Let's take a ramblin' walk down the Domain Channel and look in on a few things.
Page Howe articulated an interesting point on DomainSherpa.com a couple weeks ago. He says what I believe as well that if you own the .com why would you swim downstream. On the other hand if you don't own the .com you want to always be upgrading until you do. Simple, accurate and priceless.
So once I have a .com, I seldom buy anything on the lower grade extensions. However I am always bombarded by folks trying to sell me the .net version of the domain I own, country codes, .org, .mobi, .younameit. But there is no need for those other lower tld extensions for what I need to do in life. None. So you can stop spamming me, never gonna happen. No need, no want, no desire, no value = no sale. So stop wasting YOUR time!
I am not going to get Ricksblog.whatever. or even RicksBlog.blog and since I have already branded RicksBlog.com, I don't see the importance of Ricks.blog. But let's say for the sake of argument, I get the domain. What am I going to do with it. I am going to point it to RickBlog.com. So where is the expansion? Where is the social redeeming value? Some may open new blogs on it but the vast majority won't. They will either do what I just described or move from a very crappy .com to .blog. Maybe. Most won't even do that.
Defensive registrations don't make an extension valuable. If every trademark holder got their .xxx and just paid the fees each year and never hooked it up, what value is there other than to the registry and registrar? Where exactly does the domain investor come into that equation who wants to use his money to make more money? Sorry, I don't get it. Want to buy some .xxx domains for my purchase price?
Now each extension will come to market with their own pros and cons. You have to figure out that mousetrap and get it right or you lose. And when you lose, you lose your money. And when you lose all your money you are no longer a domainer. So if/when you do figure it out, then buy wisely and hold on for the long term. If you are not prepared to hold on for 10-20 years you are likely to be disappointed. And if you are looking to buy today to flip tomorrow, better get it right each time and still be financially prepared to hold on for 10-20 years. At that time you can re-evaluate.
When I hand register a domain I multiply the cost by 10 because that is the real cost to do business. Holding on for a minimum of 10 years. So it is not an $8-$10 purchase, it is an $80-$100 purchase.
The consumer will be picking the winners and losers not any of us. Sorry. They have been .com brainwashed for 20 years now. So the target audience you will really go after is just being born or is just a few years old. He will grow up with more extensions and will be more open to them. BUT, that does not negate the fact that more money will be spent collectively promoting .com even in his lifetime than all the other extensions added together. That is the mountain that will always keep .com where it is.
Whatever.whatever may be the greatest thing since ice cream. But again, they are not in control. When they go to use the extension and the results are not as expected or worse, what do you think a rational businessman would do other than to pull the plug as Mr. Johnson did with O.co. They did not want to do that. They did not it. intend to do that. But they were hit with reality and were FORCED to do it.
Domains have value for several reasons and when those reasons are not present, guess what? Neither is the value.
All I can do is point out pitfalls regardless of how things unfold. None of us know jack right now. But we do have evidence and parallels and that allows us to draw conclusions and it also points us in different directions.
I am loving it. The eyes of the world are going to be focuses on our little pond more and more and I don't see any downside. I see mirages. I see wishful thinking. I see ways to manufacture money. I see ways to exploit what is coming and I make no bones about it. Everyone is in it for the $$$. Nobody is trying to save the world.
But am I really going to swim downstream? No, probably not. However maybe there will be some keywords that just make sense. That are naturals. I can just put them away and see what happens. But most domainers will still pick 3 word .whatever with stupid misspells and think they have something. They do. It's called a recurring bill.
I just ask questions. Some have answers, some don't, some point one direction or another. It's called examining something fully and coming to a conclusion. But in business while you should not be weak, you need to be agile. Every new piece of info REQUIRES a re-evaluation of the subject whatever it is. Not doing that is a huge weakness disguised as a strength when it is not. You don't did in your heals like politicians, you always look for answers. And you follow those answers even when you don't like that answer. Especially when you don't like it. You can't ignore it. That is th seed of failure right there. Knowledge never hurt anyone however ignorance can kill ya!
In the last month I have paid VERY close attention to tv ads. I never see a .biz on tv. I never see most extensions on TV. I have seen .tv and .info ads but only 1 each. I have seen countless ads for .com. Countless. Every single ad. Yes, it could change. But where is the indications so far and there already is choice?
So as of today, there are no other conclusions to draw given the facts we already have, know and are not disputed. But each day new info comes. It will either reinforce what we already believe or it will go against it. As I said, ignore nothing!! To ignore means you FIGHT to stay ignorant. You used ENERGY to remain uninformed. That is the road to failure. An open mind is the road to success and an open mind is never threatened. He is always armed with info and facts that trump emotions and hoping.
Whatever the size of your wallet, whether it be $1000, $10,000, $100,000 or millions, your job is first keep those dollars safe and second, grow them as fast as you can. So if you buy that $1000 domain and double your money and do that less than TEN TIMES, you become a millionaire. And what if it took you 3 years to accomplish? That would be bad? You could do it in 1 if you pick right.
$1000 becomes, $2000. $2000 becomes $4000. $4000 becomes $8000, $8000 becomes $16,000. $16,000 becomes $32,000. $32,000 becomes $64,000. $64,000 becomes $128,000. $128,000 becomes $256,000. $256,000 becomes $512,000 and $512,000 breaks the million dollar mark! And that's only if you just double your money each time.