The Summer/Fall 2015 Domain Name Crash

Morning Folks!!

So let's look at the coming time line for the gTLD's and what is likely to happen.

While sunrise periods are starting nothing counts until things open to the public and the cash registers are open for full business. So that is likely next summer and fall by the time things are in full swing. Not sure exactly when things will climax as the roll out takes 2 years.

The slip by one can hurt many and that could replay many times. A stumble by one. A scandal by another.  Who knows. But what I do know is that is will affect them all whether they like it or not.

No matter which way things shake out, the drop game is going to be the big winners. DomainShane and DomainPicks will have to have several daily editions  to even try to keep up. That calamity starts summer or fall 2015 and then continues for as far as the eye can see.  The drops will be dropping like flies and there will still be registries opening their doors in success or failure and those headwinds WILL have an effect.

Don't trip over the drops on the way to shangri-la.

You don't have to be some so-called visionary to see the obvious and plan for it and take advantage of it. This is a GUARANTEED EVENT regardless of the success or failure of any gtld.  GUARANTEED!

See if you see things the way I see things you can see events that are definite far out in the future and from those events you can be at an outcome before there is an outcome. Be at the beach before anyone arrives or even thinks of going.

You can also fill in the blanks in between the outcomes. That provides a roadmap and a timeline and you never break a sweat doing it.

There will be clues and evidence and successes and failures along the way. It is from those events you get to predict other events. But to do this you must discount the propaganda, the noise and the bogus and inflated sales sure to come. That which provides the BAIT for others to get sucked in.

And it will be those folks that will be trying to desperately get rid of their domains before the drop of 2015. The 80/20 rule in full swing and that number has the potential to be bent much, much higher. There are more and more domainers invested in the success of gtld's. There are thousands of jobs at stake. Tools to be sold. Things to write about.

The question is how will the consumer and business respond and participate. Without them, it has all the makings for a tulip festival and that would not be good for anyone reading this. Expansion is a great thing. Anyone bring any stop signs, traffic lights or exits?

Whichever side you come down on, follow your heart and beliefs. Bet on yourself. Don't listen to me or Monte or Frank or any blogger. Do your own due diligence. Be skeptical. Ask hard questions. Follow the numbers. Target without exempting the entire planet. You have a right when it comes to investing your hard-earned dollars because our futures are all at stake. The futures of our family. Our main job is to resist propaganda and insist on facts.

Rick Schwartz



11 thoughts on “The Summer/Fall 2015 Domain Name Crash

  1. Ian Andrew

    Observations and questions from a slightly confused and maybe uninformed me!

    Phew.
    It seems very likely that there WILL be at least one high profile gTLD failure / scandal / mishap that will make the national news which in turn will add to scaring the already confused uneducated masses (ordinary consumer / business owner). Driving them to the Save Havens of their own country code and/or Dotcom.
    and that fear will stay a long time…

    Compound that with the chance of being misled and confused by the businesses that don’t make it clear about what one is buying. Ie paying for an option to get something that the seller doesn’t even have the right to, or paying someone to “try” and get a name for you etc etc

    Will Google treat all extensions equal?

    Will the Aftermarkets list all the new open gTLDs?

    It seems crazy to me how much money is being invested in new gTLDs.
    …. continued…

    Reply
  2. Ian Andrew

    …. part 2….
    Wonder where the expected payback is?

    Is it Domainers? – probably not (as Rick has mentioned himself he has never made any profit on investing in ANY the existing gTLDs) Correct Rick?
    Is it TradeMark Owners? – how much more will they be willing to pile in to “protect” their brands? I would think they would start to pinpoint more specific protections in the most credible extensions rather than spray their money scatter guns at anything that moved.
    Is it New businesses? Do they really expect to start a business with a name without also buying the Dotcom and/or relevant country code?

    …. continued…

    Reply
  3. Ian Andrew

    Seems to be a lot of great descriptive/generic Dotcom bargains out there.
    Is there ANYONE / (any business) out there picking up those bargains?

    Maybe I should just hibernate for the year or two that you suggest Rick and see what has happened then.

    In the meantime our monthly end user Dotcom name sales seem remarkably stable. (dot co.uk sales paralysed by the FUD caused by .uk uncertainty)
    Maybe I am missing something??
    Hey Ho! Ian.

    Reply
  4. Owen Frager

    To Gtld visionaries- this is a hard crowd but always remember
    “Don’t be distracted by criticism. Remember, the only taste of success some people have is when they take a bite out of you.” -Zig Ziglar

    Reply
  5. Jonathan

    Ian Andrew@ Agreed, a good summary. All adds grist to one horse marketing directors, then on top of that is the wild west legal system of digital claim jumpers.
    The .co.uk is on it’s deathbed .uk will rule Britannia and as Sedo used third party advertisers on a .co.uk that ghosted in gambling & sex advertising that in turn caused Google to blight the domain, I now have a second chance, saved by the .uk !!

    Reply
  6. Domenclature.com

    Two things are happening simultanously:

    Those launching new gTLDs that own a vast number of COMs, are not dropping their prices on their .COMs,

    That is a very important signal that I marked my calendar a year ago to use as a signal today. I have five other secret triggers in my pocket.

    Reply
  7. Domenclature.com

    @Altaf

    The triggers must never be given away in advance, so as to avoid alerting the subjects to influence outcomes.

    But, I can give away an obvious one:

    Watch to see which new gTLD that ICANN registers its name via Godaddy.com, if ICANN doesn’t protect its name by registering ICANN like it did with .ORG, .NET, and .COM over at Godaddy, then that new gTLD is not important enough.

    The Registries are still required to reserve the ICANN, and IANA names by rule, but if ICANN goes out of its way to actually register and use the ICANN name, that TLD is important. So watch for that as a small signal, independent of the big remaining secret signals; I will be publishing those triggers as time elapses.

    Reply
  8. UFO

    I think domainers are going to be quite surprised how invasive these new gTLDs become.

    The real action is how browsers and search engines take to the issues relating to these gTLDs and also if ICANN drops its set up fees for new gTLDs in the next round.

    I’m also interested to see how Verisign will be able to justify its registration fees for domains when new gTLDs can charge less. ICANN will come under pressure to ensure its tender with Verisign is fair and open AND that .com is not cross subsidising the net when new gTLDs should pay their fair contibution to its maintenance / development / R&D. Could one of the new registries end up running the .com eventually?

    Reply
  9. Altaf

    @DomenClature:
    Thanks for that. But I see .com.co or co.in etc. taken/protected (i am not sure who did), so in that case are those ext important?

    Reply
  10. Domenclature.com

    @Altaf,

    Those are not taken. They are not in use by ICANN. You have to type the names in on a browser. The names must be Registered at Godaddy.com by ICANN to be important enough.

    Reply

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