It Takes 20 Years to Germinate the Seed of Change. Here is How I Picked 20 Years.

Afternoon Folks!!

Some think I just pulled the 20 year number out of thin air. They would be thinking wrong. It was a calculated number based on more factors than I have time to list. But it starts with 18-36 months that most any business needs to germinate. It includes population, human behavior, parallels and other timelines throughout history.

So when I considered all the variables and the enormity of what was about to take place and how long that adaptation would take, it came out to 20 years. I looked at it from several different views and each of those views yielded the same answer. 20 years. And when I wrote about this crap in 1996 you can imagine the even bigger crap I was met with and a chorus of laughter. Laughter that I used to reinforce the course I could clearly see and nobody else would even look at.

Along the way I had to prove certain things at certain points or it would all be blah, blah, blah. And so I did. And now on the eve of year 18 I am going to savor and enjoy and relish in what is at our doorstep. The crystallization and the reality of it all happening exactly as scheduled.

For years I have talked about mile markers that marked the way as proof of where this was all heading. Here is a post from December 201o entitled:

"My Annual Post 2010, The Viral Social Mania and Now….The Home Stretch 2011-2015"


What is the difference now in 2013? The difference is what I have been saying and seeing are now within sight for many. Those mountain ranges can now be seen. It is not a 20 year plan any longer. It is now merely a 2-3 year plan. A manageable plan. That timeline and time range is within sight and I am just going to enjoy the hell out of it! Hope you enjoy it too.


In 2003 men.com $1.32MM sale was a rarity and made newspapers around the world and even on CNN and other broadcast media. Today a 1.35MM sale is not a big deal at all. There have been more 7 figure deals done in the last 90 days than perhaps the preceding few years. More are coming. Many more. An avalanche of these deals are coming. It was need, want, desire that could be seen nearly 18 years ago when they were a value few could see or understand.


Rick Schwartz



13 thoughts on “It Takes 20 Years to Germinate the Seed of Change. Here is How I Picked 20 Years.

  1. domain guy

    yes it takes 20 years for new tech to become common place. microwaves,cell phones etc.
    However after 10 yrs men.com is peddling pornography. This may not be the highest use of this name. A built in audience of over 500k a yr. where is legitimate men info? men’s health for example? what about all the men magazines and newspapers that have failed over the last 10 yrs.

    Reply
  2. Observer

    It seems to me that many medium sized end-users are waiting for the new whatevers to be on the playground. I observe there are not so many mid to upper five figure domain deals recently.

    Reply
  3. enoma9

    While your continuous talk about how much you knew about things in the past before anyone else did and how well you predicted the future of domains makes no real sense to new domainers or those who have been in this field for the last 3 to 5 years. It is easy to talk about things when you have a couple of big sales behind you (but nothing else selling all these years). You are not like the thousands of domainers waiting for that big domain deal to happen. So it would be nice if you could also focus on the vast majority of domainers who are not in your shoes because those domain names you registered 15 years ago are no longer available to be bought as cheaply as you got them for. What sense does it make talking about a 20 year plan I don’t know and some of your so-called followers might poke fun here but I have enough knowledge behind me to justify whatever I say. Increase your knowledge on the real things happening in the domaining world. Don’t just talk about things that affect you since the rest of us are not in your position and don’t aspire to be.

    Reply
    1. Rick Schwartz

      enoma9, your comment sticks out like a sore thumb here. So while you complain, I got this email below overnight. Remember, they are reading the same words you are. But they are using what I say effectively. So what makes no sense to you, seems to make sense to the majority of others. That would indicate that YOU have to make some changes, not me. Time to wake up TODAY and start your own 20 year plan instead of whining and thumping your chest. If you don’t get anything here, stop reading.

      “Hi Rick, I wanted to stop and personally thank you for sharing your insights on your blog. I just started buying domains in July. Your personal words have been very informative and keeps me on the path I am striving for.”

      Reply
  4. M Altaf Hossain

    @enoma9: It depends how do you perceive it. What we learned here is priceless. We cannot afford to stop reading this blog at all. It is up to the reader how does he accept it, and what way he uses it. W use Ricks contribution & experience in our daily life of business. Whether it may be domain or any other issues he addressed through his blog. example, last week Rick posted Twiiter founder Williams’ comments on ‘internet’ 20 years before and now. I went deep into it and read most of the relevant stories. Interesting! Every post is interesting to me. I enjoy it, no matter how much I became successful. My knowledge is my power.

    Reply
  5. UFO

    @enoma9

    You’re wrong, there’s quite a bit of stuff around if you go looking for it. Just last night I was looking for a complementary domain to one I own and think has huge financial potential…. and a major US bank registered it in Jan this year. So, the big fish are circling.

    .com is king and the more globalised these corporates become the more they need global portholes and means to differentiate.

    If you think .com’s are expensive now….just see what they are worth in 5 years. Tripple what they are now.

    Reply
  6. enoma9

    Sore thumb. I have been following your posts for over 3 years. Guess you are one of those guys who doesn’t do much research before speaking about someone else. Either way, thanks for taking the time to reply. Means a lot to me when someone reveals their real identity in the comments.

    Reply
    1. Rick Schwartz

      Gee that is some deep anger there. Nobody can help you with that attitude. I am sorry your thought process is tainted. Go ahead and blame me. I detest people that lash out when my only crime was trying to help.

      You are a prisoner of your own human nature.

      Reply
  7. enoma9

    LOL! Are you talking about yourself? A moment of self reflection perhaps?
    Anyway, you still seem to think that you can hand register domains at regular fee and sell them for a Million dollars then you are more stupid than your blog’s tagline. It’s fine not to agree with what I say but there hardly any reason to waste your energy being resentful at your age.

    Reply
  8. enoma9

    Spelling mistakes, hurried replies. I must be getting older than you seem to be (and much faster too). There is no denying that you love sharing whatever little knowledge you have and that’s cool. So forgive me for trying to make a point and let’s end this while I am still sober and have the goodness in me to forget all about this one. By the way, my name is Savio D’Silva. Want to get even still then you can just Google me.

    Reply
  9. Susan Carpenter

    Savio D’Silva you should learn some manners. There was no reason for your mean outburst here other than to be a jerk.

    Reply
  10. Ramahn

    Good stuff Rick. Its still not to late to get into the game, but get in now. Like UFO said, if you think domains are expensive now…

    Like I always say, new products and services are created each year/month…. from technology and new ideas. New words are added to the dictionary every year. Phablet.com was hand reg in 2010 (IIRC), for example. Opportunity is all around you.

    Reply
  11. M Altaf Hossain

    Savio D’Silva- which one of 59000? Indian? They are polite people. why is he then talking being drank. If you don’t like a blog or forum just leave it and mind your business. That’s ok.

    Reply

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