What are the Top 10 New gTLD’s?

Morning folks!!

So with 1900 new extensions coming to market which will be the top 10 Domain Investor Extensions?

Once you discount the .Brands, you will have maybe 1200-1500  generic extensions. Which are your favorite? Which has you LOL? Which ones do you think can eventually breakout over the next TWENTY years? Post your list.

Let's assume 10 could potentially break out of the 1200-1500 generics. 10 winners and a lot of losers. Guys holding the bag and there ain't much in the bag. But in with all the crap are a few gems. Which ones? Even a die-hard .com guy like me knows there may be ONE worth looking at. One? I would love to have an opportunity to repeat. I don't see it happening. But I would not fight it if it did. I would embrace it. But first I need to see 3 elements that are NATURAL. Need, Want, Desire. Now everyone goes blank the moment I mention these 3 words. Scares the daylights out of them.

Personally.....Need, Want, Desire is THE radio test for me. But folks are scared of those words when they NEED to embrace those words. You can instill.....Need, Want, Desire. That is what SALES is all about. But it NEEDS a basis. So what 10 would fit in the Need, Want, Desire category? What 5? I will continue to state that without the domain investment community most of them will die on the vine. But some will bear fruit. Which ones?

So if you are one that has a new extension coming, this is the time to start telling us the real benefits we will see as an investor or an end user and what they plan to do to educate folks about something few will even know about for YEARS. And we should make a note of those that shun domainers as they will eventually rethink things but will be way too late. There are some HUGE marketing pitfalls to come complicated by hundreds of other .whatevers that want to clean tour clock and out you out of business.

I really can't wait to see this fiasco. The likes of which we have NEVER seen in history of mankind. An invented need to invent $$$$. How many of them will open their doors and sell NOTHING other than friends and family? But for the HUNDREDS that sell squat, there will be a few that market right and create a Need, Want and Desire.

And Branding?? Well branding happens all by itself. Register 10 million names and you are branded. Mass usage is the best and purest branding. When folks come with their own Need, Want, Desire and it is your product or service they Need, Want, Desire. That is branding.

So who will break out? I have not even studied the list. It is overwhelming. Which ones have the best chance? Which ones have no chance?

At the end of the day it will be up to 3rd parties to embrace what is coming. But it will be the domain community that truly picks the winners.

Rick Schwartz

 



55 thoughts on “What are the Top 10 New gTLD’s?

  1. Anita

    I think .FREE would be the pick of the lot and maybe .BLOG has some practical use. Don’t know why but I don’t really like .WEB which seems to be the most popular among pre-registrations.

    Reply
  2. Joao

    Since your question is for domain investors, i would say…none. At least for the next 10 years or so.

    As a registry biz, the ones i like the most are .Inc (if restricted) and .Email (if verified along with email tools).

    Reply
  3. Andrew Douglas

    Honestly, if all they really are is just another extension, none of them will be major contributors to the net. While .mobi and .tel didn’t succeed, they at least tried to provide a consistent and potentially interesting service or feature across the entire extension. Something like .Store that came with a shopify account would be cool. .App could be the new .mobi if they provide a unified development framework for building cross platform apps… but if all it is just another extension, why would I bother? Picking a winner without knowing which will step up with good ideas is a like picking lotto numbers.

    Reply
  4. Domenclature.com

    I was trying to make a point on Berkens blog last week, that basically postulates that if one, or a few of these things succeeds, they all succeed, perhaps relatively. The way I see it, these new gTLD people, and ICAAN, intend to work like a wold pack.

    Wolf packs function as families. Everyone has a role, and if you act within the parameters of your role, the whole pack succeeds, and when that falls apart, so does the pack. ( – Jodi Picoult ).

    We must remember that the only impeding innovation when it comes to domain names, is that searcher, and surfer behavior is constantly under manipulation by Google, and the other search engines to a lesser extent. If these gTLDs were to prick this behavior, and wake up the society to alternative TLDs, going as far as making them use these keywords before, and after the dot, by-passing .COM? If one or two of these gTLD people are able to get this done, then they all win. The reason being that the resistance is overcome, the flood gates will open, and it will gush .whatever users. They all win.

    I don’t think any of them will succeed beyond novelty use. However, I predict the coming of dot-less domain names shortly after this.

    Reply
  5. Ramahn

    @Domenclature

    1. human behavior>Google
    2. Unless the big boys all jump the .com ship and use the new gtlds (you didn’t give examples on which ones by the way)..then who wins? How can there be winners without money? Follow the money.

    A good name does more for you than Google. can help (or ‘hurt’) you. “Googleproof” with a good .com domain.

    Reply
  6. Observer

    There are 1900 ants in a glass box. Can you identify the tallest 10 ants from them ? I don’t see any .whatsoever more promising than .biz or.net. Why should any particular .whatever be attractive than .biz or .net ?

    Reply
  7. HowieCrosby

    I think the geo and travel might stand a chance, they seem logical, especially if the prefix relates and makes sense. Not that I’m investing.

    Reply
  8. Robin

    Personally I like .art and for a while I thought .green may have some potential. I think the whole “green” terminology has passed its point of use fullness as every brand out there now calls its self green. Truthfully I will take the wait and see investment approach maybe picking up a few .art because I have personal a interest in art.

    Reply
  9. Scott Alliy

    which gtld extensions will be best for domain investors? Good question Rick, Three important factors will determine the answer IMO. First the historical market acceptance (i.e. proof) of extension words like .free. Second, the financial wherewithall of the registry owners of the extensions. Third the marketing skills of their team or third party associates.
    My advice to domain investors is to thoroughly research the marketing and management teams of each gtld extension that they are considering investing in.

    Reply
  10. ATLAS.ME

    I don’t know about dot-less domains, if that happens, google would be opposition to that, with his Chrome search bar automatic keyword search. :)

    Reply
  11. Bruno M. Kebran

    I am thinking geo such as .nyc, .berlin, .tokyo, .miami, .london, .mosco, .madrid, .paris, .quebec and .africa some old one such .la may break out too.

    Why this list.

    1. they are non disruptive and therefore complements to existing gtld successes.
    2. because they are targeted to specific locations, I see search engines promoting the heck out of them in the new arms race to rule local search.
    3. They might benefit from the network effect because of the perceived identity and kewlness they afford buyers. (i am from here and i am kewl too). and some like .quebec are going to make a statement.

    I sold a .la domain because the buyer saw a competitor’s restaurant flier with a new .la website so he did not want to be left behind in the competitive wars.

    But again success factors will depend on mass adoption, protracted promotions(.la and .nyc are getting a good start), the value proposition they add to the customer especially in local orientated markets.
    My 2 cents.

    Reply
  12. DonnyM

    .WEB by a landslide- $$$-
    Category extensions will not make it on a big scale we have already seen that.
    So I am staying away from all the blog,music,deals,eco and the rest. I can’t waste my money or take a chance on these. Not to say people will not make money but I am only going to focus on 1 maybe 2 at the very most.

    I think .web has a chance to replace .net as the second most popular extension in 5 years. I would rather own insurance.web than insurance.net.

    My money will be on .web the term is already in the consumers mind and has been for the past 15 years. If .web does not make it nothing else will. >.Com wins.
    DonnyM

    Reply
  13. JBS

    From an investment angle, I think the geos, especially .vegas and .nyc are a good bet for finding end user sales or (eventually) building out, especially if you acquire good one to two word category domains – freeslots.vegas, events.nyc, etc.

    For most new extensions though, the right of the dot is the valuable keyword and there just aren’t that many valuable keywords available for the left of the dot that combine well. Even with a great extension like .cars, just how many “valuable” keywords combine well with it? The best ones might be “used” or “new”. But, how many combinations besides those could ever be worth even 5 figures? Maybe city names like dallas.cars, etc. but none of those will ever have “home run” potential. I might “risk” a few grand on the new gtlds, but I am still “investing” in dot com.

    Reply
  14. Domenclature.com

    New gTLDs: Putting Things in Perspective

    What becomes of the new gTLDs depends entirely on human behavior. We all have one thing in common, and that is human experience. We don’t know what it is to be a cat, a dog, or an ant. But we have an idea what it is to be human. That is a fact. So, we can start from there.

    What would a reasonable person do once these new gTLDs are introdruced? That is our question to answer.

    Who are the primary actors? This debate is often couched between .COM and the newGTLDs, but there are many more actors each with their own interest. And each a formidable enigma. Let’s see, we have:

    1. New Registries 2. Domainers 3.Business End-users 4. Civilians (Surfers and Searchers) 5. Search-engines (Google, Bing, Yahoo…) 6. Old School Registries and Registrars (Verisign, Godaddy) 7. dot COM 8. ccTLDs and Regular TLDs (.De, .Co … .net, .info, .Org).

    Let’s take a look at New Registries, who are obviously a proponent, and supporter of the nGTLD scheme. They will try to maximize utility. So will the Consumer. However, the Utility-Maximizing Rule is calculable. We know that the consumer budget is finite. Often times, consumers choose and buy one domain name, and they are done with it. Suppose that a consumer’s preferences can be represented by the utility function U = f(X, Y) where X and Y represent the amounts of goods X and Y consumed. Our consumer’s problem is to maximize utility subject to the constraint that total expenditures on the two goods equals income: I = PXX + PYY.

    To solve this problem, we form the function V = f(X, Y) + l (I – PXX – PYY). (This function is called a “Lagrangian” and the variable l is known as the “Lagrange multiplier.” As long as l is not equal to zero, maximizing V is equivalent to maximizing U subject to the income constraint, since V and U are equivalent only for those values of X and Y for which the budget constraint is fulfilled: I – PXX – PYY = 0.) To maximize utility, all the partial derivatives of this Lagrange equation must be set equal to zero:
    ¶ V/¶ X = ¶ f/¶ X – l PX = 0
    ¶ V/¶ Y = ¶ f/¶ Y – l PY = 0
    ¶ V/¶ l = I – PXX – PYY = 0 (Note that this condition fulfills the requirement imposed by the budget constraint.)

    These three conditions represent three equations in the three unknowns—X, Y, and l . We can use the first two equations to eliminate l : From the first, we see that l = and the second equation can also be solved for l to obtain l = . Since both of these expressions equal l , they must equal each other: = . The terms in the numerators are the marginal utilities of goods X and Y, respectively, so this is the condition that we require. Maximum utility is achieved when the marginal utility per dollar of each good is the same: . Of course, the final equation implies that the consumer’s budget must be exhausted as well. (We assume that the second-order conditions for a maximum are fulfilled.)
    Alternatively, the first two equations could be solved as follows. Add l PX to both sides of the first equation and l PY to both sides of the second to obtain ¶ f/¶ X = l PX and ¶ f/¶ Y = l PY. Next, divide the first of these equalities by the second to obtain . The term on the left, the ratio of the marginal utilities, is known as the “marginal rate of substitution,” the rate at which a consumer is willing to substitute X for Y. In this formulation, we see that maximum utility requires that the consumer’s marginal rate of substitution be equal to the ratio of the prices of the two goods. That is, a consumer will adjust purchases of the two goods until her willingness to trade one for the other just matches the rate at which they can be traded in the marketplace, as given by the ratio of their prices.

    We will look at the other major actors later, and get to some conclusions.

    Reply
  15. UFO

    .shop will be the winner by a country mile. If Amazon pick it up and do what I;ve said in the past then they are certainly going to smash some holes in the ecommerce market beyond the damage they’d already done. If EBay had half a brain it would have gone after .shop but it didn’t because they evidently have ^*897 ^&^ for Directors.

    Reply
  16. Bobo

    This is exactly right. Those are two perfectly good extensions that definitely would have been top of the new gTLD application list if they didn’t already exist, yet we know they’re not particularly valuable or even considered by the average web user. There’s no reason to believe that the 1000 new extensions, many of which are vastly inferior to .net and .biz, will be successful. They may make money in the short term landrush (albeit in a *very* diluted landrush), but over a few years they will taper off. Remember that these newbie registrars can’t just close their doors – they have an obligation to registrants to operate these extensions. There will be much pain and sorrow in the next few years.

    Reply
  17. Chris

    I don’t see how any new “after the dot” extension will make any significant impact, other than to increase demand and value for what we once considered a second or third choice domain like .net, .biz or a ccTLD for that matter. If I had to pick a front runner it would be .App simply because it has the most relevance in today’s society.

    Reply
  18. Purple and Blue

    Here is my list…I think the extensions that will do really great are .museum, .aero, .travel, .info, .biz, .mobi, .xxx and .jobs. In fact, past ICANN survey have shown that each of these are in extraordinarily high demand. Huh, whats that you say? They all already exist and each has already colossally failed? Well, what makes any of you think that a gtld .whatever is going to do better? Hint, it won’t. Stick with .com’s. It’s the only extension that people trust and won’t leak traffic to your competitors.

    Reply
  19. UFO

    The reason for these extensions is so ICANN can get more revenues. It must be facing a type of diminishing marginal return on the main extensions, so they must bring new product to market.

    Just like in the UK when Nominet wanted the new .uk, they said it was for security purposes bla bla bla…. but really it was nothing more than a money grab.

    Reply
  20. Cyborg

    I look forward to new ways of creating memorable domains, and new TLDs will definitely help this.

    I like creating fun concepts like…

    urld.us

    ..and new extensions will open new doors! Maybe not for everybody, but there will be some real gems I am sure!

    Reply
  21. Henry

    I agree and .web has been trying to be approved since the beginning. It is the best one. All the rest will not work.

    Reply
  22. tcr

    This is easy. the transliterations of .com in their native language. reasons for this
    1. They already have a head start. They have a good number registered already as idn,com. and we already see some used as developed sites.
    2. They meet ricks rules for great domains
    3. .com is king and these are .coms
    4. Good ones receive typein traffic. Some receive great traffic. And make revenue
    5.You can own great generic names that are found as categories found at the top of the yellow pages
    6. They pass the radio test, If you said this over the radio in Japan creditcards.com most would not understand. but if you said it in Japanese クレジットカード.コム everyone gets your message.
    7. The branding of .com has been going on for years in these countries,
    8. Ascii domains will leak traffic to a lot of these names
    9. You need good domainer support for a successful gtld and these already have some local domainer support
    10. Need, want, desire? i can see a need, want, desire, for names like Hotel,Cars,Jobs,Games,Music,Real Estate,Phone,Travel, Insurance,lawyer
    Movies,Loan,Sex. ect in the following native script with .com

    so see these already have a proven blueprint for success to follow
    Japanese コム : com Russian: ком : .com コム Thai คอม : .com Arabic:
    كوم : .com Hebrew: קום : .com
    .

    Reply
    1. Rick Schwartz

      I would not label it as a disaster.
      In business you win some you lose some.
      I feel fortunate that I can take a loss like that, learn from it and it have no impact financially.

      Reply
  23. UFO

    I tend to think the domino theory will hold. Once one starts falling it will build and take others down and it will jst fan out.

    I think at least 10 will be successful from a registry perspective, and more than 10 will be successful on a domain by domain, case by case basis. Domainers will only make money imho after the first round of drops once everyone gets over the false expectations and reality hits.

    What gets me though, is most new gTLDs at best are 2 word domains and the generic gTLDs like .web will always be second runners to .com like .net

    .com will always be the .gold standard for names.

    Reply
  24. AlanR

    99% will fail in the long run but a lot of registries will make a lot of money in the short term. That’s what this whole thing is all about, making money, not making more variety like they would like you to believe. Maybe one or two will get to the level of .biz at best but definitely not worth the time or money invested.

    Here is the main reason why we will never see anything come close to dotcom again. In the beginning, dotcom was more or less a sleeper. Nobody gave it much thought and so it slowly gained traction from end users. By the time most investors took notice, it was already a success but the investors were few and far between back then and they made a killing. Now 20 years later, there are thousands of eager investors who want to either repeat their success like they did with dotcom or want to make a killing based on all the legends out there about dotcom.

    Reply
  25. AlanR

    Since it is the end users who decide on which extension is successful or not, they will be crowded out of the market by all the investors grabbing all the good domains. Investors in new tlds are their own worst enemy! Here is how you will be able to tell a loser. They will be the ones that most will invest in, plain and simple! If any of the tlds ever get acceptance, chances are it will be another sleeper but that could be 5 to 10 years out.

    BTW, what’s the secret to posting longer comments? I try to keep it to a min but sometimes, things get out of control. I use Firefox and after about 12 or so lines, the “Post” button disappears.

    Reply
    1. Scott Alliy

      The workaround I use is create post in text program like notepad then copy and paste into blog post.

      BTW I will be glad to see this play out sooner than later.

      Reply
  26. reader

    .aero is already doing well. At the major aviation trade shows the number of companies using the extension is astounding. The airline industry is also using it such as loyaltyplus.aero

    Reply
  27. AlanR

    Thanks Scott! I’ve tried “Word” and it doesn’t work with longer posts so I’ll try NotePad next time.

    Reply
  28. UFO

    @AlanR
    I used to have the same prob on IE. Its done away with some patch update. If you want to continue as is, then I’d suggest typing it on word and then cut and paste on this blog and VERY QUICKLY clicking post comment before it disappears. You can get it to work if you quick enough.

    Reply
  29. Jeff Schneider

    Hello UFO, / ” @AlanR I used to have the same prob on IE. Its done away with some patch update. If you want to continue as is, then I’d suggest typing it on word and then cut and paste on this blog and VERY QUICKLY clicking post comment before it disappears. You can get it to work if you quick enough. ”

    What we do is comment abridged versions here and then put full bored versions with fundamental underpinnings, for the Savvy followers , on Domain Kings Joint Venture Group LinkedIn. If you are not plugged in there, you are missing a Strategic advantage.

    Gratefully, Jeff Schneider (Contact Group) (Metal Tiger)

    Reply
  30. JBS

    Lots of silly choices that will turn out to be complete blunders. One “visionary” is certain every CEO will want a .CEO domain. Just my opinion – no respectable CEO would be caught dead utilizing one, only wannabes… And the more the wannabes register them, the less any real CEO would want to be associated with them.

    Then of course, .LUXURY – at $799 per domain minimum, this will also be an epic fail…

    Of course, I don’t think they actually did any focus groups or anything before applying for most of these extensions.

    Reply
  31. BidYum

    .WEB is the only one that will will prevail and prosper.

    I could give you a detailed list of 100 reasons, but we all know them.

    Reply
  32. Ramahn

    Rick, it’s still .confusion for me. You talk a lot about parallels… Nestor got a 1900% surge from CONFUSED investors thinking they were buying stock in NEST, the IOT company Google bought.

    Reply
  33. Can

    I can’t understand most of people who thinks new gtlds will fail. There is always some opportunities in domain market I think. I am small investor and I have a budget etc. 1000 USD. I am planning to register 30-40 well targeted domains. I made a good shortlist and I believe some of them will succeed.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.