It's the eve of December and December has always been a month reserved for reflection, rest, family, fun and looking to the next year and how it will unfold. The best way to do that is to look back at what i thought about things last year.So here is my post about 2009. I got some right, I got some wrong and some things are yet tounfold. I may have been a bit early on some of these things. But they are still coming. I still believe Sears will fold. Just the time may be off. When I said 'Your favorite restaurant will go out of business' I put a 'Maybe' in not to go too far off the ledge. Well, my favorite restaurant DID go out of business. How about yours? Are they holding on for dear life?
2010 is going to be really tough. Really unpredictable. Really a lot of turmoil. But there will also be opportunity the likes we have never seen before. Just keep your seat belt fastened, this ride is far from over and it will be the Christmas numbers that are the TRUE and FIRST indication of how things really are. Just don't fall for the 'Spin.' For example, yesterday I heard a report that foot traffic was way up over last year. Then went on to say that sales were down 8%. That is a HUGE number and in a moment I am going to show you how much worse. While the sales were down 8%, the hidden number is what they are buying. Or should I say what they are not buying. We are buying 'Gifts of necessity' as opposed to luxury gifts. That means we are buying things that we would have bought anyway and labeling a Christmas Gift. That is great actually. However the retailers don't know this is going on and it will mess up all their projections for 2010. Going to be an HORRIFIC first quarter in retail following a dismal Holiday season.
So there is an illusion that things are getting better. But it is nothing more than the eye of the storm passing overhead. The experts are clueless. What is coming is still coming.
Have a GREAT Day!