Let's take a few minutes maybe even a few posts to untangle this clusterf*ck of what is coming and what the Myths and Facts really are. And if I don't know, I will make it up. I will come to an assumption. I will use what facts are available and at the minimum use that as the starting point because you need somewhere to start and assumptions are perfect until you can plug-in the actual facts when they unfold. And if you have been paying attention they have been unfolding every day. And if you have some parallels set up, you can already see what is coming and the stages they are coming in. Let's just say "Consolidation" will be the keyword for the first 5-10 years or more and we have already seen that happen. Or die on the vine.
Myth #1 "gTLD's are bad for the Industry."
Well it may be a mess and it may be a clusterf*ck of historical proportions, it will also bring awareness and tens of billions of dollars into our space. Normally I would say sales. But in this case, the #1 expenditure will likely be advertising and other means to bring awareness but does not necessarily result in sales that are strong enough to support. Not to mention employees, customer service, unexpected glitches. A rocky road. It costs money to pave the way and get to a smooth time. Many won't survive that journey and some already gave u before the trip even begins.
Myth #2 "gTLD's will devalue my .com's."
Well nothing could be further from the truth. It will do quite the opposite. Those that are saying that are likely buyers trying to get you to sell beneath market. How gullible. Are you paying attention to the after market? It is exploding! There is a reason for that but I won't argue the point, I will just state what happens before it happens and be on record so we can look back.
Myth #3 I am not sure what to quote here. But just an interesting observation. The gTLD's were open to everyone in the world. All the different languages. But extensions are dominated by English Words. Why?
Myth #4 "Somebody that owns a .com will want the other .whatevers."
As Page Howe articulated on DomainSherpa.com last week and I agree with 100%, he never goes downstream. In other words, if you own something other than .com then you want to grab every other extension and keep going after better and higher level domains until you get to the prize which is .com. But if you have the .com you are really not motivated to get the lower level extensions. Matter of fact, you can't wait for one of them to have a giant success.
Myth #5. "My .whatever extension does not leak traffic to the .com"
Sorry, fact beyond dispute. The evidence is overwhelming. So overwhelming in fact that it has the potential to sink the ship. Any ship. That's a captain of a ship that believes the ocean has no shallow spots and a few leaks won't hurt anything.
Myth #6 "Google and Amazon and the big boys are in charge"
Not true. The consumer is always in charge. Everyone chases the consumer. There are some that do it really well (Apple) and have a harness on it and there are others that fail like JCPenny and are wobbling out of control. The consumer demands certain things. And when you don't give it to them, they won't give their dollars to them.
Myth #7 "The buyer sets the price and is in control of a transaction."
Come on. The seller is the only one that can press the Red Button and make a decision. The seller has only one thing he controls, his wallet and perhaps lack of funds.
Myth #8 "Reverse Domain Name Hijacking is no big deal"
Myth #9 "Rick and his Need, Want, Desire" does not get it.
Sorry, few have challenged Need, Want, Desire" and "Value" becomes a knockout blow. Down goes Frazier! I am just saying that many of those that are doing this are unprepared for the reality of what they are going to find out. So their only play is selling the extension. And while everyone thinks they make 5X their money with a $1 million sale of a $185k asset, there are also many other fees and expenses and time and energy that the very people I talk about, don't count. Sorry, It all counts!! Ignore enough important things, minimize them like a shrinking machine and eventually collapse may be the result.
Myth #10 "We will have hundreds of thousands of registrations"
That's like the Internet guy saying that getting traffic is no problem. Until he finds out it is the 2000lb gorilla in the room and there are 699 other gorillas and some are much bigger.
Myth #11 "The success or failure of those extensions that are released first will have no affect good or bad on any other extension.
I beg to differ and did an entire post on it. It the first 10 are dogs, it won't help #11. If the first 10 are winners, then it will help #11. If it does not move the needle, it is even worse. That means nobody cares.
Like I said, it would take more than one post to go down the list. So #11 was just a replay bonus. ;-)
There will be many ways for the savvy to make money regardless of the fact that most people will lose their asses.