2003 and 2013 Look VERY Similar.

Morning Folks!!

I can't close my eyes to what I see and what I feel. 2003 and 2013 look very similar when it comes to business, domains and domaining. But there is a HUGE difference. In 2003 the Internet was a THREAT to many. In 2013 it is a LIFELINE!

Now if you see and understand that, then you will know about how explosive business is about to get. There are GIANT deals being done. You don't hear about 90% of the REAL deals. They are well below radar and there are many. But that is going off on a tangent.

The point is if you know what is coming, then you can plan for it. We are IN the next cycle. We have LEFT the 2008-2009 crash. Now the destruction remains. The damage is very real. But just as it did in 2003, from the ashes and the embers will emerge something that I wrote about then. I wrote about how we would see huge growth and the world would change because of folks embracing the Internet.

That debate is over. The Internet hit Critical Mass DURING the crash!! Friends that were the oldest holdouts of the Internet are no longer holdouts. They are online. 100% saturation as far as I a concerned in the USA. I have watched it grow from less than 5%.  have heard the doubters each and every step of the way. There was nothing to doubt then and nothing to doubt today. The dark period is OVER! Those that were hiding under their desks can now come out. It is safe.

Financially safe that is. Socially is an entire different story. I can say that today the world is more unstable than at any point in my lifetime. That includes the Russian missile Crisis Era. There is no center of gravity. No center of power. No moral center. We can't change that and the only reason I bring it up is the Internet played a big roll in that happening. It was forseeable. Hate comes out and is easy to hide and easy to mask. It resides at every corner of the Internet.

It is what it is.

In 2008 we were in a business and financial fog. Today things are not crystal clear, but they are clear enough. Clear enough to see that the next 3 years are going to be FANTASTIC. Not for all. I can't make fantastic for you. But conditions are such that FANTASTIC things can and will happen. We have already entered that new stage. It is your responsibility to share in that.

Business stagnation is OVER. Businesses are doing big and long-term deals. Even the sale of the Boston Globe with a 93% LOSS shows that we are adjusting to the new normal instead of fretting about yesterday's normal. That era is over just like this new era is beginning. When they sold the globe for just $70 million, how much of that was for Boston.com?

Many domainers have disappeared over these past 5 years. They have not been replaced. But even that seems to be changing. We all hit bottom and most survived. The climb back up can be just as much or more fun the second time. For me, it is my 4th time.

Supply and demand. The oldest law of business. Sometimes there is too much supply and sometimes not enough. That is the cycle of business. We took a 5 year break. Supply was high, demand was low and so it was easy to predict the crash to begin with. Today, supply is low, and demand is up and so are prices.

Is it a messed up system? Oh yeah!! But they have it under control today. Control is ugly but it works. Inflation is what keeps it all working and we are about to see  that giant unleashed. Just another cycle. Another wave. It never stops. Just need to know when to make hay and when to relax and enjoy.

Have a GREAT day!

Rick Schwartz

15 thoughts on “2003 and 2013 Look VERY Similar.

  1. Mason

    Martin Armstrong says this is a false move

    8/7/2013 represents a top and then its down until 2014

    I will watch to see who is right on this direction

  2. Dorito Eleven

    Rick – .Com will have years to bask in the sun after it become obvious that the silly new extensions are a failure and that the gtld empirer is wearing no clothes. A lot of money will be lost in this fool’s cash suck, but pity not. All had been warned and a just a wee bit of common sense would have prevailed. Nevertheless, there still exist a few idiots, suckers and con-artists who will readily have the public believe that these extensions actually have a chance to succeed and the uncertainty of the naming system is taking its anticipated toll on selling prices.

    After the upcoming gtld crash and burn of 2014, .com will be the only tld standing and the domain market will then continue onwards and upwards. For the reasons you referenced, the time to buy .com is now.

  3. Altaf

    What a power in writing!! Rick, how did you learn economics so clear?
    Thanks and congtrats for the views. Gratefully,


    I don’t agree with you in all Dorito, we never know what it would be till it happens. I see the fear of changes here, between domainers. Dont be scared, prepare, its after all new opportunity. :)

  5. UFO

    A good .Com also gives you credibility with suppliers. If they believe in your business plan (because its got a kick ass .com to leverage) they WILL give you far more leeway.

  6. UFO

    Also, most writing on web ecommerce is about as lame as the people that don’t get it. In 2003 those large companies that hid their heads in the sand that were most exposed to the development of the net have been nailed. Here we are now in 2013 and the net will continue to bite, the next on the block are the second line of companies and intermediaries. We are moving ever closer to maunfacturer -> ecommerce organiser -> consumer. Effectively 2 steps in business because its the most efficient. Intermediaries are going to get it.

    Another aspect that one leading business writer was commenting on in the mid 90’s was around the ever increasing tendency to get more ‘radical’ in advertising. With the huge rise in social media and the 2 step business chain advertising is going to get even more social.

    I think we are also going to witness the huge rise in the SME. Why? Large scale businesses gained a upper hand early on with offshoring etc etc, now SMEs via the net can procure just the same. The only difference is they don’t have massive corporate overheads. Quite a number of big corporates are seriously going to feel the heat this next decade.

    Interesting times ahead. Entrepreneurs with great domains and ideas have got some serious potential to mint themselves.

  7. Josh

    So big inflation is coming. I agree. What to do with money outside of domains? How to hedge?

  8. UFO

    Josh “So big inflation is coming. I agree. What to do with money outside of domains? How to hedge?”

    Well, things that are fixed in supply and people require more as needs rather than descretionary items are always going to be a good hedge. Property is always a good one, and governments always support prices. Low interest rates supported the recessionary effects, consider a 20% loss in housing (timing difference really) as opposed to everything else.

    I’m surprised the media has never picked up on people simply buying a load of necessities and stocking up on them. You can make more money off your savings buy forward buying basics than having it in your bank.

  9. UFO

    Mason – He uses PI (3.14) and a buncha smart computers to pick cycle tops and bottoms, He was thrown in jail for a short stint and just got released.

    lol, you can’t be serious.. I’ll agree in high volume transactional environments the quants can rule the roost, but in big fluffy macro and higher level stuff understanding the basics and using some qualitative reasoning will be generally more accurate, aka the Warren Buffets of the world.

    Too many math types try to convince the world that everything can be boiled down to maths. Unfortunately the complexity is far too great, to design that level of math presupposes they already know the answer.

  10. @Domains

    There has been some good economic news out lately, but with cities like Detroit going backrupt (more to come?), many countries on a money-printing binge, and many people still out of work, I don’t know how great things can really get. Domains have generally been pretty steady over the last 13 years because the internet is growing so much and people/businesses need to be online. I see a likely scenario of inflation at some point, and precious metals like gold going up in value, and it won’t be pretty for people with large debts that are affected by interest rates. At least the US has found more natural gas and oil which might keep energy prices from skyrocketing. A further delay in the new gtlds will also help existing domain holders, though I don’t think the new gtlds are a long term risk to .com’s and country codes.

  11. Bruno M. Kebran

    I agree with you ATLAS, I see fear and I see domainers positively reinforcing themselves. Its kind of the “iphone is late in the phone wars” talk. I hold a bunch of .com (more than a lot of people do) but I also understand principles of supply and demand.

    Yes, some .com’s are going to sell as always but we are going to see huge supply disruptions and new alternative Gtld’s come into play and 2 things are going to happen.

    1. Buyers are going to have lots of bargaining power due to alternatives
    2. Natural progression in technology (geo search) is going to play a major role in mass adoption.

    Now the real question is going to be wether geo domains are going to be a disruption to .com or a compliment. The Gtld’s are here and that is the reality


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