960's. Without seeing that and understanding that, then you are dependent on the media and they have their own agendas. They have 'Dumbed down the news' on broadcast TV. They don't paint an accurate picture of where we are. Lindsay Lohan leads the news.

In the 1970's my dad was in his 60's and unemployed. I was in high school. One of my brothers just got out of college and looking for a job. The 4 of us lived in a 21ft trailer in Van Nuys, California. I took my showers in the mobile home park bathroom. I had no car. I had what I was wearing and my heart ached for my friends in New Hampshire.

I got a job a Taco Bell and learned how to make Taco Shells. And then refried beans. And then work at the counter. And that was after being rejected by Jack in the Box, McDonald's, Norms. I guess I was either too stupid to know how bad it was or I was too scared of life not getting better that motivated me. I also knew I wasn't going to get many dates without a little coin.

A computer, cell phone and a strong desire to succeed along with a work ethic that understands 18 hour days and 2 or 3 jobs is the way to vault over the masses that REFUSE to do that TODAY. Work creates self esteem and self esteem makes you want to do better and better and better. Mediorce or excellent?! Or CREATE your own path with those 2 tools that no other generation was fortunate enough to have or even dream of. Star Trek shit and folks still wallow in self pity!

That does not mean it is not tough out there. So what?? A REAL job is almost never advertised. You got to go in and get it! Create it!

There is no neon sign for opportunity. You have to learn to recognize opportunity when it crosses your path. It is invisible!! Train yourself to see the invisible. To pick out opportunity when it is there. That is what every successful person does. Period! And many create their own opportunity. But if you are not doing well and playing video games, time to toss the games!

Folks make a living of excusing failure. We spend more per capita in the USA per student than any country in the world and we are not even in the top 20 worldwide. That's a crime! That means something is broken. I don't want small classes of 30. I want large classes of 30 million. I would rather see the Steve Jobs of the world teaching those 30 million something of great value compared to somebody less qualified teaching 30 and hiring 1 million of them. One costs 1 MILLION times as much and gets a fraction of the result. DUH!!

Sorry, but I see a recession of minds and attitudes and dependence and integrity. I don't see a recession of opportunity.

Capitalism is on trial. Or so some think. But Capitalism will sustain an overwhelming win over dependence. Overwhelming! And when that event happens or perceived to have happened, then an avalanche of business will be unleashed. Scared money will make a 180 degree turn around.

I could point to many things to support my argument but I don't want to go all political. All I will venture to say is that I believe Romney will win by an 'electoral' landslide, the Senate will flip and the House will not look much different then it does now. A new course will be set and it won't look like the last administration or this one. If you don't agree with me, fine, but I guess we can look back at this prediction come November.

But between now and then, some of the most volatile months you have ever seen may be in store for us and will likely carry on into next year before it finally calms down and we begin to get on track. Nothing happens overnight but there will be a point that things will turn. If you wait for that point, you are already way behind. Anticipating when we hit that point is the way to score and score big. Get it wrong, it could be costly. Hope we get through London without major incident.

In times like this I look for a parallel in history and I have found one. Actually several. And in the few years I have been following these parallels, they have only gotten more intense. I guess that is only if we survive 2012.

The best news that I hope and expect will emerge is that sales and profits will once again be in vogue. Sales will be the driving force. Finally!! Profits will be paramount. Finally!! And that is why important and meaningful domain names will emerge as perhaps the #1 investment asset in the world. It's rightful and long awaited place! The foundation and brand of every future business.

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz


The Single Most Important Issue YOU Face in the Next Year

Morning Folks!!

What I write on my blog is only half of the story. You, the commenter, provide the other half. I open up an issue and you close the issue. I bring up a few points and you folks fill in the rest of the points. I have a good pulse on things because I ask many people and get a wide array of feedback. Sometimes I play devils advocate.

So what are the issues that face you in the next 12-18 months? Today? Tomorrow? What are your challenges? What are your progress points? What does the gTLD's mean to you if anything? Are you in the black? Are you tapping into your savings?

I read that folks have lost 40% of their net worh since the recession began. Of course that becomes relative. If you are just starting out you are likely bucking the trend. If you have been out there for decades, then you may fall into this group.

What blows me away about this recession is I don't believe it is a recession at all. I see jobs with nobody smart enough or talented enough to fill them. I see jobs that are beneath students. (Sorry in my book, no such thing) Substitute 'Lazy' because while they think the job is beneath them, they don't realize that the experience they get they don't have to pay for and they can draw on those experiences long after they left that job and employ them in future positions. And they get paid for it!

What's the problem? Well they have to learn to show up. They have to be disciplined to get themselves there on time. They actually have to work with others and if they are a fuck up, they are gonna toss their ass out the door no matter how cool they are. Don't carry their weight? They will throw them out on their ass! Not the boss, the 19 year old coworkers that have to deal with it and do their job as well as theirs. I can't tell you how many 'Jocks' I have seen crying as their peers toss them out of a restaurant kitchen.

Sales are what drives everything and since the focus is not sales these days, that becomes the problem. Few understand or know how to sell. The art of selling. CEO's used to be the best salesman. Today it is the best accountant or lawyer or something else unrelated to sales. Sales are the top of the pyramid. Nothing in this world happens until a sale is made. I must have said that 20 times on this blog though the years. So I have to laugh at 'Start-ups' because their eye is almost never on sales and almost always on getting money. But with no sales, you are just supporting the guys that refuse to work for McDonald's. 21st century panhandling?

The real reason a company should be looking for money is because they can't fill the orders fast enough. Because they can't grow fast enough. Because SALES is pushing them. Because they need to expand and grow and make more money. They are already profitable and can't plow the money back into the business fast enough.

Today startups start with ZERO SALES! That ain't no startup, that's a personal charity.

Sorry for the ramble and rant. One thought just led to another and here we are. So what's your rant today? How do you see it? How does the overall mood play into your business?

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

My Belated Annual July 4th Post. A confused Industry.

Morning Folks!!

I have made a July 4th post as long as I can remember online. I started writing this a couple weeks back along with several other thoughts and posts that were never finished or just decided not to publish. There is so much to say right now. So much confusion and second guessing. I re-evaluate things every waking day. New info, could mean a new result or just fortify what you believe even stronger.

Let’s just admit most of us have A.D.D. (Attention Deficit Disorder) and I think I can prove it. First of all we would likely not be domainers as we would be satisfied with just one domain name. We would be satisfied with perusing just one project. We would be happy owning one business. Shall I go on? Call it what you like, but as unfocused as we are, I think I am seeing even less focus as folks begin to doubt themselves., their futures and their own beliefs because they just don’t have the inner strength not to be swayed by their peers or the masses.

Domains are becoming very important and moving to center stage as I always knew they would and have said so repeatedly over the years. Almost decades! However many Domainers are weak and throwing in the towel. The numbers say 80% will give up before finding the success they so dearly wanted to find. Budgets are stretched and domain investors are forced to become domain flippers.

I see the weekly auction numbers like you do. It mostly shows weakness. $1.4 million this week, $1.2 million next week, $1.5 million the week after. To me, shows weakness. Not because of the numbers or even the number of sales. But the prices and the reasons that are forcing that sales. BILLS! OVERHEAD! MORTGAGES!

Domain Investors have been overrun with all types of other folks making a living off domains. That’s not a bad thing unless you don’t recognize and understand that. They have different agendas and goals with a lot of overlapping. Overlapping does not mean to ignore the defining lines and the various sectors and many new sectors to come. It means to understand them, use them, be one of them if that is your calling. But don't ignore anything.

For years I have talked about type ins and am always abruptly interrupted with a chorus of different views minimizing traffic. Well sorry, this game IS about traffic. Maybe not all domains, but you need a BASE of domains with traffic to support those with value that can’t support themselves. Those that ignore this continue to struggle more than any other group because they are missing a key piece of the puzzle and play the game with a huge handicap.

The entire PPC system is based on type in traffic!! Not based on seo traffic. The seo was just a way to abuse and take advantage of the system and Google allowed it for some DUMB or monetary reason. So if you don’t use ppc you are forced to be a flipper. It’s kinda funny for me. I entered domains and the Internet and the first place I ever posted was on a board with a bunch of folks flipping Mobile Homes. It was the same group as I see today on domains except the cost of doing business with domains is lunch money. They quickly removed my posts and tossed me out with the garbage for simply suggesting they could substitute this thing called domain names and do the flipping faster and make loads more money. I think Serge may be the only one that actually remembers because he was there and he too had his posts removed.

The industry is weak today as sales are forced. Forced to pay the bills. And when you are forced to sell, you have to sell your best. Junk is hard to sell. Sometimes you can’t even give it away. for example. Nobody even wants the carrying charges or can afford them. Not even domain flippers and that says it all. Besides, why pay more for something proved to be inferior and pay 2x or 3x as much? But step away. Domain names, especially .com are stronger and more powerful than ever!!! The masses are just beginning to realize the importance and power and so many domain investors just can’t quite see the end of the tunnel. Don’t give up! We are almost there. Land ho! Land ho! This is the START not the end. Do everything you can NOT to sell you unique assets. Values are going to explode! And if .whatever does not lead to the promised land, they will explode again and even more so.

I have been enjoying the clarity of what is happening and what is to come. If you look at things as a snapshot, then fear comes. When you look at it as an evolution and a revolution, a huge smile comes. I feel JOVIAL!! I also feel bad for those that either don’t believe in themselves or don’t believe in their domains. That had to do it “Their way” regardless of the results.

If you are being FORCED to sell domain to survive, something is wrong and so many are in that situation including some large companies in the space. But look, we all see things differently and all I can do is share the way I see it and if what I share rings true, then hopefully understanding will come along with it.

I watch folks and domainers chase what happened yesterday. What a waste!! You don’t chase yesterday folks, you set up shop on tomorrow and have them pour you a drink. You don’t CHASE, you WAIT! Because if you wait, it means you got there before them and you know they are coming. If you chase, that train already left the station and it may be never before the next train comes.

So if you positioned yourself well, sit back. Take a deep breath. 1000 doors of opportunity are about to flood the market. And just like metal, there is gold and tin and a market for each. Many won’t be metal at all. Clay and they will break apart the moment they are touched.

So clarity and excitement and fulfillment all at once. As I mentioned on my email last week, there have also been a few constants. At the core are the 350-500 domain investors that came from every walk of life from all points of the globe that refuse to give up their vision. Have minds as varied as the stars and are bonded together by something we ourselves can't even explain. We are explorers with varying booties of treasure. None the same, but many alike. We have nothing in common and everything in common.

So for those that think it is over, let me tell you a tiny secret. It has yet to even begin. We are at Babe Ruth valuation not Derrick Jeter. Don't know or understand the difference?? Then don't waste your time disagreeing with me, invest your time and learn why I am right! Because sales is the driving force, understanding and great need will happen. SALES!! New Clients. Growth. But it won't be in your time frame, it will be in their timeframe. All we can do is accelerate and bend how long it all takes. Need, want and desire will be the path to the future and following the money will tell you the answers. Consumer money is smart. Investor money is not as smart. Type ins are the consumer speaking. It's the holy grail whether you want to accept it or not and it is going to determine the fate or success of almost every non-brand extension to come.

Thanks for reading and here is my post from July 4th 1998. Times changing?

Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz