In Numbers I Trust. Numbers Don’t Lie. People Lie.

Morning Folks!!


All the words in the world can say one thing and it won’t matter one iota if the numbers don’t match the words. My compass is numbers. Numbers don’t lie, people lie. Pretty simple starting point. Your job in life is to be skeptical, however, not to the point of dismissing new numbers, facts and discoveries. Numbers should be your friend. Your closest adviser. The determining factor in most cases.


I am a mathematician by hobby. SIMPLE MATH. Addition, subtraction, division, percentages and equations. I really sucked in Algebra until I became really good in Algebra. The rest really was made for the calculator. But somewhere along the way they drew that line way too low and many never learned the basics.


So while others use words with motives behind them as their compass, I use numbers that are not clouded by words. Not bent and bastardized by words. Not adulterated and whored by motives. Numbers paint one picture and words can paint another. A mirage if you allow yourself to do that. A Blue Sky.


Folks swallow bait instead of doing the hard work of finding out themselves. They use a calculator because they don’t know the multiplication tables. Never heard of the “Ben Franklin Method”. Don’t understand that in negotiations it is a game and anything goes. That “John Jones” has eyes and your job is to get into those eyes to see what he sees because what you see is meaningless if you want to sell them something.


Everyone in business MUST be a salesman. So if you never sold anything, the transition may be difficult. Every successful businessperson must wear a number of hats to succeed. Psychologist is one of them so you can relate and understand reactions and human nature and other emotions.


But through all that, numbers never lie and when someone says it is only a penny or a nickel or whatever, tell them that billions are made a penny at a time. When they say this or that does not count, then you know either are the words coming from their mouth.


Those that valued domains on a PPC multiple used a flawed and useless model. I am on record for years saying that. Now look. Who wants to use that model? Here’s the secret. It was NFG then and it is NFG now. It was based on something sure to fluctuate. That is what markets do. They go up, they pop and they go down and crash. Then they repeat the process.


If you feed the calculator the wrong numbers and you don’t know they are wrong and don’t know what the approximate answer should be, then you are lost. In a fog. No way to even realize what a wrong answer is and what a right answer is or anything even close. That is the same with opportunity. If you don’t know what to look for, there is little hope on grabbing it. Especially when opportunity usually is invisible and seldom if ever has a neon sign showing the way.


You can’t be first on the next thing until you clean that up. It will keep you boxed in of your own device forever. Don’t do that to yourselves. Make numbers your friends. They will never let you down and they will never lie to you.


Have a GREAT Day!

Rick Schwartz

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16 thoughts on “In Numbers I Trust. Numbers Don’t Lie. People Lie.

  1. Robbie

    Agreed Rick!
    I own a share in a LLL.com domain very strong domain name worth approx $100k+ It does terrible in ppc and we would never sell it based on those facts…
    PPC Multiples are dead, they aren’t a business model to base sales on!
    PPC Multiples were good for domain flippers but never gave a true value of a domain name…
    A domain, Should be sold on it value i.e. Business.com or CreditCards.com both sold for Seven Figures based on Domain value!
    Turn them into actual businesses and they sell for hundreds of millions of dollars…
    Well that’s my two cents on it…

    Reply
  2. Leonard Britt

    A former accounting professor of mine at UGA frequently would remind his students to”read beyond the numbers…”
    While numbers do paint a picture, one shouldn’t be overly reliant on just one number. A South Florida geo website’s traffic is four times what it was six months ago. But how is that traffic being monetized? Until I can sell ad space – Adsense. :)

    Reply
  3. Rick Schwartz

    Leonard point taken.
    That is where”Gut” and experience and history and instinct and all the rest factor in. Plus reading the numbers to define success. Point is to include all numbers, ignore none and then apply everything you have learned until that moment in time and always have other eyes looking for things that might have been overlooked.
    Numbers are methodical and so should the thinking process when evaluating anything and everything.

    Reply
  4. twitter.com/TwitRestaurants

    When someone tells me,”It’s only…” in a negotiation I reply,”You’re right…you pay it.”
    Great quotes:
    “Take care of the pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves.”
    “You can’t take percentages to the bank.”

    Reply
  5. David Carter

    Rick, the mistake that most people make is that they look at the wrong numbers.
    You already mentioned PPC revenues and the crap that’s churned by tools like Estibot etc., but in my opion, it’s the numbers that you can make from your domain using your own business model that count if you’re buying.
    If you’re selling, it’s your job to know your buyer’s business.
    If domainers stuck to buying domains in markets they know, instead of speculating on everything, they might find that make a whole lot more money with their domains.

    Reply
  6. Michael Hallisey

    Wait! numbers are great for lying haha.
    How many gallons of gas do we have left? Will anybody tell us the truth? Their is a whole science to tricking people using real numbers in statistics. What about the hanging chad? Human counting error is a bigger problem.

    Reply
  7. Number's up

    Do you really believe in numbers that much? If that’s the case, how does it feel knowing that the country we live in is completely and absolutely, bankrupt. Chew on that one.

    Reply
  8. Damir Tankovic

    Yeah Rick you are spot on – the numbers tell the story of glory or suffering.
    I like your post – straight to the point NO BS – Great work Rick

    Reply
  9. Rick Schwartz

    “Do you really believe in numbers that much? If that’s the case, how does it feel knowing that the country we live in is completely and absolutely, bankrupt. Chew on that one.”
    If you have been reading my posts you would know that I am getting rid of Dollars and buying Gold, Silver, Collectibles, Domains and other assets that are not the dollar. The debt is our single biggest problem. Because of it that the dollar will lose a lot of buying power in the next few years.
    I don’t see any currency as being stable. If the dollar goes, it won’t go alone.
    What is sickening is that with the DAILY Interest alone, they could probably build a brand new school in every district of Detroit. You can’t help others until this is fixed no matter Right or Left. We are very close to being at the point of no return. Every day they waste arguing gets us that much closer.
    You are witnessing the world’s biggest Ponzi Scheme and if it goes south, most will be wiped out. The numbers tell the story. Don’t get me started.
    The best example I have heard is that you weigh 300 lbs and the governments version of a diet is instead of weighing 400lbs at the end of the year you weigh only 380. That is called”Success” and they all high 5 each other. What is going on is criminal.

    Reply
  10. Sneuman

    Rick, Thanks as always for a great read.”You are witnessing the world’s biggest Ponzi Scheme and if it goes south, most will be wiped out. The numbers tell the story. Don’t get me started.” I’ve felt the same way when I got robbed on a naked short on one of my stocks. Our banks and governments have counterfeited the value of our currency with banks not even wanting you to have physical paper certs for your stock. Can’t trace it without a paper trail and now you see the same thing in the housing market.
    Domains!!!
    Regards

    Reply
  11. Steve Cheatham

    Numbers talk, bullshit walks.
    If your business plan is based on another company’s stated business plan then your entire model is flawed.
    Here is some math to ponder…
    How many times has Google changed their business plan leaving many entreperuers who trusted them holding worthless businesses? More than I can count on both hands.
    How many times has a”Get Rich on Domains” book hit the streets stating Google’s infalliable business plan as the backbone of the plan? There are about a hundred on the market now.
    Use common sense and math. It works every time.

    Reply
  12. Rick Schwartz

    Steve, we certainly could make a case that Google has been the WORST business partner in the history of business. They have destroyed businesses and business models across the board.

    Reply

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