Industry is not in trouble. However many sponsors and individual domainers are!
Prices that domains are fetching are very good. However the reason some
domainers and companies are selling is not very good. In fact, it is very bad.
That “Monthly nut” that we all have is eating some up. Some domainers, some
companies, some sponsors. They are FORCED to sell because of their overhead.
Because of salaries. Because if they don’t, their spreadsheets are gonna look
like shit in 2009 and they are scrambling. Many have watched their business
model totally disrupted. Their incomes have been slashed and their bills have
not. The leads to a lot of weak companies in the space. Those that are ahead on
this may be in much better shape. Those can take advantage of the weakness of
others. Great bargains are out there. Luckily, more than half of folks that buy
domain don’t know diamonds from glass. And if they do figure it out they had to
waste hours reading analytics instead of having the gut to know the difference
in a split second.
Here is an
outright prediction. On the surface it may look good. But it isn’t. My
prediction is that Ron Jackson will report that 2009 will be the #1 year for
total domain sales that he can track. With the year 3.5 months away from the
end, I feel confident we will break that record. Problem is it won’t be a
record broken from strength, it is a record born out of weakness. While income is
extremely important, it is the overhead these companies and individuals have that
is driving this avalanche of sales. While many focus on more income and we
should, all I can say is getting your monthly overhead in line is what will
determine your survival.
The worst is
not behind us. Huge consolidation and outright collapses will happen in the
coming months. There are pockets of hopes, but canyons of despair. There won’t
be headlines announcing it, they will just quietly disappear. Unless they owe a
lot of money. Then we’ll hear about.