I will state for the record once again that ANY and nearly all new gTLD's will need domainers at their core if they really want to have a chance. That is why I believe most of the new extensions will simply die on the vine and have no meaning or importance whatsoever. That takes care of "Most". But as INVESTORS, it is our job to pick out the one or ones that will lead the pack.
NONE will ever approach .com in OUR lifetimes. Not even a close 2nd will appear.
We will have 2 major groups initially. Investors and flippers. So you will have 1000 flippers flapping away. Don't get pissed. It is just a reality that is coming and you can see from the MOON!! Rubber Duck x 1000. Edward Cline x 10,000. :-) Get ready!
On the other hand "Domain Investors" move more quietly and look at it as accumulating an appreciating asset.
That brings me to my poll from Thursday and this post. As you read the comments a picture appears. And once again DOMAINERS get it RIGHT while many will and ARE getting it wrong.
.Com works because it was the first and is synonymous with the Internet. Over 95% of every major business in the world has their .com and collectively spend billions of dollars druming .com into our consiousness. And it worked!!
Add up all the other advertising dollars for all the other extensions and in ONE DAY .com will outspend what others did collectively in over a YEAR.
Besides that you can put .com at the end of anything and it SOUNDS good. You can not say that with MOST of the new extensions. They are limited in meaning and gluing a keyword to something with NO meaning is a tough road to hoe. I look at most extensions as limited and the last thing you want to do is limit yourself.
So when I asked the question on Thursday, "What are the Top 10 New gTLD’s?" I got a very good amount of opinions and many were common.
Without doubt, the ONE extension that lead the way was .Web.
Only a few others were even mentioned more than once. But ones that were, .Free and .music for example.
.NYC lead the .geo's, only one comment for .LA. I see that mainly because it has already been out for so many years without having much impact. I would say .LA is more dependent on .NYC than any other factor. That said Geo gTLD's seem to have the most support and perhaps the best hope.
The one thing most folks FAIL to ask is WHY does .com rule? Why did .com take off like a rocket and leave .net in the dust? What elements are missing with the new gtld's? Will .net have a second look over .crap?
Some of the answers:
.com was adopted universally by large and small businesses throughout the world. It is synonymous with the Internet like the 800 number is to the telephone.
.com has TRAFFIC that is very valuable and when measured against all other current extensions, has more type ins than all other extensions combined and multiplied. An extension with no traffic is like an oil well with no oil. It is still a well but it ain't worth shit.
So the question for .web is it another .com or another .net?
Then of course you have a VERY BIG problem. Holding back of "Premium" domains in each extension. While registrars and registry's will make money, it won't translate well down the food chain. They are likely the ONLY ones that will see a profit. This takes out the NATURAL DEMAND. Another element that will be missing from the .com formula.
Missing elements? Yes, many. Some are the foundation of .com and KEY to the success of .com and completely MISSING in 99% of the .whatevers. Good luck with that formula. Good luck with IGNORING those KEY elements.
Those missing key elements is why .web lead the way for domain investors when asked which gtld's have a CHANCE to succeed.
So a different recipe GUARANTEES a different outcome.
I DO believe there could be some every powerful phrases that come out. But one or even several of those are not enough to support an entire extension. And while folks throw around big numbers before this all comes into being, those numbers will be a MOUNTAIN to climb for most. Most will be stranded on that mountain like .travel and some will die on the mountain like .mobi. But even those like ME who have jumped on .xxx for example would gladly take those $$$$ back and return those "Premium" domains.
That is why I believe that the gtlds will not only make .com MUCH more valuable but EXPONENTIALLY more valuable. It also has a chance to rescue some of the extensions that have been around for a long time and get a second look.
.Travel may get a second look and probably find the same result as the first look. However, others may do better. .TV, .ME, .Info. Net, .Org. I know many think I will be saying .biz. Sorry, ain't on my list. "B" stringers in my book. Sorry.
The main difference I see is the way domain INVESTORS will look at things and the way domain FLIPPERS will look at things. So I just look at today. Folks email me all day long to flip .co. I am sure there is a market for those names. But it is a very soft and hollow market and getting more than a few hundred dollars is a very hard task if it can be sold at all. Same with .xxx. Demand is just not there. That means prices are soft and likely won't be climbing much if at all. Investor asset or a liability?
So as this all comes closer into focus, we will follow this and the ANTICS that follow. The domain INVESTOR will be the ones picking most of the winners and by not buying, picking the losers as well. And NEVER forget that type-in traffic is still the core of value that DROVE the entire .com train.
I have invested in almost every new extension over the past decade++ and not a single one of them have put me in the black including .me. On the other hand, during those same years, .com has changed my life. I can only hope it happens again!! But I can not ignore evidence that cost me over $1 Million to obtain. That money buys me a STRONG opinion.